The Week 3 edition of Thursday Night Football features two teams headed in wildly different directions, with the Super Bowl-hopeful Buffalo Bills hosting the Miami Dolphins, whose only hope is to not completely implode.
While Buffalo is coming off a 30-10 evisceration of the Jets, the Dolphins are licking their wounds following a sloppy loss to the Patriots.
Our early Dolphins vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks don't expect much from the underdogs on Thursday, September 18.
Dolphins vs Bills predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early TNF spread pick: Bills -12.5
This is a massive spread in a divisional matchup on a Thursday night where weird things can happen, but there’s just such an incredible gap between the Buffalo Bills offense and the Miami Dolphins defense, not to mention a great home-field advantage for the Bills.
Through two games, the Bills have dropped 71 total points and rank near the top of the league in yards per play. They should easily get beyond the 30-point mark vs. a Dolphins defense that’s allowed 66 total points while ranking 30th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
Strong consideration also needs to be given to the massive jump in competition at the quarterback position for Miami. Both Daniel Jones and Drake Maye had very strong performances against the Dolphins, and now they’ll take on the reigning MVP, Josh Allen, who has a history of torching them.
The Bills also have several recent lopsided wins over the Dolphins. They had a 21-point win against them last season and a 28-point margin of victory in 2023.
If this game were later in the season and the Bills had a big game on deck — they don’t, they play New Orleans in Week 4 — I’d consider taking the Dolphins to cover, but there’s no external advantage for the Dolphins off the field, and we know there aren’t many on it, either.
Early TNF total pick: Over 49.5
While the large spread might lead to some mental gymnastics, I don’t think the same can be said for the total, as a lot of scoring should be expected.
Buffalo is off to a red-hot start offensively and should have a monster day against a defense that was just dominated by the Patriots, and Hall-of-Fame punching bag Daniel Jones the week before that.
The Bills are on an amazing offensive tear at home, where they’ve reached the 30-point mark in eight of nine regular-season games since the start of last season. They also got to 30 points in both games vs. Miami last season when their defense wasn’t a total joke like the 2025 edition.
To be fair to the Dolphins, their offense looked pretty good in Week 2, where we saw shades of the team that peaked in 2023. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 315 yards, Tyreek Hill looked like his old self, and De’von Achane looked worthy of his high draft placement in fantasy leagues.
Miami is averaging just under six yards per play and has been especially strong on the ground, where they’re tied for fourth in yards per rush.
All this is to say that Miami will contribute to the scoring vs. a sketchy Bills defense that allowed 40 points to Baltimore in Week 1.
Dolphins vs Bills odds
- Dolphins vs. Bills spread: Bills -12.5
- Dolphins vs. Bills moneyline: Dolphins +575, Bills -850
- Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch Dolphins vs Bills
- Dolphins vs. Bills matchup
- Date: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Buffalo, NY
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- TV: Amazon
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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