Buccaneers vs Bills Odds, Picks, and TNF Predictions: Shakir Shows Up in Prime Time

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have come up short in two straight games and now face the Buffalo Bills on the road under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Bills are without Dawson Knox and have narrowly avoided a nasty 0-3 stretch. 

Buffalo — still a significant NFL odds favorite — hasn't put numbers on the board early, with just 10 first-half points over its last three games. But with Knox out, the offense should be deploying more three-WR sets, which creates plenty of value for the Bills’ secondary receivers in the latest TNF odds. 

Here are my free NFL picks for Buccaneers at Bills in NFL Week 8 odds. Be sure to also check out our Buccaneers vs. Bills props and our spotlight on Josh Allen props before kickoff.

Buccaneers vs Bills odds

Buccaneers vs Bills predictions

Dawson Knox is going for wrist surgery and will miss some time, which will likely force the Buffalo Bills offense to go from heavy two-TE sets to more three-WR sets, which should put wide receiver Khalil Shakir on the field more frequently. Buffalo currently runs two-TE sets at the fourth-highest rate in football but third-stringer Quintin Morris likely isn't going to be thrust into an important role. 

He is currently paying big bucks to score a TD in a game where the offense is projected to score roughly 25 points as an 8.5-point favorite. Shakir has played the third-most WR snaps for three straight games and is coming off his best game of the season last week where he had four catches on four targets and 35 yards. 

The production might not be an outlier as Knox had been dealing with that wrist injury since the Week 5 loss to the Jags and Shakir posted back-to-back season-highs in snaps in Week 6 and Week 7.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just allowed Desmond Ridder to post 9.4 yards per pass attempt last week and currently rank in the bottom half of the league in success rate and EPA/play vs. the pass. Since Week 5, that number plummets to last.

With how anemic the Buffalo offense has been of late in the first half — scoring just 10 points over their last three first halves — it is likely a point to come out swinging this week. 

All of Shakir’s Overs are in play but this TD price is hard to pass up on any player getting five-plus targets a game.

Without Knox, the goal-line offense could look different, as well. With Latavius Murray going scoreless in his last six red-zone carries, Buffalo might elect a different approach near the goal line. One that might be more spread out. 

With most bettors likely looking for Dalton Kincaid Overs on Thursday night, I’m looking at this a little differently and not passing on a Shakir TD at +700 for 0.5 units.   

My best bet: Khalil Shakir anytime touchdown (+700 at FanDuel) 50% boost available

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Buccaneers vs Bills same-game parlay

Khalil Shakir anytime touchdown

Over 42.5

Dalton Kincaid Over 33.5 receiving yards

50% boost available

+1,918 +2,877 at FanDuel

The Shakir TD is a great play and I suggest betting it alone at this price, but this is fairly correlated SGP at nearly 20/1 with the second and third legs likely closing higher.

If the Bills move to more 3-WR sets, it should be Shakir getting the most snaps/routes as he has had the third-most WR snaps for three straight weeks. 

Kincaid will be a very popular play and this number could close higher. He set career highs in catches (8), targets (8), and yards (75) last week and will face a Tampa team that gave up 74 yards to Atlanta tight ends on six catches (seven targets). 

Both of these defenses have been generous over the last three weeks and the Bucs are still one of the worst rushing teams in football. Passing means more plays and higher scores. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Buccaneers vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis

I was on the Bills team total Over 24.5 last week and it was no fun. It won but was likely the wrong side in hindsight. I thought their struggles in Weeks 5 and 6 had a lot to do with the schedule and trips across the Atlantic, but this offense came out flat for a third straight game and the defense couldn’t get off the field. 

The Bills are still dealing with a ton of injuries on defense: most notably LB Matt Milano, who is elite in coverage, Ed Oliver, and Tre’Davious White. Since the trip to London, this is the No. 29 defense in EPA/play. Perhaps the loss of DC Leslie Frazier has had an impact and is worth a discussion. It's not like the Bills have faced elite offenses over that stretch in Jacksonville, the Giants, and New England.  

Despite that, I’m not running out to get the Bucs at +8.5. This line was Buffalo -9 on the look-ahead, reopened, and hit as low as -7. Following Monday’s estimated injury report where Tampa QB Baker Mayfield was listed as a non-participant, Buffalo took some money that drove this number up to 8.5. Mayfield’s designation seems more rest than anything else on the short week and he doesn’t seem to be in danger of missing TNF. 

The Bucs’ red-zone defense has covered up a lot of the issues with the defensive unit. Ridder threw for 250 yards on just 25 passes last week but Atlanta went 1-for-5 inside the 20. Tampa has the No.1 RZ defense at 23% which is a hard number to maintain as the league median is 52%.

Buffalo can move the ball in the air vs. this defense that ranks dead last in success rate vs. the pass since Week 5. But thanks to that Buffalo defense, both teams might be able to move the ball and that is why bettors are seeing some Over money hit the market moving this from 42 on the look-ahead to 42.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.

Chris Godwin had the same non-participant tag as Mayfield on Monday but if I had to bet, I’d expect to see the Tampa offense at full strength on Thursday. If Mac Jones — a QB who was benched in two of his three games before last week — can set season-highs vs. the Bills, Tampa and Mayfield should move the ball.

I like the Over here at 42.5 and expect the Bills offense to look pass-heavy without Knox and the likely heavy usage of three-WR sets. 

Buccaneers vs Bills betting trend to know

The Bills have hit the first quarter game total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Bills.

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