My kids will have me up at 5:00 a.m. on Christmas morning, so there’s a good chance I’ll be nodding off during the Dallas Cowboys’ clash with the Washington Commanders on Thursday.
Thankfully, this Dallas offense is loaded with explosive passing plays that are sure to jolt me awake, and at least one “home run” is likely to come from receiver George Pickens.
He’s the centerpiece of my top Cowboys vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks for December 25.
Cowboys vs Commanders prediction
Cowboys vs Commanders best bet: George Pickens longest reception Over 25.5 yards (-115)
The Washington Commanders' pass defense is bad. Like fruitcake bad.
Washington ranks near the bottom of the league in most defensive measurements, including explosive plays. The Commanders have given up 47 completions for 20+ yards and a dozen dingers of 40-plus.
One of those was a 44-yard direct strike from Dak Prescott to a streaking George Pickens down the sideline back in Week 7.
The Dallas Cowboys receiver is one of the top deep threats in the league. Pickens is third in receptions of 20-plus (21), fourth in catches of 30-plus (9), and fourth in receptions of 40 yards or more (4).
According to PFF, Pickens is also the top-ranked WR on the Cowboys versus man coverage. He’ll face a lot of man schemes from the Commies, especially since head coach Dan Quinn (former Dallas DC) took over playcalling.
Pickens has posted a catch for 26 yards or more in nine of his 15 games, including a 38-yard touchdown strike against a much tougher L.A. Chargers pass defense last Sunday.
He’s projected to have a big day, with some models as high as 95 receiving yards, and the bulk of those gains will come on one deep ball.
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Cowboys vs Commanders same-game parlay
There’s a good chance the Cowboys could be facing third-stringer Josh Johnson, with Marcus Mariota dealing with a hand injury on a short week.
Pickens is one of the best deep-ball threats in the NFL and already struck for a 44-yard catch against the Commies earlier this season.
CeeDee Lamb is just as dangerous as his fellow WR and scored a touchdown against Washington in Week 7.
Cowboys vs Commanders SGP
- Cowboys moneyline
- George Pickens longest reception Over 25.5 yards
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: C-Rod Strikes
The Cowboys' offense should light up the scoreboard like a Christmas tree in this one.
Pickens has posted a catch for 26 yards or more in nine of his 15 games this season.
Lamb has drawn 17 red-zone targets and can also strike for deep TD catches.
Rodriguez could have a busy night with questions at QB for the Commies.
Cowboys vs Commanders SGP
- Cowboys moneyline
- George Pickens longest reception Over 25.5 yards
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
- Chris Rodriguez Over 47.5 rushing yards
Cowboys vs Commanders odds
- Spread: Dallas -3 (-115) | Washington (-105)
- Moneyline: Dallas -170 | Washington +145
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
Cowboys vs Commanders betting trend to know
Dallas is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when laying a touchdown or more versus a divisional foe since 2020. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Commanders.
How to watch Cowboys vs Commanders
| Location | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date | Thursday, December 25, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Netflix |
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