Cashing anytime touchdown bets in Week 6 relies on identifying green-zone usage and mismatch nightmares.
Cam Skattebo headlines our card with secure volume inside the 10-yard line, while Jacob Cowing provides elite value across multiple scoring avenues.
See what other players are predicted to find paydirt as our expert NFL picks target the best touchdown edges on the market.
NFL touchdown picks for Week 6
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Texansvs  Jaguars |
Bhayshul Tuten 42% |
 Saintsvs  Giants |
Cam Skattebo 47% |
 Titansvs  Colts |
Carnell Tate 24% |
 Panthersvs  Eagles |
Chuba Hubbard 50% |
 Bearsvs  Falcons |
Brian Robinson Jr. 31% |
 Jetsvs  Patriots |
Hunter Henry 32% |
 Steelersvs  Buccaneers |
Pat Freiermuth 23% |
 Ravensvs  Browns |
Harold Fannin Jr. 28% |
 Cardinalsvs  Rams |
Michael Wilson 30% |
 Billsvs  Raiders |
Dalton Kincaid 33% |
 Chargersvs  Chiefs |
Oronde Gadsden 13% |
 Cowboysvs  Packers |
Matthew Golden 38% |
 Commandersvs  49ers |
Jacob Cowing 19% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert NFL touchdown picks for Week 6
Texans vs Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten
Jacksonville running back Bhayshul Tuten has handled 60% of the team’s red-zone carries and boasts an elite 3.83 yards after contact per attempt and 109.4 PFF elusive rating.
He’s also scored in seven of his past 13 games and played 55% of the offensive snaps for the Jags this year.
With Houston allowing five rushing touchdowns this season, I’d back Tuten to find the end zone to 43%.
Check out full Texans vs. Jaguars predictions.
Saints vs Giants: Cam Skattebo
As long as Cam Skattebo's anytime touchdown probability stays at 50% or lower, I'm in.
Skattebo's overtime fumble nearly cost the Giants last week, so there may be some incentive to get him involved early and restore his confidence.
More importantly, New Orleans has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL and ranks 30th in defensive stuff rate, according to Pro.NFL.com.
If Skattebo gets carries inside the five-yard line, this is exactly the kind of matchup where he can finish the drive.
Check out full Saints vs. Giants predictions.
Titans vs Colts: Carnell Tate
I'd trade Carnell Tate's anytime touchdown probability up to 30%.
Tate, the first receiver selected in the 2026 NFL Draft at No. 4 overall, is overdue for his first score. He has 37 targets this season, and Atlanta's Drake London is the only other pass-catcher with at least 37 targets who still doesn't have a receiving touchdown.
The matchup also helps. All five Indianapolis starting defensive backs have failing PFF grades, while the Colts rank 22nd in defensive dropback EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com.
If there’s ever a spot for Tate to finally break through, this is it.
Check out full Titans vs. Colts predictions.
Panthers vs Eagles: Chuba Hubbard
The Eagles rank 19th in the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed. They are also 27th in the league in time of possession and were on the wrong end of a 36-minutes to 24 possession deficit against Jacksonville last week.
It isn’t likely to improve without Hurts and Barkley—the only Eagles to gain more than 55 rushing yards in a game this year. Look for the Panthers to run the ball, especially late, and for Chuba Hubbard to score.
If you want a better payoff, backup AJ Dillon at 19% is also worth a play.
Check out full Panthers vs. Eagles predictions.
Bears vs Falcons: Brian Robinson Jr.
Play up to 35%.
I'm looking to Bijan's backfield partner, Brian Robinson Jr., to find paydirt on Sunday. The former Alabama standout has already rushed for four touchdowns this season on only 51 carries, showing just how efficient he's been in scoring situations.
Those four scores came on only five red-zone carries, and while that touchdown rate is obviously unsustainable, it also shows Atlanta is willing to use Robinson near the goal line. With Chicago missing key pieces up front and the Falcons expected to lean on the run, Robinson should have another chance to cash in from close range.
Check out full Bears vs. Falcons predictions.
Jets vs Patriots: Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry has had his two most productive games of the year over the past two weeks. He caught 8 passes for 106 yards and scored a touchdown last Sunday against the Raiders.
The Jets haven't allowed a tight end touchdown yet this year, but have given up 22 catches for 183 yards to the group. New England won't spring many explosive plays against New York's secondary, and Henry will get plenty of red-zone targets.
