Chiefs vs Cowboys Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for Thanksgiving Football Week 13

A Dallas Cowboys home game is always on the menu for Thanksgiving Day. 

And while family and friends chow down on turkey, stuffing, and mashed potatoes this Thursday, I’m feasting on Rice... Rashee Rice.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ shifty receiver is primed for a standout performance against the Dallas defense, and I’m banking on a big play for Turkey Day.

Here are my best Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks for November 27.

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction

Chiefs vs Cowboys Best bet: Rashee Rice longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-115)

Rashee Rice didn’t waste time finding his place upon return to the Kansas City Chiefs offense in Week 7. In his five games back from suspension, he’s amassed just shy of 400 yards, with 259 of those gains coming after the catch.

Rice averages 7.6 YAC per reception (tied for eighth highest) and takes on a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed foes to pour on the YAC like gravy, surrendering the fifth-most yards after the catch on the year.

“I mean, I'm not the biggest guy on the field, and I'm usually in the middle of the field, so I got big guys chasing me the whole time,” Rice told reporters about his ability to pick up extra yards after the catch. “And there's nothing like making 1-5 happy (Patrick Mahomes) when you complete a catch and turn up the field.”

What’s more, Rice is also an elite receiver versus zone coverage – something the Cowboys run at a Top-6 rate. And not very well, I should add. Dallas has allowed 34 completions of 20 yards or more and sits tied atop the NFL in passing plays of 40-plus against with 10 “home runs” on the season.

Rice is always a threat to break off big gains. In five games, he has seven completions for 20 yards or more and two of 40-plus, including two big catch-and-run receptions in the comeback win over the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.

He’s had at least one reception of 25 yards or more in three of his last four games, and if we go back to the injury-shortened 2024 campaign, Rice has topped a long of 25-plus yards in six of his last nine outings overall.

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Chiefs vs Cowboys TNF same-game parlay

Kansas City is pretty much playing for its playoff life each week. Dallas is in a tough spot, playing its third game in 10 days on Thanksgiving Thursday.

Rice is an elite receiver versus zone schemes and will pick apart a dreadful Dallas defense. His projections sit as high as 86 yards receiving.

Kareem Hunt is the trusted running back in the red zone and getting the goal-line touches.

Chiefs vs Cowboys SGP

• Chiefs moneyline
• Rashee Rice Over 74.5 receiving yards
• Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown

Our big-ticket SGP: Turkey Day triumph

Dallas hasn’t been good on the holiday and runs the risk of a letdown spot after an emotional comeback win over Philadelphia last weekend.

Hunt has scored a touchdown in each of the past four weeks.

George Pickens is red hot and has scored in each of the past two games.

Chiefs vs Cowboys SGP

• Chiefs moneyline
• Rashee Rice Over 74.5 receiving yards
• Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown
• George Pickens anytime touchdown

Chiefs vs Cowboys odds

• Spread: Kansas City -3 (-115) | Dallas +3 (-105)
• Moneyline: Kansas City -180 | Dallas +150
• Over/Under: Over 52 (-110) | Under 52 (-110)

Chiefs vs Cowboys betting trend to know

Kansas City is 8-3 SU and ATS in the regular season when set as road favorites of a field goal or shorter since 2018. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Cowboys.

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