Falcons vs Panthers Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: The Known Quantity Wins Out in Divisional Battle

For better or worse, the NFC South takes the primetime stage in Week 10 with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football.

Atlanta is trying to stay in the hunt for the division lead at 4-5, which sort of tells you everything you need to know about this group of teams. Carolina sits in the basement of the NFC South with only two wins but isn’t out of the division's picture either, with mixed motivations as it hits the second half of the schedule.

I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Falcons at Panthers on November 10. Be sure to also check out Josh Inglis' three favorite TNF player prop picks.

Falcons vs Panthers best odds

Falcons vs Panthers picks and predictions

Midweek games come with enough uncertainty when you have quality teams squaring off. But when you throw the chaos of the NFC South out on the field on a short week, who the hell knows what’s going to happen?

Keeping it simple is the best strategy here, and that means laying the field goal with Atlanta. 

The Falcons have the offensive approach to take advantage of Carolina on Thursday. The Panthers’ defense was just punished by Cincinnati for almost 40 minutes of possession on Sunday, allowing the Bengals to rack up 241 rushing yards. 

Now, Carolina comes home with little rest and a bunch of injuries up front on this defensive line. Starters Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, and Matt Ioannidis are all questionable against a relentless run game from the Falcons, who just returned Cordarrelle Patterson to a deep roster of ball carriers.

Atlanta marches out one of the most plodding paces in the NFL, ranked second slowest in seconds per play, and can wear down an already exhausted Carolina defense (that just had more coaches fired) with a playbook that goes run on almost 58% of snaps — second most in the NFL.

The Falcons ran for 4.5 yards per carry and 167 rushing yards when these divisional rivals played in Atlanta just two weeks ago and didn’t have Patterson in the lineup for that game. Carolina was able to hit some big passing plays in that Week 8 meeting, but those won’t be there Thursday night.

Panthers QB P.J. Walker amassed 317 yards through the air on the fast track inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 30, including a number of deep strikes against a depleted Atlanta secondary. Those injury concerns remain for the Falcons, but the forecast for Charlotte could keep things grounded Thursday. A strong chance of rain and wind gusts up to 25 mph are slotted for this primetime contest. 

Even without the weather working against the Panthers’ passing attack, Walker may have a tough time repeating his success of Week 8. He was yanked after going 3-for-10 passing for only nine yards while throwing two interceptions against the Bengals on the weekend. 

While interim coach Steve Wilks is sticking with Walker on the short week, his margin for error is slim considering Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are both options under center — and not great options either. Given how Atlanta's ground and pound could dominate the football, whoever plays QB for Carolina won't touch the ball much to begin with.

My best bet: Falcons -3 (-110 at bet365)

Falcons vs Panthers spread analysis

This point spread hit the board as low as Atlanta -2.5 on Sunday night and was bet up to a field goal by Monday morning, with early play on the Falcons.

Atlanta edged Carolina 37-34 in overtime at home in Week 8, failing to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. That blown cover is part of a three-game ATS losing skid for the Falcons, who opened 2022 by covering in each of their first six games of the season.

Atlanta has shown fight away from home this year, owning an average margin of points per play on the road of just -0.005 — 15th in the league. While the Falcons have five losses overall, only one has been a blowout with the other four coming by one, four, six, and three points.

The Panthers pricked up for a couple weeks following the firing of head coach Matt Rhule, but was steam rolled by Cincinnati in Week 9. The Carolina defense was the backbone of this team, but that stop unit has surrendered point totals of 37, 34, 37, and 42 in four of their last five games. 

As mentioned, the short week doesn’t do the defense any favors after being on the field for nearly 40 minutes on Sunday and lugging the most minutes of any stop unit in the NFL this season (34:29) due to an anemic offense averaging 14.3 first downs per game (last in the NFL).

Falcons vs Panthers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football opened at 42.5 points and has climbed as high as 44 in the first two days of action.

These NFC South rivals combined for 71 points in their Week 8 overtime affair in Atlanta, but that matchup was played on the fast indoor track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Carolina took advantage of a depleted Falcons secondary, passing for 317 yards and multiple deep strikes, and that unit could still be thin on the short turnaround in Week 10.

The environment in Bank of America Stadium could be very different Thursday, with a strong chance of rain and wind gusts of up to 25 mph in the forecast. 

The Falcons' offense sits 11th in EPA per play with the run game doing the heavy lifting. Atlanta is the second slowest tempo in terms of seconds per play on offense and runs the third fewest plays per contest in the NFL (58.3).

Carolina actually runs the fewest at 54.9 plays per outing, but that’s not by choice as it sits 10th fastest in seconds per play. The Panthers’ listless offense ranks out at the bottom of many advanced metrics and also brings up the rear in terms of first downs per game and third down conversion percentage (26.67%). 

Atlanta enters Week 10 with a 5-4 O/U count on the year while Carolina is 4-5 O/U.

Falcons vs Panthers betting trend to know

The Under is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings between the Falcons and Panthers. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Panthers.

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