The NFL playoff bracket is slimming with Divisional Round matchups on the board.
By this point in the season, we know these elite teams inside and out, and so do the bookies.
Finding your edge against the oddsmakers means getting the best number for your spread and total bets. That could mean snatching up the opening odds now or waiting for market movement later in the week.
Here are my “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines and NFL picks for the Divisional Round odds.
Divisional Round bet now, bet later picks
- Rams at Eagles (-6): Bet Now
- Texans (+7.5) at Chiefs: Bet Later
- Ravens at Bills (Over 51): Bet Now
- Commanders at Lions (Under 55.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6): Bet Now
Even before you dig into the matchups, the Philadelphia Eagles have a solid advantage over the Los Angeles Rams in this Divisional Round meeting.
For one, Los Angeles plays on a short week after an exhausting Wild Card Round: Not only were the Rams prepping for the Vikings on Monday night but also evacuating the wildfires in Los Angeles, bringing the team and family — and even pets — to Arizona last week.
Now, Los Angeles is logging back-to-back travel games and crossing the country to play outdoors at an insane Lincoln Financial Field in January.
Philadelphia choked out the Packers for a solid win on Sunday, leaning into the ground game to control tempo and possession. The Eagles defense continued playing at a high level, creating takeaways and slamming the door in the red zone.
Philly scored a 37-20 victory over Los Angeles in Week 12, covering as 3-point road chalk at SoFi Stadium. The Eagles blasted the Rams on the ground, running 45 times for 314 yards — 255 of which came from Saquon Barkley. The defense landed five sacks on Matthew Stafford and forced four fumbles, recovering one.
Look-ahead lines for this possible pairing had Philadelphia as a 6.5-point home favorite. Los Angeles’ impressive showing on Monday has knocked the opener to the key number of six, but given the situational edge for the Eagles and their two-way prowess, I’m betting Philadelphia now.
Houston Texans (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: Bet Later
The Houston Texans took down one AFC West member in the Wild Card Round and now set their sights on another, traveling to Arrowhead Stadium for the Divisional Round.
Houston wasn’t overly impressive in that victory over the L.A. Chargers, with many people believing the Bolts beat themselves with a classic case of “Chargering.” That sentiment has the Texans opening as 7.5-point pups at the Kansas City Chiefs and growing to +8.5 in the minutes after opening.
With the spread parked at the dead number, books are going to move quickly on early opinion. That opinion will likely be very positive for the Chiefs, who received a bye into the second round and hold the best home-field edge in football.
If — and when — one-sided action comes in on KC, operators won’t wait and this spread could flirt with Texans +10 later in the week. Just look at the Wild Card spread for Steelers-Ravens last week.
If you think Houston can at least make it competitive, hold on and wait for the 10-point cushion.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Over 51): Bet Now
This is the Divisional Round showdown we all wanted. Part of that wish is related to MVP-worthy quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson going head-to-head, so this total is going up.
Select books opened this Over/Under as short as 51 points — a crucial number in total betting — with most shops starting at 51.5 and -115 juice on the Over, indicating this total isn’t done growing. The look-ahead total before the Bills' win was 52.5 O/U and there's nothing stopping this total from going there.
Both the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills flexed with offensive muscle in the Wild Card Round, stomping out quality defensive opponents and averaging 6.4 and 6.5 yards per play, respectively.
Defensively, they gave up a collective 21 points, but their Wild Card foes didn’t exactly test them too much. Russell Wilson and the Steelers recorded only 11 first downs while Bo Nix and the Broncos threatened in the first half but stalled out in the final 30 minutes.
These two contenders clashed way back in Week 4, with Baltimore busting Buffalo 35-10 and finishing Under the closing total of 47.5 points. It was a bad day at the office for Allen & Co. and this offense is a well-oiled machine at this point.
If you like the Over, seek out that 51-point total at bet it now.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (Under 55.5): Bet Later
The opening total for this Divisional Round date in Detroit was as low as 49.5 points… for about 30 seconds on Sunday night. From there, the Over/Under skyrocketed through the key number of 51 and kept on climbing.
Within minutes, the market consensus total was 55.5 points O/U. That’s a big total for an NFL game these days, especially a playoff game.
Since 2010, there have been just 12 postseason games with a total taller than 55 points. Those contests finished with a combined 5-7 O/U count. And looking at just the past five seasons, there have been only four playoff totals this big, with those producing a 1-3 O/U record.
That’s not to say the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders don’t have that many points in them. We are talking about two of the more explosive offenses in the league. But we’re also talking about two defenses playing much better in recent outings and two top defensive minds in Dan Quinn and Aaron Glenn.
This number has already rolled through important O/U stops, with 55 the most recent notable bar to jump. If you’re at all interested in buying back the Under, see if you can squeeze a few more points out of the public bettors, who will be betting the Over with both fists later in the week.
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