Cowboys vs Titans Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Elliott Owns the Red Zone

The Dallas Cowboys have already booked a spot in the playoffs but can make a run at the NFC East title — and the top seed in the conference — if everything trickles out just right in the final two weeks of the schedule. 

As for the Tennessee Titans, their postseason plans have crumbled in recent weeks, and winning the AFC South looks like their only way into the tournament, as they enter this mid-week matchup with key injuries on both sides of the football.

I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best free NFL picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Titans on December 29.

Also, be sure to check out Josh Inglis' favorite TNF player props and Jared Hochman's CeeDee Lamb prop picks.

Cowboys vs Titans best odds

Cowboys vs Titans picks and predictions

The Cowboys are hefty favorites for this Thursday night showing and bring a scoring attack to Nashville that has been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks. 

Complementing the red-hot passing game had been a return to form from stud running back Ezekiel Elliott, who has found the end zone in eight straight games and has scored a total of 10 rushing touchdowns since Week 6. 

Zeke could shoulder the load on the ground for Dallas in Week 17 and he has a great shot to get back in the end zone on Thursday night, a prop paying +110 on his anytime touchdown odds.

Elliott has shared backfield touches with fellow RB Tony Pollard all season, but Pollard was inactive on the estimated injury report coming out of Arlington on Monday with a thigh ailment. And while owner Jerry Jones told the media that Pollard “looks good for the game”, a healthy Elliott could see more touches after trailing Pollard in snap rate the previous three weeks.

The Cowboys shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the chains and finding their way into the red zone on Thursday. Tennessee’s defense is decimated with injuries all over the place, playing with a paper-thin secondary and now potentially missing key bodies in the front seven. Tennessee has allowed 10 red-zone possessions over the past three games after averaging just 2.8 in the first dozen of the season

The Titans were among one of the stingier red-zone defenses, but those cluster injuries have created gaping cracks in the stop unit. Tennessee has done well to slow rival running backs too, but after allowing a league-low 0.4 rushing TDs per game in the first 12 games, the Titans have given up three in the past three contests. 

They’re now taking on the No. 3 red-zone offense in DVOA at Football Outsiders, specifically the No. 2 Run Offense DVOA inside the 20-yard line. Dallas is second in rushing touchdowns, picking up more than 45% of their points on the ground.

Elliott's downhill power is the weapon of choice for the Cowboys when creeping up on the end zone, as he has 34 carries and 36 touches overall inside the red zone compared to 22 carries and 27 RZ touches for Pollard. All 11 of his touchdowns on the year have come from inside the 20-yard line. 

My best bet: Ezekiel Elliott anytime touchdown (+110 at bet365)

Cowboys vs Titans spread analysis

After the Titans' bad loss to Houston and the Cowboys' offensive eruption against the Eagles, bookies opened Dallas as low as -8.5 and quickly got bet up to double digits with the spread as lofty as -10.5 at some respected online books as of Tuesday afternoon.

Not only is Tennessee playing without veteran QB Ryan Tannehill, but star RB Derrick Henry was an estimated inactive on the injury report Monday. The Titans offense has been toothless beyond Henry’s contributions on the ground and even then, the running back has been inconsistent in his efforts.

Given the larger spread, oddsmakers project Dallas holding a sizable lead and forcing the game on the shoulders of Titans rookie QB Malik Willis, who went just 14-for-23 passing for 99 yards and two interceptions in the Week 16 loss at Houston.

Willis now tangles with one of the most dangerous defenses in the NFL. Dallas ranks among the elite in many advanced metrics but more notably causes plenty of chaos with an aggressive pass rush ranked out third in pressure rate per drop back, which has led to 49 sacks and helped generate a league-high 30 takeaways (14 interceptions).

According to Covers Consensus, 51% of picks are backing the Cowboys as big chalk on the road on Thursday night. It should be noted this is a sticky schedule spot for Dallas, which runs the risk of a letdown on the short week given it’s coming off a big win over the rival Eagles on Xmas Eve. 

Cowboys vs Titans Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under hit the board at 44 points and with the Titans potentially missing key parts of the offense in Tannehill and Henry, this number has sunk as low as 40.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.

We mentioned Dallas’ defensive dominance, and Tennessee was playing above expectations on that side of the ball before injuries plagued the secondary and most recently thinned out the front seven heading into this quick Week 17 turnaround. The Titans have recently given up big scores to quality offensive attacks, like Jacksonville and Philadelphia.

As for the offense, the Cowboys are very much clicking at the right time and have a two-way attack that is tough to slow down. Quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at a high level since returning from injury in Week 7, powering an offense ranked out No. 4 in EPA per play in that span.

We do have a contrast in tempo between these offenses, given Dallas runs an offensive snap every 26.78 seconds and Tennessee sits slowest in those pace metrics at 30.31 seconds, according to Football Outsiders. However, if the Cowboys do build a big lead early on, the tempo will crawl behind a run-heavy playbook in the second half.

According to Covers Consensus, 62% of picks are playing the Over in this Thursday night matchup. The Cowboys come into Week 17 with an 8-6-1 Over/Under count while Tennessee has gone 5-10 O/U so far this season.

Cowboys vs Titans same-game parlay

Elliott anytime TD (+110) + Cowboys Over 9.5 1H points (-280) + 1st score before 7 minutes (-115)

Zeke has been a TD machine and with Pollard nursing a sore thigh on a short week, he’ll have even more chances to find paydirt. The Cowboys are one of the best first-half offenses in the land and have averaged more than 18 first-half points per game in the past three outings. Both offense have been very solid on their first possessions, so someone will score before the midway mark of the first quarter.

TNF SGP odds: +320 at bet365

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cowboys vs Titans betting trend to know

Since 2000, double-digit road favorites are just 57-75-1 ATS overall (43%). Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Titans.

Cowboys vs Titans game info

Cowboys vs Titans latest injuries

Cowboys vs Titans weather

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