Jacksonville hosts Buffalo in the AFC Wild Card Round on Saturday, and despite this shaping up as Josh Allen’s prime Super Bowl opportunity, our Bills vs. Jaguars predictions see the Jaguars putting up stiff resistance right away.
Take a deep dive into our best bets before kickoff comes at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 11.
Bills vs Jaguars Wild Card predictions
- Jaguars -1.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
- Under 51.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
- Etienne Jr. anytime TD (-140 at FanDuel)
- Allen o227.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Bills vs Jaguars Wild Card best bets
Jaguars -1.5
The Buffalo Bills are small road favorites, but they really shouldn't be since the Jacksonville Jaguars enter the playoffs red-hot, going 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
The Jaguars finished the regular season with one more win than Buffalo, despite facing a tougher schedule, and are also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings.
Jacksonville is fifth in the league in defensive EPA and has been strong against both the run and pass. On the other side of the ball, Travis Etienne will churn out yards against a Bills run defense that is near the bottom of the league in every metric.
/ Under 51.5
This total is too high when you consider that Buffalo has allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL (156.9) while the Jags have allowed a league-low 85.6 ypg on the ground. Expect both teams to try to control this game on the ground, leading to the Under 51.5 cashing.
Bills vs Jaguars Wild Card TD picks
Travis Etienne Jr. anytime TD
The Bills have allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs than any team in the NFL, giving up 18 this season. Factor in catches, and running backs have scored 21 total against them.
That’s not the only reason Travis Etienne Jr. is the best bet on the board for the Jaguars, as Buffalo has also surrendered the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns, with just 19 through 17 games.
Expect the Jaguars’ running back to find what many call the “ETN-zone” at least once.
Bills vs Jaguars Wild Card props
Josh Allen Over 227.5 passing yards
Josh Allen has always performed at a high level in the playoffs, and Sunday marks the start of a hopeful Super Bowl run for the Buffalo Bills. The quarterback didn’t play in the season finale against the New York Jets, but he did cash the Over in passing yards in two of his previous four games.
The last time Allen took the field, he threw for 262 yards in a 13-12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The signal-caller threw for 3,668 yards this season, and while he averaged just 187 yards per contest on the road, there’s reason to believe he’ll ball out on Sunday.
The Jags’ secondary ranks 21st in the NFL in passing yards allowed. This is not a strength for Jacksonville. After a week off, I’ll take Allen to make his presence felt downfield.
Bills vs Jaguars odds
Bills vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, January 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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