CeeDee Lamb TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 17

Have you ever stumbled upon an old CD that you really loved (yes, I'm dating myself here), go back and listen to it... then remember there are like three or four absolute bangers that you hammer on repeat like 10 times?

That's me — and should be all of us — in hammering play, err, bet, on the Overs for CeeDee Lamb props this week.

Now, I get it: He may not exactly be as old as a classic CD, but taking a good look at his NFL player props this week reveals a couple of markets that really stand out against a pitiful (and beaten down) Titans secondary.

Both our Cowboys vs. Titans betting preview and best TNF prop picks are keying oi on the action on the ground... but my free NFL picks are looking at Dallas' aerial attack — with Lamb's performance resulting in sweet, sweet music to our ears.

CeeDee Lamb TNF prop picks

• Over 68.5 receiving yards
• Over 5.5 receptions
• Longest reception Over 25.5 yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

CeeDee Lamb TNF props

Press Play on CeeDee

Lamb has been one of the league's best wide receivers all season, sitting seventh in receptions and eighth in yards, but he's been on a real roll as of late, averaging 87.5 receiving yards per game over his last four contests while hauling in 27 of 31 targets (87.1% catch rate).

CeeDee has also registered at least 70 yards in seven of his last nine games, including four of his last five outings and going for 226 yards over his last two weeks.

His 120 yards last week against the Eagles is particularly impressive, considering Philly is No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense Expected Points Added, and yet he only has a yardage total of 68.5 against a Tennessee Titans defense that is 28th in pass defense EPA.

While the Dallas Cowboys still love to lean on their running game, the Titans have actually been a competent run defense, giving up more than 77 rushing yards just once since Week 4, with a 63.8 per-game average and 2.8 yards per attempt.

Yes, the Titans have injury concerns along the front seven, with two starting defensive linemen and two starting linebackers questionable for Thursday, but Tennessee also has two starters listed as questionable for a secondary that has given up more than 300 passing yards per game since Week 2 — and almost 324 yards per game is you remove two matchups with the woeful Houston Texans.

Further helping Lamb's case is that he has been lining up out of the slot more often the past few weeks, and wreaking absolute havoc.

CeeDee Lamb caught all 9 of his targets from the slot for 113 yards & a TD in the Cowboys 40-34 victory over the Eagles.

Lamb in the Slot (since Week 7):

???? 495 yds (1st)
???? +7.1 receptions over expected (1st)
???? 3.0 yds/route (2nd, min. 100 routes)#PHIvsDAL | #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/rbRofCKNfZ

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 25, 2022

When in the slot, Lamb would likely go against Roger McCreary, who has allowed a 99.6 passer rating this season when targeted, and with top wide CB Kristian Fulton and free safety Amani Hooker both questionable, CeeDee has a better shot at doing damage out wide as well.

The path of least resistance against the Titans defense is through the air, and considering Dallas' top receiver is facing a yardage total that 11 different WRs (and one TE) have topped in Tennessee's last 12 games, is well below his recent average, AND the weather (51 degrees, winds in the 10-12 mph range) doesn't seem that bad — this seems like a no-brainer.  

Prop: CeeDee Lamb Over 68.5 receiving yards (-115)

CeeDee on repeat

One of the reasons I love Lamb's yardage total — and his receptions total — is the consistency he gets in volume and catches.

Lamb has registered at least five catches in all but one game since Week 2, and in his last eight contests (coinciding with QB Dak Prescott settling in after missing time with injury), he's averaged 6.8 catches and 8.6 targets per game.

And again: He splits his routes between the slot, where McCready has given up a nearly 71% catch rate (24 catches on 34 targets), or if he goes out wide he could likely match up with backups on an already-awful coverage unit.

Dak has not been shy about looking Lamb's way each week and assuming he gets his usual 7-10 targets, I fully expect him to reel in at least six of them to cash this bet.

Prop: CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 receptions (-127)

CeeDee going extra bars

Great receiver against a bad secondary — what are the odds he logs at least one long reception?

Pretty good, if you ask me.

Lamb has 17 catches of 20+ yards over his last nine games, including at least two big catches in seven of those games, with four catches of 25+ yards over his last two weeks and eight over this nine-game span.

The Titans have given up at least three 20+ yard passing plays in each of their last nine games, including 24 total in their last four games and at least one 30+ yarder in seven of those contests.

And now their best CB and safety could also be sidelined, along with two starting linebackers.

Yeah, sign me up for CeeDee getting one big chunk reception... at least.

Prop: CeeDee Lamb longest reception Over 25.5 yards (-110)

Pages related to this topic