The Chicago Bears are looking for their first win of the 2025 season as they host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 of NFL action on Sunday.
Early money has come in on the Over, and my early Cowboys vs. Bears predictions are betting on plenty of points between two teams that have struggled to defend.
Here are my best NFL picks for the spread and total for this NFC clash on Sunday, September 21.
Cowboys vs Bears predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Cowboys vs Bears spread pick: Cowboys +1.5
The Chicago Bears seem headed towards another ugly season, starting the year off 0-2 and coming off a 52-21 loss to the Lions. They also collapsed in the fourth quarter in Week 1 against the Vikings to lose to a quarterback making his NFL debut.
The Dallas Cowboys also have issues, but have looked more competitive than the Bears. They lost a close contest to the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles in Week 1 before beating the Giants 40-37 in overtime last week.
While both of these defenses are awful, Dallas appears to have the edge on offense. Quarterback Dak Prescott has the second-best passing grade (88.0) in the league per PFF, while Bears pivot Caleb Williams is 18th in that metric (67.2).
George Pickens has finally given Dak a No. 2 WR to complement All-Pro CeeDee Lamb, and new RB Javonte Williams has also impressed, rushing for 151 yards on 33 carries.
I'll lean towards the team with the more reliable offense at essentially a pick'em line.
Early Cowboys vs Bears total pick: Over 50.5
Early money has poured in on the Over, shifting the total from 48.5 to 50.5, and I'm following that line movement.
The Cowboys are coming off a win against the Giants, where they rolled up 478 yards but also gave up 506. Dallas was also headed towards a high-scoring showdown with Philly in Week 1 before an hour-long lightning delay iced the offenses for both teams.
The Bears had a favorable matchup against a QB making his NFL debut in Week 1, and their defense still collapsed in the fourth quarter, where they surrendered 183 yards and 21 points. Chicago's defense was exposed big time last week, getting torched for 52 points and 8.8 yards per play.
Both stop units are also banged up. Dallas is still waiting for linebacker DeMarvion Overshown to recover from a knee injury, while Pro Bowl corner DaRon Bland is also sidelined.
Chicago's top linebacker, T.J. Edwards, and its two best corners, Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, are also dealing with injuries.
Cowboys vs Bears odds
- Cowboys vs. Bears spread: Cowboys +1.5 (-122), Bears -1.5 (+100)
- Cowboys vs. Bears moneyline: Cowboys -108, Bears -110
- Cowboys vs. Bears Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Cowboys vs Bears
- Cowboys vs. Bears matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Chicago, IL
- Venue: Soldier Field
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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