Ladies and gentlemen, it's teaser time!
Even though we’re low on options to build a six-point teaser doesn’t mean we’re low on opportunity because we have a few good ones in front of us ahead of the Super Bowl odds. You can make a case for Championship Sunday odds of the Chiefs, 49ers, or Lions, but this week I'll be doing something I haven't done all season — pairing a spread and a total.
Teasing totals can be a bit controversial, depending on who you ask, but I see value in the NFL odds with a six-point bump on a total, especially if I like the starting number to begin with.
With that said, let's get into it! Here are my NFL picks — six-point teaser edition — for Championship Sunday!
NFL Conference Championship teaser picks
6-point teaser
- KC-BAL Under (50.5)
- Lions (+13.5)
Picks made on January 26 at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Conference Championship Teaser
Chiefs - Ravens Under 50.5
Really, an Under in a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson? You're damn right!
Shockingly, the Kansas City Chiefs have only played in two games all season that have topped 50.5 points. The average combined score in their games was just 40 this season and I think they have more bright spots on their defense than on offense, while the same can probably be argued about the Baltimore Ravens.
Including the playoffs, the two teams rank first and second in points allowed while they each rank in the top three in yards per play allowed. Each is elite against the pass, as they're the top two teams in yards allowed per pass attempt, so we probably shouldn't expect a lot of quick scoring plays.
I also like that each defense has been strong in the red zone, while on offense, Baltimore runs it more than any other team which should keep the clock ticking.
Lions (+7.5 to +13.5) vs 49ers
The Detroit Lions play up to the competition. This has been part of their DNA since Dan Campbell took over as they've gone 17-4 ATS as an underdog of four or more since the start of his tenure. I also like that they've been an outright winner, as an underdog, in some high-profile road games such as the season opener in Kansas City and last season in Week 18 in Green Bay where they kept the Packers out of the playoffs.
Looking at the San Francisco 49ers, they haven't been a good bet at home where they're on a 0-6 ATS slide. They were far from dominant last week against the Packers as they didn't have a lead until there was 1:07 remaining in the game.
Brock Purdy wasn't as awful as some will make it out to be in that game, but he still wasn't great and the Lions will make him beat them. Detroit is strong against the run and they do a great job of pressuring the quarterback, so I doubt the 49ers will be able to pull away by 14 or more points.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Not intended for use in MA.
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