I like Henry to score a touchdown at 36% or lower.
Check out full Jets vs. Patriots predictions.
Steelers vs Buccaneers: Pat Freiermuth
Tight end Pat Freiermuth's anytime touchdown probability is playable up to 28%.
Freiermuth leads Pittsburgh with four receiving touchdowns, and he boasts the team's highest receiving success rate (53.8%) and QB rating when targeted among players with at least 10 targets.
That efficiency makes sense considering the other weapons defenses have to account for. Warren and D.K. Metcalf also demand attention, while enormous TE Darnell Washington creates another matchup problem for opponents.
Freiermuth keeps finding favorable coverage, and Pittsburgh clearly trusts him in the red zone.
Check out Geoff Clark's full Steelers vs. Buccaneers predictions.
Ravens vs Browns: Harold Fannin Jr.
The Browns feel likelier to have success through the air than on the ground on Sunday, and Harold Fannin Jr. stands out as an anytime TD pick after grabbing three scores already this year.
Baltimore has given up three touchdowns to tight ends in the opening five weeks, and snap count shouldn't be an issue for Fannin Jr. after logging a 93% mark last weekend against the Jets.
With Concepcion and Denzel Boston occupying the Ravens' secondary, look for Fannin Jr. to thrive on underneath routes. His 6-foot-4 frame is ideal for red-zone jump balls.
Check out full Ravens vs. Browns predictions.
Cardinals vs Rams: Michael Wilson
I like Michael Wilson's anytime touchdown probability up to 33%, as I'm anticipating plenty of garbage time, while LA's offensive stars are too expensive for me as standalone touchdown picks.
Wilson also has history in this matchup. He caught three touchdown passes in two games against the Rams last season and is already Arizona's most-targeted wide receiver.
His opportunity should only grow after Marvin Harrison Jr. was traded to Houston. If Arizona spends most of the second half chasing points, Wilson should see enough volume to give him a shot at finding the end zone.
Check out full Cardinals vs. Rams predictions.
Bills vs Raiders: Dalton Kincaid
In addition to the highlighted Las Vegas defensive shortcomings, covering tight ends has been a problem. The Raiders have surrendered six touchdowns and the third-highest catch rate to the position through five weeks.
Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid has been quiet for three straight weeks, and head coach Joe Brady said he needs to do a better job of involving Kincaid in the offense after the tight end has only been targeted twice in consecutive weeks.
Of course, Kincaid also sports an elite 17.3 yards per reception, 11.8 aDoT, and Allen has a high-end 133.5 NFL passer rating when targeting the go-to tight end.
I recommend Kincaid to score to 40%.
Check out full Bills vs. Raiders predictions.
Chargers vs Chiefs: Oronde Gadsden
Only three teams have allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the Chiefs, who are averaging one per game. The Chargers will be without Tre Harris, while Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Brenen Thompson are all questionable.
Charlie Kolar might get the bulk of the tight end work, but Oronde Gadsden is the best pass-catcher, a real deep threat, and tied for the most red zone targets on the team.
Check out full Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions.
Cowboys vs Packers: Matthew Golden
In the spirit of October, Matthew Golden is about to “go yard” on the Dallas defense. The speedy WR has been a home run hitter for the Cheeseheads, tied for the ninth-most receptions of 20+ yards.
Golden isn’t just a downfield threat. He leads all Packers WRs with eight red-zone targets, catching five of those balls and two for touchdowns.
The Cowboys coverage has been torched by WR2s, rating 28th against second options. The Dallas secondary is also running thin, with DBs Joey Porter Jr. and Cobie Durant missing practice.
Touchdown forecasts have Golden’s paydirt probabilities ranging from 36% to 53%, with my “buy up to” price at 45%.
Check out full Cowboys vs. Packers predictions.
Commanders vs 49ers: Jacob Cowing
I got this at 5.25x against a fair price of 4.8x if Deebo Samuel sits, and that looks likely.
Deebo exited in the third quarter last week and looks set to miss multiple weeks. With Demarcus Robinson already out and Mike Evans struggling to stay healthy after not practicing Thursday due to multiple ailments, Jacob Cowing is a great down-the-order look on an elite offense vs. the Commanders, who rank in the bottom six in EPA/dropback on defense.
Cowing saw 92% of the snaps in 3-WR sets and could see more looks in 2-WR sets following the Deebo injury. He played more snaps last week than both Brandin Cooks and Jordan Watkins.
