The Week 14 edition of Thursday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions has fireworks written all over it, with a very meaningful game going down in Detroit.
My early Cowboys vs Lions predictions expect Detroit to get back on track with the teams combining to light up the scoreboard.
Check out my early NFL picks for Thursday, December 4.
Cowboys vs Lions predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early TNF spread pick: Lions -3
Backing the Detroit Lions after a loss has been extremely profitable in recent seasons, as they’ve gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an outright loss.
The Lions have had issues this season vs. other competitive teams, with outright losses coming against the Eagles, Chiefs, and Packers twice.
We do need to classify the Dallas Cowboys as a “good” team now following consecutive wins over the Eagles and Chiefs, but there’s a big difference between the Cowboys and the previous teams Detroit has lost to.
That difference comes on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions have struggled against top-tier defenses in 2025, but I think they’ll be able to exploit a Cowboys’ D ranked 31st in points allowed, which has been lit up multiple times this season.
Continuing the Detroit theme, its offense has had some of its best performances of the season following losses, scoring 52, 44, and 34 points.
While Dallas deserves plenty of credit for knocking off last year’s Super Bowl finalists in consecutive games, it needs to be taken into consideration those games took place at home, and the Cowboys have been much worse on the road.
Despite Detroit’s losses to top defenses this season, this is a strong bounce-back spot for the Lions against a Cowboys team with a shaky defense and a far weaker track record away from Jerry's World.
Early TNF total pick: Over 53.5
While Lions on the spread is a true lean, the Over in this matchup between explosive offenses and leaky defenses is one of my favorite spots of the week.
These offenses rank second and third in scoring, while each defense has shown serious weaknesses in key areas.
Expect the Lions to keep the ball moving and keep drives alive vs. the Cowboys' defense, which ranks dead last in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
Detroit might opt to lean on the run more often with Amon-Ra St. Brown’s status for the game up in the air. Expect a big night for their one-two punch of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed per rush while also allowing the third most receiving yards to the running back position.
As for Dak Prescott and his talent receiving duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, they’ll have a great shot at stuffing the stat sheet vs. a Lions' defense that’s getting lit up through the air.
Detroit ranks 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt over its last three games and could have its hands full as Dallas ranks second in this category offensively.
To throw some more fuel on the fire, these defenses rank 27th and 30th in opponent red zone touchdown conversion percentage, so expect more touchdowns than field goal attempts when they get in close.
Cowboys vs Lions odds
- Cowboys vs. Lions spread: Lions -3
- Cowboys vs. Lions moneyline: Cowboys +145, Lions -170
- Cowboys vs. Lions Over/Under: 53.5
How to watch Cowboys vs Lions
- Cowboys vs. Lions matchup
- Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Detroit, MI
- Venue: Ford Field
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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