Chiefs vs Eagles Week 4 Picks and Predictions: K.C. Gets Back on Track

Kansas City has dropped two straight games for the first time since October 2019 but enters a get-right spot in this Week 4 matchup against Philadelphia. Find out why we like K.C. as 7-point road faves in our Chiefs vs. Eagles picks.

Last Updated: Sep 29, 2021 1:33 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Kansas City Chiefs NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Eagles go from the frying pan to the fire, facing the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.

Philadelphia is on a short week after getting gashed for 41 points on Monday night and now faces Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs attack hungry for a victory after losing two straight for the first time since October 2019. The NFL betting odds are siding with KC, setting it as touchdown road favorites this Sunday.

We serve up our NFL free picks and predictions for Chiefs at Eagles on October 3.

Chiefs vs Eagles odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The current point spread isn’t that far off the lookahead line set for this non-conference game back in the spring, which had Kansas City giving eight points in Week 4. This line was sitting as low as -5.5 last week before the Eagles were squashed by Dallas 41-21 on Monday night. After that loss, it reopened at a touchdown and early action on the visitor has added the extra half-point hook at some shops. DraftKings sportsbook is still dealing Kansas City -7 (-110). Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Chiefs vs Eagles picks

Picks made on 9/29/2021 at 12:51 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Chiefs vs Eagles game info

Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Chiefs at Eagles betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key injuries

Chiefs: Frank Clark DE (Out), Willie Gay LB (Out), Charvarius Ward CB (Out), Rashad Fenton CB (Out).
Eagles: Lane Johnson OT (Out), Isaac Seumalo G (Out), Brandon Graham DE (Out), Mac McCain CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 35-17 in the Eagles’ last 52 home games (67% Unders). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Eagles.

Chiefs vs Eagles predictions

It doesn’t matter who your quarterback is: Turning the ball over four times is going to put any team in a tough spot. Kansas City couldn’t overcome those mistakes in Week 3, losing 30-24 to the L.A. Chargers at home, coming up short of the comeback with a 21-16 edge in the second half.

The team travels to the City of Brotherly Love in an attempt to stop the bleeding and is expected to have head coach Andy Reid on the sideline to face his former club after Reid was hospitalized with dehydration following last Sunday’s loss.

Could a two-game skid and rallying around their coach be the kick in the pants that the Chiefs need to finally cover a spread? Kansas City is 0-3 ATS so far in 2021 and has provided just two paydays for backers in its previous 14 outings overall.

For the sake of KC bettors, let’s hope that kick finds the butts of the defense, which ranks dead last in the NFL right now. The Chiefs are 32nd in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and lugging a +0.217 EPA per play after three games.

Philadelphia’s offense looked lost against Dallas, especially in the first half when it refused to run the football and picked up only three first downs. The final two quarters were better, but any glimmer of a comeback was snuffed out by Jalen Hurts throwing a pick-6 and penalties sapping momentum (the Eagles finished with 13 penalties for 86 yards).

Philly can’t afford to give Mahomes & Co. any bonus yards this Sunday. The Eagles have been whistled for a franchise-worst 35 infractions through three games and are on pace for the most penalties in NFL history. Add in injury issues on the offensive line and on defense, and it’s tough to back this team on such a tight turnaround.

Dallas’ offense picked apart the Eagles' defense and kept them guessing with a balanced attack, averaging 6.9 yards per play and amassing 27 first downs. The Chiefs actually moved the chains more in Week 3, with a league-high 33 first downs in the loss to the Chargers but shot themselves in the foot with two INTs and two lost fumbles.

Whichever side you’re betting in this Week 4 matchup — Chiefs or Eagles — prepare for an uncomfortable ride. But we’re siding with Kansas City to get right on the road and finally put a little scratch in your pocket.

Those 32 points the Eagles scored against Atlanta in Week 1 are but a faint memory after two weeks of dreary offense. Philadelphia has managed only 25 points on offense the past two games and enters Week 4 with an -0.017 EPA per play.

New head coach Nick Sirianni is under blast for his playcalling on Monday night, more specifically not getting the ball in the hands of RB Miles Sanders. If Philadelphia is going to dull the Chiefs offense, it will need to do so on both sides of the ball which means more ground and pound.

The Eagles dominated the turf in their first two games to the tune of 60 runs for 324 yards, good for 5.4 yards per attempt. Kansas City hasn’t been able to slow down opponents on the ground, allowing 5.4 yards per carry. With Sirianni hearing it from the Philly faithful, expect a return to that strategy and a slower pace than the 27.45 seconds per play the Eagles have run so far.

As for Kansas City, everyone fears the dynamic passing attack but the Chiefs rushing game should also be respected. Second-year RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire has caught flack for his fumble issues, but he rushed for 100 yards on only 17 carries in Week 3. Philadelphia is 22nd in Rushing Defense DVOA and has given up 277 total rushing yards the past two outings.

With both sides attempting to establish the run in Week 4, we like those short gains with the clocking ticking to help keep this final score below the total.

The Eagles' defense throws a lot of different looks at opponents, mixing in three, four, and even five-man fronts. That’s going to have Mahomes reading the defense at the line and making some quick adjustments, possibly running some no-huddle to keep Philadelphia from getting subs in.

Philadelphia isn't big on blitzing, bringing extra pass rushers on just 10 of its opponents' 91 dropbacks through three games, getting pressure on just 27 percent of pass attempts. That’s kept rival QBs in the pocket and allowed for only 34 total yards rushing from quarterbacks.

Dak Prescott ran nine times for only six yards on Monday and Mahomes may not be able to find that clean air he so loves, especially on those third down tries. Mahomes had 45 yards on the ground versus the Chargers but the Eagles will have plenty of speed bumps ahead of him on Sunday.

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