The 2023 NFL Draft begins tonight, and hoo boy what a wild ride it's been over the last week.
There has been a ton of changes in NFL Draft odds leading up to the offseason's premier event, including the No. 2-overall pick seemingly getting a new favorite every day with each new piece of news, speculation, and general misdirection being thrown out.
Also aiding in the confusion is the plethora of experts in the industry posting their NFL mock drafts, which look wildly different from each version to the next.
Now, with less than 12 hours until the Carolina Panthers are on the clock, we've got the latest betting splits and market updates for some of the most popular NFL Draft props.
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NFL Draft 2023 betting updates
NFL Draft 2023 first-overall pick
There has been little doubt that a quarterback will go No. 1, especially after the Carolina Panthers acquired the first pick from the Chicago Bears, nor has there been much mystery that Alabama product Bryce Young will be Carolina's quarterback of the future, as he currently sits anywhere from -1,600 to -5,000 to be the first-overall pick.
As of this morning, BetMGM reported that Young (-2,500) was leading the way with 57.1% of the handle for wagers on the first pick, while it's actually Kentucky QB Will Levis (maybe aided by Reddit) jumping to account for most of the tickets with 28.9%.
DraftKings reported this afternoon that Young had 42% of the handle and 20% of tickets, while currently sitting at -5,000.
At PointsBet, Bryce Young was at -2,000 last night and was the leader in both bet count (30.5%) and money (51.5%), with Levis second in tickets (23.5%) and Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud second in handle (18.6%).
NFL Draft 2023 second-overall pick
This is where the chaos starts, as who the Houston Texans take at No. 2 is anybody's guess.
First, it was Stroud, a logical pick considering Houston badly needs a quarterback, and he is arguably the most NFL-ready of this year's crop.
Then it was Alabama LB Will Anderson, the most disruptive pass rusher in the draft, but then major steam came in on Levis over the weekend, moving him to as low as -145 at some operators.
However, remember how I said this was chaos?
Well, as of Tuesday morning, Texas Tech LB Tyree Wilson became the favorite to go second and was sitting at +135 at BetMGM, with Levis slightly behind in the +150 to +220 range, while Anderson and Stroud were both anywhere from 3/1 to 4/1 — but as of this morning, it circled all the way back to Anderson as the massive odds-on favorite to go No. 2 (currently -333 at BetMGM).
As of this morning, BetMGM was reporting 25.3% of tickets were still on Stroud (with Anderson second at 20.3% and Wilson (14.1%) third, as well as the biggest share of the money (25.6%) — followed by Anderson (24.7%), Wilsom (18.3%), and Levis (18.1%).
As of 2 p.m. ET today, DraftKings reported Anderson the -350 favorite, with 23% of the handle and 19% of tickets — numbers that are second to Stroud (+300), who has 29% of the money and 31% of wagers, with Wilson (+500) and Levis (+750) following them.
Most of the handle at PointsBet, as of Tuesday night, was on Levis (31%), but that was eons ago — when him, Anderson, and Wilson were all 2/1 — as Anderson is now the -220 favorite there (with Stroud second going from +800 to +300), while FanDuel is still currently offering the Bama defensive product at "only" -175.
NFL Draft 2023 player draft position
Another popular prop for draft bettors this year has been specific player Over/Unders, focusing on some of the higher-profile players in the draft.
There are no betting splits available yet, but some of the notable player Over/Unders at DraftKings include:
|Anthony Richardson||Over 4.5 -130||Under 4.5 +100|
|Bijan Robinson||Over 10.5 -165||Under 10.5 +130|
|Dalton Kincaid||Over 24.5 +200||Under 24.5 -250|
|Devon Witherspoon||Over 6.5 +180||Under 6.5 -230|
|Hendon Hooker||Over 31.5 -120||Under 31.5 -110|
|Peter Skoronski||Over 10.5 -140||Under 10.5 +110|
|Tyree Wilson||Over 4.5 -265||Under 4.5 +215|
There are some big line moves of note:
- Richardson's line yesterday was 7.5, and it jumped three entire spots within 24 hours.
- Kincaid's Under 24.5 went from +100 to -250.
- Christian Gonzalez, Paris Johnson Jr., and Jalen Carter went OTB
Also: check out Rohit Ponnaiya's best position player Over/Under bets for Round 1.
NFL Draft 2023 first pick by position
Young is obviously the favorite to go first in the draft and be the first quarterback picked, but BetMGM also has some splits on who will go first in some other key positions.
Wide receiver: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-350) is the current favorite to be the first WR off the board, despite the Ohio State product sitting second with 19.8% of the tickets and 25.1% of handle (as of this morning). Zay Flowers is second on the board at +450 (up from 6/1 Tuesday) but his 37.2% bet count and 43.6% of the handle are easily the most among all potential picks, with Quentin Johnston (+900, 19% tickets/11.2% handle) and Jordan Addison (+1,600, 15.8% tickets/17.5% handle) are third and fourth.
Tight end: The biggest favorite is Notre Dame's Michael Mayer (-250), who pulled into the lead after being tied with Dalton Kincaid at -115 last week, and has the majority of the betting handle (56.1%), although Kincaid, currently second at +150, has most (48.5%) of the wagers and 34.8% of all TE-related money.
Offensive lineman: Peter Skoronski (+300) had the majority of tickets (41.9%), but it's actually Paris Johnson Jr. who's the betting favorite, sitting at -350 (shortened from -175 Tuesday) and being responsible for 67.4% of the handle and 34.5% of the tickets.
First defensive player: This was long believed to be Will Anderson, who last week was at -250, but he dropped to +100 Tuesday — with Tyree Wilson the favorite at -135. However, Anderson is back as the massive favorite at -333, with Wilson at +250 and Jalen Carter OTB, and as of this morning Anderson had the majority of handle (60.8%) and tickets (55.9%).
Cornerback: Similar to offensive lineman, this is a two-man show, with bettors Christian Gonzalez (+175) trailing Devon Witherspoon (-250), who has a whopping 77.1% of the money — although Gonzalez leads in tickets, with 50.6% compared to Witherspoon's 36.8% of bets.
Also: check out Andrew Caley's best first player picked by position bets.
NFL Draft 2023 first-round position totals
We also don't have any betting splits yet for the total players picked by position in Round 1, but here are the current odds from FanDuel:
|Quarterback||Over 4.5 -114||Under 4.5 -114|
|Running back||Over 1.5 -320||Under 1.5 +210|
|Tight end||Over 2.5 +144||Under 2.5 -194|
|Wide receiver||Over 3.5 -188||Under 3.5 +136|
|Defensive backs||Over 5.5 -192||Under 5.5 +142|
|Offensive linemen||Over 5.5 -550||Under 5.5 +350|
|Offensive players||Over 16.5 -400||Under 16.5 +270|
|Defensive players||Over 14.5 +240||Under 14.5 -350|
This is not a big first round for offensive skill position players, as the O-line is projected to be the most common selection (with an Over/Under of 6.5), while defensive backs are also in flavor, with a total of 5.5.
There are also some line moves to note here, specifically the Over 4.5 QBs going from -215 to -114, while total offensive linemen went from 6.5 to 5.5, with the Over massively juiced at -550.
NFL Draft Splits 2023 FAQs
Alabama's Bryce Young is the current betting favorite to go first overall.
The current favorite is Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson, but Will Levis, Will Anderson, and CJ Stroud are also in the conversation.
Round 1 is expected to feature plenty of offensive lineman, defensive backs, and quarterbacks.
The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft will start at 8:00 p.m. ET in Kansas City, Missouri.