This article has gotten a lot easier to do in the playoffs.
Instead of digging into 12 to 16 games each week and finding my favorite NFL trends, it’s just a handful of games and I 100% embrace it after the four-month grind that is the NFL regular season.
While the volume of games decreases momentarily, business is about to seriously pick up for those of us in the sports betting content business as there’s a little game called the Super Bowl right around the corner. With the Super Bowl comes an avalanche of betting action, which translates to a need for an avalanche of sports betting content — and, that too, is something I embrace.
The finish line for another season is in sight, so let’s narrow that focus down in the NFL odds and finish strong! Championship Sunday's games will serve as an appetizer to the biggest game of the year and hopefully, the nuggets in this week’s trend report can help set you up strong for the Super Bowl and the rest of your NFL picks.
Let’s go!
Best NFL Conference Championship betting trends
Chiefs vs Ravens
The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 17 of 19 games this season
It’s the trend that will not die, so I will not stop betting on it. It had no business hitting last week in Buffalo, but the betting gods were on my side as a fumble through the end zone and a missed field goal kept it alive. This game has a second-half total of 21.5, which is reasonable considering the Kansas City Chiefs' second halves this season have averaged just 15 combined points.
The trend lines up pretty well with a Baltimore Ravens defense that’s been lights out in the second half of games lately. Aside from their Week 18 matchup where many starters rested, they’ve allowed a total of just 20 total second-half points in games against the Texans, Dolphins, 49ers, and Jaguars.
Bonus trend No. 1: Kansas City is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog with 15 outright wins
Bonus trend No. 2: Baltimore is a league-best 14-4 ATS in the first half
See all Chiefs vs. Ravens trends for the AFC Championship.
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Lions vs 49ers
The trend: The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games
There will likely be some buzz this week regarding concerns about the Detroit Lions playing on the road, but there probably shouldn’t be. Going back to last season, they’ve picked up some outright wins in high-stakes road games including in Week 18 last season in Green Bay and this season’s opening game in Kansas City.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers have shown some red flags at home vs. good competition, with outright losses to the Bengals and Ravens. And I think it’s fair to say they were very unimpressive in their win against the Packers last week as they didn’t have a lead until the 1:07 mark of the fourth quarter. To line this one up even more, San Francisco is 0-6 ATS in their last six at home.
Bonus Trend No. 1: The Lions are 17-4 ATS as an underdog of 4+ under Dam Campbell
Bonus Trend No. 2: 10 of the last 11 Lions’ games have gone Over the third quarter total
See all Lions vs. 49ers trends for the NFC Championship.
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