Monday Night Football brings a lopsided matchup on paper, with the New England Patriots laying 7 points at home and riding the momentum of a nine-game heater powered by sharp offense and fast starts.
Across the field, the New York Giants arrive on a six-game slide and hand the reins back to Jaxson Dart, who returns from a concussion after sitting out the last two weeks.
With New England cruising and New York still searching for stability, my Giants vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks see this December 1 showdown shaping up as yet another tough trip to Foxborough for the G-Men.
Giants vs Patriots prediction
Giants vs Patriots Best bet: Patriots -4 1H (-110)
Jaxson Dart has been cleared from concussion protocol and will start Monday night after missing two games in which Jameis Winston helped the offense score 47 total points against Detroit and Green Bay. Most of that production came early, and with Dart returning, this offense could start slower than usual.
Dart had been dangerous on the ground, averaging 45 rushing yards per game over his last seven games, but it’s fair to expect less reckless scrambling given the recent injury. He’ll also be working with a supporting cast full of backups outside of tight end.
The New England Patriots are coming off what feels like a “bad game,” yet they still scored 26 points on Cincinnati, won the first half by four, and Drake Maye threw for 294 yards.
Their issues were in the red zone (0-for-2), but OC Josh McDaniels addressed those problems this week and hinted at more creativity near the goal line. This is also the No. 5 1H scoring offense in the league.
New England should also benefit from injuries on the New York Giants’ defense. Dexter Lawrence is more doubtful than probable, and both starting linebackers — Demetrius Flannigan-Harris and Kayvon Thibodeaux — missed Friday’s practice.
Losing any combination of those three offsets New England’s own O-line injuries, especially given the Patriots still rank Top 5 in most protection metrics.
Dart likely needs time to settle in, New York’s offensive explosiveness should dip, and the Patriots should finish drives against the league’s 31st-ranked red-zone defense.
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Giants vs Patriots MNF same-game parlay
Hunter Henry remains Drake Maye’s most reliable target and is coming off a season-high 115 yards with his fifth touchdown, tying him for the team lead. Four of his five scores have come at home, where he also averages 10 more receiving yards per game.
TreVeyon Henderson should continue to handle most of the backfield work after Rhamondre Stevenson managed just five yards on six carries and failed at the goal line last week in his return. With McDaniels acknowledging last week’s red-zone issues, Henderson could see increased close-range usage.
Theo Johnson is another overlooked option. He’s coming off a season-high 77 yards and was a clear Jaxson Dart favorite earlier in the year, scoring five touchdowns in the seven games Dart started.
Giants vs Patriots 3-leg SGP
- Hunter Henry TD
- TreVeyon Henderson TD
- Theo Johnson TD
Our big-ticket SGP: Handoffs & hook routes TD parlay
I'm adding the New York back that took over the goal-line last week. Tyrone Tracy had five carries inside the 20 compared to Devin Singletary's one, which went for a loss of four yards. You'd also have to assume that Jaxson Dart isn't poaching close TDs this week with his concussion issues.
Giants vs Patriots 4-leg SGP
- Hunter Henry TD
- TreVeyon Henderson TD
- Theo Johnson TD
- Tyrone Tracy TD
Giants vs Patriots game predictions
Giants vs Patriots moneyline prediction
I know the Giants are exciting, but the injuries on defense and the reduction of Dart's scrambling is a lot for a team that was struggling to be competitive already. This is also a defense that has folded late week-in and week-out. They are fun, but the ML is not the place to back them Monday night, especially vs. the Pats on a nine-game win streak and the Giants winless on the road.
Giants vs Patriots spread prediction
This spread was 7.5 on the lookahead and got down to a flat 7 on Thursday afternoon with the move from Winston to Dart. This could bounce around between 7 and 7.5, so if you want the Patriots, which is where I am leaning, shop around for the 7s.
Giants vs Patriots Over/Under prediction
This total was 46.5 on the lookahead, opened at 47.5 on Sunday night, and was bet down immediately to as low as 46 in some spots. The weather shouldn't impact anything, but the health of Dart worries me about how conservative this New York offense will be. I think I'd like this Over 46.5 more if Jameis was still slinging it.
Giants vs Patriots odds
- Spread: Giants +7 | Patriots -7
- Moneyline: Giants +275 | Patriots -350
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Giants vs Patriots betting trend to know
The Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS in the first half this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Patriots.
How to watch Giants vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date | Monday, December 1, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Learn how to live stream Giants vs. Patriots for free tonight.
Giants vs Patriots latest injuries
Giants vs Patriots weather
Kickoff in Foxborough will be played under classic December New England conditions: clear, cold, and steadily dropping temperatures. By the time the Giants and Patriots take the field at Gillette Stadium, readings should be hovering right around freezing—near 32°F, slipping into the upper 20s as the game moves into the second half, with mostly clear skies and only patchy clouds late.
Winds look to be light to modest (likely in the 5–10 mph range) with no precipitation in the forecast, so visibility and footing on the field should be excellent despite the chill. The ball will be cold and a bit harder, but there’s no rain or snow expected to complicate the passing or kicking game.
This setup slightly favors whichever team is more comfortable playing a physical, run-first style and tackling in the cold for four quarters. Receivers and defensive backs will need to stay loose to avoid muscle tightness, so depth in the secondary and at wideout could matter as rotations keep players fresh. The chilly conditions will also make the ball less forgiving on contact: drops, fumbles, and painful hits over the middle become more likely, putting a premium on ball security and short, timing-based throws over deep shots that hang in the air.
Kicking should be mostly stable with the light wind, but the denser cold air can shave a few yards off field goals, nudging coaching decisions toward aggressiveness on fourth-and-manageable just outside the usual field-goal range.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
More Giants vs Patriots predictions from Covers
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- Monday Night Football odds
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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