We get an AFC East showdown this afternoon between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, and while the division crown is already decided, the stakes remain high: a Patriots win, combined with a Broncos stumble, would lock up a first-round bye.
Our Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks expect the Patriots to continue their strong record against the spread and cover against the Dolphins for the second time this season.
Dolphins vs Patriots prediction
Dolphins vs Patriots Best bet: Patriots -11.5 (-105)
The New England Patriots have won four of their five divisional games, and they need to do it again here, knowing that a win here will seal the first-round bye if they can beat the result that the Broncos get against the Chargers.
They’re 3-1-1 ATS in those divisional games, 10-5-1 ATS overall, and covered the spread when these teams met in Week Two. Not only that, but they’ve covered three of their past four in the last month.
The Patriots’ defense isn’t elite, but they’re still doing a good job of keeping the points against them down, and with Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers under center, the same should happen here.
On the offensive side of the ball, this team is a juggernaut. The offense ranks sixth in DVOA, and with Drake Maye an MVP candidate, they are tough to beat.
Strong offensive line play is at the heart of it, and they’re finding ways to put up big numbers, and are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NFL with 28.3 points per game.
With the Patriots needing the result here and playing on their home field, this should be a cover for Mike Vrabel’s team.
Dolphins vs Patriots same-game parlay
We’re going to back Rhamondre Stevenson to have Over 32.5 rushing yards. He’s broken that number in four of his past five games since returning from injury and still has a role on this offense.
We’re backing the Dolphins to score Under 16.5 points. With De’Von Achane a game-time decision, Ewers under center, and the Patriots defense giving up the fifth points per game this season.
Dolphins vs Patriots SGP
- Patriots -11.5
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 32.5 rushing yards
- Dolphins team total Under 16.5
Our big-ticket SGP: The Hunter!
We’re taking Hunter Henry to score a touchdown. The tight end has scored in his past two games and now has seven touchdowns on the season.
TreVeyon Henderson has assumed the lead role in the Patriots' backfield and has crushed his rushing yard line of 58.5 yards in six of his past seven games, with his electric speed and game-breaking agility being a real difference maker.
Dolphins vs Patriots SGP
- Patriots -11.5
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 32.5 rushing yards
- Dolphins team total Under 16.5
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 58.5 rushing yards
The Dolphins vs. the Patriots game predictions
Dolphins vs Patriots moneyline prediction
I'm rolling with the Patriots. Miami doesn't travel well and is 2-5 away from home this season.
Dolphins vs Patriots spread prediction
The Patriots covering the spread is my best bet, as the Pats are 10-5-1 ATS this season.
Dolphins vs Patriots Over/Under prediction
Miami will have difficulties scoring against the Pats with Quinn Ewers under center and several injuries. That leads me to a low-scoring affair this afternoon.
Dolphins vs Patriots odds
- Spread: Dolphins +10 | Patriots -10
- Moneyline: Dolphins +450 | Patriots -625
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Dolphins vs Patriots trend to know
The Patriots have cashed the moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Patriots.
How to watch Dolphins vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date | Sunday, January 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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