The Philadelphia Eagles enter their Week 10 prime-time matchup with the Washington Commanders as a double-digit favorite for the third straight week.
The game script might favor the pass from the visitors, but as we saw last week with Houston, teams can run against the Eagles and have success.
Here are my best NFL player prop picks for Monday Night Football’s match between the Commanders and Eagles. You can also check out our Commanders vs. Eagles picks and predictions and our Jalen Hurts spotlight prop picks.
Commanders vs Eagles props
- Brown Over 27.5 yards longest reception
- Robinson Over 34.5 rushing yards
- Heinicke Over 0.5 interceptions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Commanders vs Eagles MNF props
Brown bomb
Through eight games, A.J. Brown has a grab of at least 31 yards in five games. He’s also failed to haul in a 22-yard catch or longer just once this season and brought in a 38-yard grab vs. this same defense in Week 3. Even in the two games that the Eagles have been a heavy double-digit favorite, he’s had a 30-yard grab.
His longest reception is currently sitting at 26.5 yards which is pretty lengthy. Still, with an air yards/reception and yards after catch/reception higher than Tyreek Hill on the season, Brown has been getting downfield with ease and making catches.
Per Fantasy Pros Derek Brown, the Eagles receiver "will run about 74% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (62.2% catch rate, 117.9 passer rating) and Benjamin St.-Juste (52.1% catch rate, 93.2 passer rating).”
Brown also has the luxury of having one of the most-accurate deep-ball passers getting him the ball. Jalen Hurts’ 52.4% completion percentage on deep balls is the fifth-best mark in the NFL, per PlayerProfiler.
In that Week 3 meeting, Hurts had completions of 23, 31, 38, 40, 44, and 45 yards — making up 27% of all his completions. With Hurts’ longest completion at 38.5 yards, I’m more confident taking Brown at 26.5 yards as he has the fifth-best target share (30.7%) and third-best air-yard share (43%) in football.
The Eagles also use RPO more than any other team in the league (just ahead of Miami), and that sucks the linebackers up in the middle and allows for bigger chunk plays up the field.
A.J. Brown Prop: Over 26.5 yards longest reception (-114)
Running against this defense
The Eagles use a light box (six players inside the box) at the eighth-highest rate in football. We saw the consequences of it in Week 9 as Dameon Pierce ran 27 times 139 yards in the Houston loss.
Over the last three games, Washington has been one of the most run-heavy teams in football with a 50% run rate which is up substantially from its 40% run rate on the season. Playing close games is obviously a big reason for this, but Washington knows it isn’t going to win a ball game if quarterback Taylor Heinicke has to pass 40 times.
Rookie running back Brian Robinson has out-carried and out-rushed Antonio Gibson for five straight weeks. With J.D. McKissic likely out again, the third-round runner should get at least half of the carries Monday night.
Robinson's averaging 44 yards rushing yards per game on the season across five games. With his rushing total a yard shorter than Gibson’s at 34.5, I’m taking the Over despite many being afraid to hit it due to the possible game script.
One takeaway from Week 9 was that teams can get yards on the ground vs. the Eagles, who allow the fourth-highest yards per rush at 5.2 on the season. If the Commanders stay with the rush, yards will be there for at least two-plus quarters, and Robinson would be heavily involved.
Brian Robinson Prop: Over 34.5 rushing yards (-110)
Drinking the juice
Since taking over the starting job in Week 7, Taylor Heinicke has thrown one interception in each game, and those numbers might even be lucky for the QB.
No signal-caller has thrown more interceptable passes since Week 7 than the Washington quarterback at six. He’s getting just 1.99 yards of separation per attempt (25th) with his receivers and ranks 42nd in extra points added (EPA).
Heinicke is just not an accurate quarterback, and if they trail early, he could be passing a lot. Factoring out unpressured throwaways and drops (true completion percentage), the Washington QB ranks 31st in the league. In the Week 3 meeting, then-starter Carson Wentz had to pass 43 times as the Commanders faced a 24-0 deficit at halftime.
The Eagles have also been the best interception defense in football and lead the league at 1.5 picks per game. They had two last week against Davis Mills and have intercepted every QB they’ve faced except for Wentz this season.
Heinicke is unsurprisingly heavily juiced for an interception but is worth a two-unit play to win one in this spot. Bettors who have milestone markets might even want to look at his Over 1.5 interceptions at +230.
Taylor Heinicke Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-190)
