The first of two Monday Night Football matchups in Week 6 sends the Buffalo Bills down south for a showdown with the Atlanta Falcons.
Buffalo is in bounce-back mode after a stunning loss on Sunday night. Atlanta is well-rested after a bye in Week 5, looking to build momentum in the middle of October.
I run down the odds for this non-conference clash and give my early Bills vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks for October 13.
Bills vs Falcons predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early MNF spread pick: Falcons +4.5
Four is an undervalued key number in football betting, sitting just behind the common margins of three, six, seven, and 10. Getting a home team with a hook on that 4-point spread is tough not to take.
The Atlanta Falcons are rested and prepped after watching the Buffalo Bills struggle to move the ball against the Patriots’ defense on Sunday night. New England may have laid a blueprint for slowing down Josh Allen, and the Falcons’ blitz-heavy defense has been a pleasant surprise to start 2025.
Atlanta can also poke a soft spot in the Buffalo stop unit with a two-head beast on the ground.
Running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier power a relentless rushing attack that hands off at the sixth-highest rate. The Bills defense has been pushed around on the ground, rating 28th in EPA allowed per handoff and 30th in yards given up per carry (5.1).
I’ll lean toward the points with the home side.
Early MNF total pick: Over 48.5
This total opened as high as 50.5 points and initial action on the Under knocked this down to 48.5 Over/Under by Monday afternoon. I’m leaning toward the Over with this drop in the number.
Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. is looking sharper as the starter and connecting with his talented receivers. He had big games at home versus Tampa Bay and Washington already in 2025.
Josh Allen gets to hit the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday night. He’s yet to play indoors this season but sees a spike in production in rare spots under a dome, including jumps in average yards per attempt and completion rate.
After Sunday night’s poor performance, Allen is going to let it rip on MNF.
Bills vs Falcons odds
- Bills vs. Falcons spread: Falcons +4.5
- Bills vs. Falcons moneyline: Bills -215, Falcons +180
- Bills vs. Falcons Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Bills vs Falcons
- Bills vs. Falcons matchup
- Date: Monday, October 13, 2025, 7:15 p.m. ET
- City: Atlanta, GA
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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