In a rematch of Super Bowl LV, the Kansas City Chiefs will look to avenge their championship loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday night in a game that will take place in Florida following Hurricane Ian.
The Bucs are getting healthier on offense and face a Kansas City team that might be thin at wide receiver. Can Mahomes rebound vs. this defense Sunday night? Find out in my free NFL player prop picks for Sunday Night Football between the Chiefs and Buccaneers.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers props
- Mahomes Over 0.5 INT (+100)
- McKinnon Over 15.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Longest FG scored Under 46.5 (-115)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chiefs vs Buccaneers SNF props
Round 2
The last time Patrick Mahomes saw this defense, the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown in Super Bowl LV 19 months ago. The KC quarterback finished 26-for-49 passing for 270 scoreless yards and two picks. He took three sacks and was under pressure all game.
Heading into Week 4, this is still an elite Tampa Bay defense which is the reason why the team is 2-1 while supporting a sputtering offense. Todd Bowles’ defense has five interceptions already this season, which includes one off of Aaron Rodgers and at least one per game.
Mahomes has some of his receiving talents on the trainer’s table this Sunday as Mecole Hardman was limited and Marquez Valdez-Scantling was DNP at practice this week.
With Antoine Winfield likely in charge of taking away Travis Kelce, it could be another tough day through the air for Mahomes who was picked off last week in a comeback attempt.
Patrick Mahomes Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
In lieu of a running game
The Chiefs will have to pass on Sunday. They’re already running at a 37% clip and now face one of the best run-stopping teams. Injuries are going to play a huge part here as Marquez Valdez-Scantling (17% target share) was a DNP at practice Thursday while Mecole Hardman was limited after a DNP on Wednesday.
JuJu Smith-Schuster would be the common choice to hit here but I think there is better value with the Chiefs getting the running backs involved in the passing game in lieu of a running game. I’m targeting Jerick McKinnon as a result.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has seen 12 targets to McKinnon’s seven, but McKinnon ran more routes than CEH in Week 3 and had the reins of the two-minute offense. Because of the better output from CEH, bettors are getting a great number on McKinnon’s receiving total at 15.5 — five yards shorter than CEH’s.
McKinnon has seen more snaps than CEH on the season and I’d expected the better pass-catching RB to see his fair share of targets operating as the third-down back. His 37.5 total yards is also short considering the even split and CEH sitting at 61.5.
Jerick McKinnon Prop: Over 15.5 receiving yards (-110)
Kicking the tires
The Chiefs released kicker Matt Ammendola this week but starter Harrison Butker was DNP at practice on Thursday. He might be getting rushed back from a Week 1 foot injury.
Dave Toub, the Chiefs special teams coach, told reporters Thursday that Butker “Is a little sore” and that “It’s going to come down right to the end as to who is going to be up and who is going to be down.”
This is not a great situation for the Chiefs’ offense as it missed a field goal and an extra-point last week while also electing to go for it on 4th down instead of taking the three points.
There aren’t any player-kicking props open as of Friday afternoon, but there are still markets we can hit and fade this KC kicking game.
Instead of team prop to score the longest field goal, I’m hitting the Under 46.5 on the game’s longest field goal. Tampa’s Ryan Succop had a rough season from 40-plus yards last season (7-for-11) and has just four attempts at 50-plus yards over the last four seasons.
Andy Reid isn’t afraid to keep his offense on the field when inside the 50 and if Butker sits, I can’t see them attempting a long field goal with whoever is kicking. If Butker plays and isn’t 100% healthy, going for it on 4th and three on the 35 might be a better option
Game Prop: Longest field goal scored Under 46.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
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