Two potential NFC playoff opponents collide on Sunday Night Football, with the Chicago Bears facing the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.
The 49ers are -3 betting favorites at the best NFL betting sites. There are also plenty of SNF props available to bet on now.
Bears vs 49ers computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Bears |
 49ers |
|---|---|
| C. Williams Over 222.5 passing yards (-110) | B. Purdy Over 256.5 passing yards (-114) |
| C. Williams Over 1.5 passing TDs (-115) | C. McCaffrey Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114) |
| D. Swift Under 58.5 rushing yards (-108) | J. Jennings Under 59.5 receiving yards (-110) |
| C. Williams Over 16.5 rushing yards (-113) | C. McCaffrey Over 38.5 receiving yards (-118) |
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Bears SNF computer picks
Caleb Williams Over 222.5 passing yards (-110)
Projection: 224.6 passing yards
The 49ers have benefited from facing horrendous-to-mediocre offenses for over a month. It’s a huge reason why San Fran has won five games in a row. The last time they faced a real challenge came in Week 10, when the Rams hung 42 points on them.
Despite the easy recent schedule, the 49ers are 25th in Def Passing DVOA. Williams, meanwhile, has been playing brilliant football of late. The Bears signal-caller should be able to crack 222.5 yards in this spot.
I’ll start the week off by agreeing with the computer.
Caleb Williams passing TDs Over 1.5 (-115)
Projection: 1.58 passing TDs
The 49ers haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of quarterbacks in recent weeks, yet each of those subpar passers has still managed to throw at least one touchdown against San Francisco’s defense:
- Philip Rivers 2 TD passes vs. 49ers
- Cam Ward 2 TD passes vs. 49ers
- Shedeur Sanders 1 TD pass vs. 49ers
- Bryce Young 1 TD pass vs. 49ers
- Jacoby Brissett 2 TD passes vs. 49ers
D'Andre Swift Under 58.5 rushing yards (-108)
Projection: 54.5 rushing yards
The 49ers' run defense is pretty much as bad as its pass defense, and — from a props betting perspective — it's a great group to bet against.
San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh told reporters on Dec. 19 that he “gave up on yardage a long time ago.” Saleh is perfectly fine if an opposing running back jaunts for 180 yards, so long as his injury-riddled defense keeps the RB out of the end zone.
Swift has been a huge part of the Bears' recent success, averaging 86.0 rushing yards over the past four games.
I’ll disagree with the computer here and take the Swift Over.
Caleb Williams Over 16.5 rushing yards (-113)
Projection: 22.7 rushing yards
Williams hasn’t been running the ball as frequently as he did early in the season. Over his first four games, he logged 24 rushing attempts total, compared to just 15 carries across his last four outings.
This trend suggests Williams is growing more comfortable in the pocket and no longer relying on panic scrambles. As for this prop, I simply don’t trust him to get enough rushing volume to reach the number.
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49ers SNF computer picks
Brock Purdy Over 256.6 passing yards (-114)
Projection: 273.8 passing yards
Give me all the Purdy Overs!
Purdy is playing, arguably, the best football of any QB in the NFL at the moment. He has thrown for a combined 590 yards the past two weeks, with eight touchdowns and just one INT.
The Bears, meanwhile, rank 25th in Def Passing DVOA. Chicago has looked better the past two weeks, but those performances were primarily against Malik Willis and Shadeur Sanders.
This looks like a great spot for Purdy to go wild.
Christian McCaffrey Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 66.7 rushing yards
McCaffrey is like a vintage Lamborghini Miura. He’s kept in the garage for most of the year, as far as rushing yards are concerned, but there are certain points in the calendar when he gets to show out on the highway.
This is that part of the calendar year when McCaffrey gets to show off his wheels.
In the past four weeks, McCaffrey has had 20 or more rushing attempts in each outing. Compare that to the first 11 games of the season, when he had only four games in which he carried the ball 20 times or more.
Jauan Jennings Under 59.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 58.5 receiving yards
This one is very much dependent on whether George Kittle and/or Ricky Pearsall suit up this week. Both are banged up due to injury, and both would take away targets from Jennings if they play.
Under the assumption that at least one of them plays, I’m going to take the Under here.
Jennings has eclipsed 59.5 receiving yards in just one of his last five games.
Christian McCaffrey Over 38.5 receiving yards (-118)
Projection: 50.8 receiving yards
In each of McCaffrey’s first 12 games this season, he surpassed 38.5 receiving yards. The past three weeks, he’s finished Under that number, but it’s not for a lack of trying.
Last week against the Colts, Purdy targeted CMC eight times. McCaffrey caught six of those, two of which went for TDs. The yardage just wasn’t there, as he totaled 29 yards.
I like the volume to stay around the same for McCaffrey this week. He should be able to break one or two for large gains and cash this prop.
