Giants vs Saints Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Offenses No-Show in Return to Superdome

Two struggling offenses meet in New Orleans' return home to the Superdome for this Week 4 clash. New York's offense isn't doing much and runs into a strong Saints D, which is why we like the Under. Find out more in our Giants vs. Saints picks.

Last Updated: Sep 29, 2021 12:45 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
James Bradberry New York Giants NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Saints finally get to play at home after Hurricane Ida sent them packing to open the season. Sean Payton’s club will welcome a struggling and injured New York Giants team that has been held to 14 points or fewer twice to open the year. 

The Saints head into their Week 4 matchup as 8-point home favorites which is more indicative of the state of the Giants than it is of how well the New Orleans offense is playing. Despite the hefty chalk, this game has one of the lowest totals on the board at 43.

Check out our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Giants vs. Saints on October 3.

Giants vs Saints odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

New Orleans was -6.5 on the lookahead on Saturday and then opened at -8.5 before heading south a full point to -7.5 and then back to -8. The total got immediately smashed to the Under after opening at 47 on the lookahead and getting bet down to 43 after neither offense showed much in Week 3. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Giants vs Saints picks

Picks made on 9/29/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Giants vs Saints game info

Location: Ceasars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Giants at Saints betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key injuries

Giants: Sterling Shepard WR (Out), Darius Slayton WR (Out), Blake Martinez LB (Out), Ben Bredeson OL (Out).
Saints: Terron Armstead LT (Out), Erik McCoy C (Out), Michael Thomas WR (Out), Tre’Quan Smith WR (Out), Marcus Davenport DE (Out), Kwon Alexander LB (Out), Desmond Trufant CB (Out), Montravius Adams DE (Out).

Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under 8-1 in the Giants’ last nine games as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Saints.

Giants vs Saints predictions

Picking a side between the Giants and Saints feels like a trick question. We don’t want to put our money on Jason Garrett’s offense but should Jameis Winston and the Saints really be an 8-point favorite after their performances in Weeks 2 and 3?

Many will look at the injuries on the Giants’ side — WR Sterling Shepard, WR Darius Slayton, LB Blake Martinez, and LG Ben Bredeson — and just dismiss New York in Week 4, especially with the Saints playing their home opener. But home-field advantage is becoming a myth with arguments that it’s worth anywhere from 0 to 1.9 points and the Giants are deep at wide receiver. New York has attempted just two passes of 20-plus yards and 2021 rookie Kadarius Toney will step into a slot role if Shepard sits. With Garrett’s offense being as bland as shredded wheat, these injuries to WRs shouldn’t have as big an impact as some expect.

Don’t get us wrong, this Giants’ offense is tough to back and possibly starting their fourth left guard in four games isn’t ideal. Neither is scoring 14 or fewer points in two of the three weeks, but this isn’t a big-play offense that takes chances. Against an elite New Orleans defense that has seven takeaways, playing conservatively might be New York’s best bet to cover. Saquon Barkley looked more like his 2019 self last week and should contribute on the ground and in the air, which is something New York backers would love to see.

New Orleans opened with a surprising beatdown of the Packers. However, it followed that up by getting trounced by Sam Darnold and the Panthers in Week 2 and covered versus the Patriots in Week 3 thanks to a plus-3 turnover rate, just two penalties against, and a pick-six but it lost the yards per play rate by 0.2 yards. There was a reason why the Saints entered that game as 3-point dogs — they are a one-dimensional team.

Winston hasn’t thrown for more than 150 yards in either of his three games and the offense has been blessed with short fields. New Orleans sits 19th in third-down conversion rate at 38 percent and is fourth last in yards per play at 4.3 yards — just above the Jets. The Saints are also dealing with some offensive injuries as well, with three-time Pro-Bowler LT Terron Armstead missing several weeks and center Erik McCoy still questionable. These are on top of injuries to Michael Thomas and Tre'Quan Smith, who is expected to miss Week 4 as well. Even new kicker Aldrick Rosas missed two field goals last week from 52 and 36 yards.  

The Saints have a Top 3 DVOA defense heading into this matchup but, at -8, we aren’t taking a team strictly on its defense. With such a low total (43 down from 47) this is a perfect angle for a big underdog with a low-total game. How well New York scores in the red zone will dictate how sweaty this game is for bettors.

The Giants' struggles in the red zone have carried over to this season. New York finished 31st in red-zone offense a year ago and finds itself in familiar territory again in 2021 with a 33 percent TD scoring percentage. New Orleans has been exceeding expectations in the RZ, scoring at an 88-percent clip which is unsustainable for a bottom-10 offense. Both defenses are in the Top 15 in RZ scoring percentage allowed, with the Saints being a Top-3 unit.

Outside of the 20, New York isn’t aggressive enough in the passing game to push us for the Over. Garrett abandoned his Week 2 game plan where the Giants scored 29 points and had nearly 400 total yards of offense and instead tried to feed Barkley more in the run and passing game last week. We could expect another healthy dose of the RB in Week 4 with all the injuries to the New York receiving corps.

If you thought the Giants' offense was slow, you haven’t seen the Saints. New Orleans sits second-last in plays per game at 55 and at just 4.3 yards per play this offense has gained the second-fewest yards in football, only better than the Bears. There's a reason this total got smashed to the Under. These are two bad offenses that don’t take risks and this game features one of the best defenses in the league. 

We are struggling to find some angles for this Over, even at a number that has moved so significantly. Both teams could be playing behind the sticks with the injuries to the Saints’ o-line and New York’s WRs. With a pair of inept offenses, third-and-longs could be a death sentence for the Over.

We feel we’ve done a pretty good job at lowlighting these offenses’ ability to move the ball. They both sit in the bottom-15 in yards per play and yards per pass, and New Orleans is 22nd in yards per rush. This is a game that will be won on special teams, defense, penalties and/or turnovers. 

Through three weeks, both teams have managed 10 total first-quarter points each while the Saints’ defense has surrendered just seven points in the first frame and New York has yet to concede a first-quarter point at all. The 1Q total can be had at 7.5 and is shaded to the Under. It’s a combined 0-6 O/U to start the year for both teams and a great stack bet to go along with the full game Under 43 and the Giants at +8.

The Superdome should be rocking which could take some time for both offenses to adjust. If both teams come out, play conservatively, don’t turn the ball over, and avoid punting deep inside their own zone, a TD and another score is a lot to ask in the first 15 minutes from either of these offenses.

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