Our first look at the NFL Week 8 odds comes on Thursday Night Football, as the Buffalo Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game Buffalo fans hope will get the Bills back on the wagon.
Buffalo is coming off a surprising loss to the New England Patriots last week. That follows two uninspired performances in a win over the New York Giants and another loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Many people are predicting a bounce back performance for the Bills, but it’s hard to know if they’ll put together a complete game even as a big favorite in our Thursday Night Football odds.
If you’d rather look to NFL player props markets for your NFL picks on Thursday, we’ve got you covered. Keep reading to see my top selections for this week’s TNF showdown. While you’re at it, take a look at our Buccaneers vs. Bills predictions and our Josh Allen prop picks for complete coverage of this matchup.
Buccaneers vs Bills TNF props
- Diggs Over 86.5 rec yds
- White Over 44.5 rush yds
- Bass Over 1.5 FG made
Picks made on October 25 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Buccaneers vs Bills TNF props
Prop bet #1: Buffalo Diggs Deep
When we talk about Buffalo getting right on Thursday, we’re looking for the Bills offense to kick things back into gear. Ultimately, that means Allen and the passing game need to be as explosive as we know they are capable.
The Buccaneers provide a good opportunity for Buffalo to figure things out in the aerial attack. Tampa Bay is allowing 246.7 yards per game through the air, as well as 6.8 yards per attempt. As much as the Bills have looked like a struggling offense over the last three weeks, they’re still fourth in quarterback rating (99.9), and are completing passes at a 70.7% rate, second-best in the NFL.
That sets up well for a big game through the air from Allen, and Stefon Diggs should be the biggest beneficiary. Diggs is already averaging nearly 97 yards receiving per game, and is by far Allen’s favorite target, catching 31.6% of Buffalo’s passes and getting 33% of the targets in this offense.
Diggs has gone over 100 yards receiving in five of Buffalo’s first seven games, and doesn’t even have to get to that mark to reach his yardage prop on Thursday. Let’s look for Allen to get his favorite receiver into the action early and often this week.
Stefon Diggs prop: Over 86.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Prop bet #2: Ground and pound
If Tampa Bay wants to keep up with Buffalo for 60 minutes, it'll need to slow the game down. That works well in this matchup, as the Bills defense has struggled against the run this year, something that recent opponents have shown can be exploited.
In their last three games, the Bills have given up an average of 141.3 rushing yards. For the year, Buffalo is allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt, the second-worst mark in the league. This could be an ongoing area of concern for the Bills, especially as opposing teams are probably incentivized to control the ball and time of possession even if they wouldn’t normally rely on their running backs to carry the load.
We can only assume that Tampa Bay’s coaching staff has figured this out. That should mean plenty of touches for Rachaad White, the clear No. 1 in the Buccaneers backfield. White is averaging 44.3 yards per game, but he’s doing that on relatively low volume, as he has only had 83 carries over his first six contests.
There’s a clear plan of attack for the Bucs tonight, and the ground game should be a focus. I’m predicting a methodical, physical approach for Tampa Bay, one that will give Buffalo trouble based on what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. White will get the bulk of the carries, and that should mean 17-20 attempts for the former Arizona State Sun Devil. Against the Bills, that should be more than enough to cover his yardage prop.
Rachaad White prop: Over 44.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365|+137 at bet365 with 50% boost)
Prop bet #3: Bass fishing
Another player who needs to get right this week for the Bills is kicker Tyler Bass. With the offense floundering, he hasn’t gotten a whole lot of attempts of late. But when he has stepped up to make kicks, Bass is just 1-for-4 on field goals over the past two weeks, missing everything over 40 yards.
We can expect better than that from Bass going forward. He started the year a perfect 9-for-9, and has finished with a field-goal percentage of at least 82.4% in every year of his young career. Even from distance, Bass has historically been accurate, hitting 61% of his attempts from beyond 50 yards.
I expect the Buffalo offense to perform better this week, but as we’ve seen lately, the Bills aren’t reaching the end zone on a regular basis. Over the course of the game, Buffalo will move the ball, but we can expect at least a few drives to stall in Tampa Bay territory.
When that happens, Bass will get the call. Rather than worry about his last two games, let’s look at the historical data and know that we can rely on him to put the ball through the uprights the vast majority of the time. We can get nearly even money on Bass to make Over 1.5 field goals in this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets at least three attempts — more than enough for him to cover that number..
Tyler Bass prop: Over 1.5 field goals made (-104 at Caesars|+144 at Caesers with 50% boost)
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