A Dallas Cowboys’ home game is a Thanksgiving tradition, and this year the Kansas City Chiefs are coming to dinner.
Both squads enter Week 13 after crazy comebacks, with Kansas City keeping its playoff hopes alive with a rally against Indianapolis, and Dallas climbing out of a 21-0 hole to stun the Super Bowl champion Eagles.
I size up the opening odds and line movement while giving my early Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks for November 27.
Chiefs vs Cowboys predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Chiefs vs Cowboys spread pick: Chiefs -3.5
The look-ahead line before the results of Week 12 listed the Kansas City Chiefs as 4-point road chalk on the holiday Thursday. After the Dallas Cowboys’ comeback against Philadelphia, the official opener came out at Kansas City -3.5 — just shy of the underrated key number of four.
As of Monday morning, K.C. -3.5 is a cheaper option with the vig on the favorite at -105. Considering there will be public support for both sides, I could see this spread sticking around a little while. But with the Chiefs still fighting to stay in the postseason picture, it wouldn’t surprise me to see K.C. -4 show up.
I’m leaning toward the Chiefs, but not for those reasons. Dallas’ comeback was more about the Eagles losing that game than the Cowboys winning it. Philadelphia jumped out to a three-score lead early on but turnovers and penalties breathed life into Dallas.
The Cowboys now run the risk of a letdown spot on a short week, which will be its third game in 10 days. They’re 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Thanksgiving games.
Early Chiefs vs Cowboys total pick: Under 51.5
This number bounced between 51.5 and 52.5 in the first hours of action, sitting just above the key total of 51 points.
Being a Thanksgiving Day game, a flood of public play will flock to the Over. This current number already looks padded for that action, so if you like the Under, just make sure you’re getting a number north of 51 points.
The Chiefs can’t afford to get into a shootout with the Cowboys due to a lack of explosive plays on offense. Kansas City will lean into possession football — as it did against Indianapolis — and methodically make its way down the field.
Kansas City’s defense did a great job limiting the most efficient attack in the league in Week 12, especially stuffing the Indy run game. Dallas will have a short window to prep for Steve Spagnoulo’s exotic blitzes, and that pass pressure won't give Dak Prescott time to hit his WRs for deep looks.
Chiefs vs Cowboys odds
- Chiefs vs Cowboys spread: Cowboys +3.5
- Chiefs vs Cowboys moneyline: Chiefs -185, Cowboys +155
- Chiefs vs Cowboys Over/Under: 51.5
How to watch Chiefs vs Cowboys
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys matchup
- Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025, 4:30 p.m. ET
- City: Arlington, TX
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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