Buccaneers vs Panthers Week 7 Picks and Predictions: Evans a Focal Point in Divisional Clash

The NFC South is a mystery wrapped in a riddle eaten by a goat with IBS and pooped out on a hornet's nest. Really, that’s the best way to break down this division and this NFL Week 7 meeting between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers.

Carolina continues to pick up the piece from a terrible first third of the 2022 schedule, entering Week 7 under an interim coach and left to start a third-string quarterback who’s light one receiver after the team dealt disgruntled WR Robbie Anderson following his sideline fit last week.

Tampa Bay may not be as chaotic as its divisional counterpart, but the Bucs have been sailing rough waters in the first six weeks of football. This team was supposed to be the class of the conference but instead has only one win in its last four games (0-4 ATS), including an embarrassing loss as a 9.5-point fave to Pittsburgh last weekend.

Tom Brady & Co. are once again laying the lumber on the road in Week 7. I dig into why that is, breaking down the point spread and total as well as giving my best NFL picks and predictions for the Buccaneers at Panthers on October 23.

Buccaneers vs Panthers best odds

Buccaneers vs Panthers picks and predictions

The Buccaneers’ offense is a far cry from the unit that finished second in points per game the previous two seasons. And while mustering only 16 points in the loss to Pittsburgh has many pushing the panic button in pirate bay, Tampa’s troubles seem fixable given the quality of talent on the field.

A simple solution, put forth by head coach Todd Bowles, is getting the ball in the hands of the Buccaneers’ best players — namely Mike Evans. 

Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich was lambasted after the Week 6 loss for not involving Evans enough. The Bucs’ WR1 was targeted only four times last Sunday, catching all four balls for a total of 42 yards receiving.

“We definitely talked about that,” Bowles told the media about Evans’ lack of targets.

“We’ve got to find a way to get our stars the ball. Move them around, get them off picks, double (teams) — we have to find a way to get them the ball more. Obviously, teams are going to try to double (Evans) and take him away more; we have to do a better job of getting him the ball.”

Evans was slowed by injury to start 2022 and was suspended for Week 3 for an altercation with the Saints the week prior but had been much more prominent in the offense in his first two games back from that hiatus. 

He drew 18 total targets for 12 catches and a combined 184 yards against Kansas City and Atlanta — playing over his receiving yards prop total in both of those contests (103 vs 65.5 O/U and 81 vs. 60.5 O/U). Last week, his 42 yards receiving fell short of the 65.5-yard prop versus Pittsburgh.

Evans gets a favorable matchup with the Panthers in Week 7. Carolina’s overall pass defense metrics are a bit skewed because it faced some weaker QB competition to start the season (Brissett, Jones, broken Winston) but has been roughed up through the air the last three outings, ranked out 28th in EPA per dropback allowed against the likes of Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Those issues coincide with injuries to Carolina the secondary, which still linger heading into this home date with the Bucs. The Panthers starting corners are listed as questionable (Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson) along with CB C.J. Henderson and safety Sean Chandler.

Evans has averaged 66.2 yards per game over 15 career matchups with the Panthers, getting targeted an average of 9.6 times for just under five receptions an outing. Last season, No. 13 made only one appearance against Carolina, reeling in six of seven targets for 89 yards receiving and two touchdowns in Week 18.

Since that last run-in with the Panthers, Evans has gone Over his receiving yards prop total in six of eight outings — easily surpassing this modest total of 65.5 yards in Week 8. With added intention to get him the ball, a depleted Carolina secondary, and plenty of offensive snaps coming for Tampa Bay (Panthers 30th in opponent plays/game), Evans will eclipse this total with ease.

My best bet: Mike Evans Over 65.5 receiving yards (-110)

Buccaneers vs Panthers spread analysis

The lookahead spread for this NFC South showdown was sitting at Tampa Bay -6 in the summer and considering the problems the Panthers have faced in the first six weeks, you can see why the official Week 7 opener was so high, hitting the board at Bucs -10. 

Carolina has been left with QB P.J. Walker under center due to injuries to Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, and even Walker heads into Week 7 dinged up after leaving last Sunday’s start against the L.A. Rams. 

The Panthers are just a week removed from firing head coach Matt Rhule and working under interim head coach Steve Wilks, who is fighting to keep control of a locker room that could be bailing on the season after watching WR Robbie Anderson have an altercation on the sideline last Sunday and promptly get traded to Arizona less than 24 hours later.

The spread has since run as high as Tampa Bay -11 — a move that speaks more to the calamity in Carolina than the Bucs actually being deserving of a spread so larger. Tampa Bay hasn’t looked anything like a Super Bowl contender in 2022, and while injuries to the offense have played a hand, the Buccaneers have just been playing bad football in the first third of the year.

Tampa Bay has dropped three of its last four games while failing to cover the spread in each of those outings. This Brady-led offense is the biggest culprit, unable to close out drives with points on the board. The Buccaneers sit 21st in yards per point and lug a 50% TD rate inside the red zone on the season, including a 1-for-4 day inside the 20-yard line last Sunday.

Adding to the lack of appeal for Tampa is a sticky situational spot. This game will be the team’s second straight road game and a potential lookahead spot awaits, as the Buccaneers have a quick turnaround in Week 8: playing Baltimore at home on Thursday Night Football. Given the injury history, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bucs take a big lead and start to pull starters in the second half — leaving things wide open for a backdoor cover considering the size of this spread and the inability to put opponents away.

Despite the scoring issues, situational spot, and massive point spread, early money isn’t backing away from the Bucs. DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting two-way play on the spread in terms of ticket count, but 67% of the money is laying the points with Tampa Bay in Week 7.

Buccaneers vs Panthers Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead total, set back in the offseason, was at 48 points. But considering Tampa Bay’s offensive woes and the Panthers’ pop-gun attack with a third-stringer under center, the official Week 7 Over/Under hit the board at 41 and has sunk as low as 40 points as of this writing.

While their respective offensive units stumble, the defense is the backbone of both teams. Tampa Bay remains an elite stop unit, ranked No. 4 in DVOA at Football Outsiders and seventh in EPA allowed per play entering Week 7. 

Carolina’s defense has been overworked, logging the most minutes of any stop unit in the league, and that wear and tear has started to show. But it still ranks out 12th in EPA allowed per play and has been solid in stopping the run, giving up 4.2 yards per carry and limiting foes to a success rate of 39% per handoff.

These divisional rivals remain two of the better Under bets so far this season, with Tampa Bay at 1-5 O/U and Carolina sitting 2-4 O/U. DraftKings books are reporting 57% of bets on the Over but 58% of the handle is banking on the Under. 

Buccaneers vs Panthers betting trend to know

Since 2020, the Panthers are just 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS in divisional games, including a 2-5 SU and ATS mark versus the NFC South at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Panthers.

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