MVP candidate Drake Maye will make his playoff debut this weekend. The New England Patriots quarterback often holds the ball too long to make plays, which could be costly against Tuli Tuipulotu and the Los Angeles Chargers’ pass rush.
My NFL picks are headlined by the Bolts’ sack artist, as I break down my favorite player props for Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Wild Card Weekend prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Kyren Williams |
Over 64.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 D.J. Moore |
Over 2.5 rushing yards | +106 |
 Josh Allen |
Over 225.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Tuli Tuipulotu |
To record a sack | -136 |
 Dallas Goedert |
Anytime touchdown | +190 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Wild Card Weekend
Prop pick: Kyren Williams Over 64.5 rushing yards
Saturday's game in Charlotte will have 14 mph winds and a 70% chance of rain, which could make passing tough. The Los Angeles Rams already had an implied running game script as 10.5-point faves, and the weather is another reason to expect them to lean on their rushing attack.
With L.A. using both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum down the stretch, it's tough to decide which running back to bet on. That said, Williams has gotten the majority of touches in big games, and they don't get any bigger than the playoffs.
Williams has rushed for 70+ yards in five of his last six contests, including against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13 when he rumbled for 72 yards. The Panthers surrendered a whopping 144.8 rushing yards per game in the final 10 weeks of the regular season.
Prop pick: D.J. Moore Over 2.5 rushing yards
The Green Bay Packers have an aggressive, fast-flowing defense, which makes them vulnerable on end-arounds. Ben Johnson will have to be creative and give the Packers looks they didn't see in Weeks 14 and 16, so bet on him to get Chicago Bears wideout D.J. Moore involved in the run game.
Moore was utilized that way earlier this season, rushing for more than 2.5 yards in six of his first eight games while totaling 12 carries over that span. However, he was given just three rush attempts in his last nine games.
Chicago needs to get the ball into the hands of its speedy wideout, and using him in the ground game might be the way to do it.
Prop pick: Josh Allen Over 225.5 passing yards
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a strong run defense, so Buffalo Bills RB James Cook might struggle on the ground. That should push Buffalo to rely on Josh Allen to attack a vulnerable secondary.
Allen is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, but his passing output can fluctuate with game script and weather.
With this game near a pick’em, he’ll likely throw more than usual. Add in balmy 65-degree temperatures — the nicest elements he’s seen since Week 12 — and the passing game should thrive.
Prop pick: Tuli Tuipulotu to record a sack
Drake Maye had a strong regular season but was sacked 47 times, the fourth-most in the league. The New England Patriots QB also ranked fifth in pressure rate and took the seventh-longest time to throw (2.81 seconds) among QBs with at least 100 plays.
Maye often holds the ball too long, partly because his receivers struggle to separate. Against a stingy Los Angeles Chargers pass defense, he’ll be an easy target in the pocket.
Expect edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu to capitalize. He finished the season sixth in sacks (13) and 11th in pressures (70), recording a sack in six of his last nine games.
Prop pick: Dallas Goedert anytime touchdown
The anytime touchdown prop for Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert looks mispriced at +190, especially compared to wideouts AJ Brown (+150) and DeVonta Smith (+185).
Goedert leads Philadelphia with 11 touchdowns — equal to Brown and Smith combined — and saw a team-high 15 red-zone targets, hauling in 13 for 10 scores.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers struggle more against tight ends than wide receivers, ranking 24th in receptions allowed to TEs and giving up 10 touchdowns to the position. With San Francisco 30th in defensive success rate, expect the Eagles to move the ball and put Goedert in prime scoring position near the goal line.
NFL Wild Card Weekend prop betting card
- Williams Over 64.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Moore Over 2.5 rushing yards (+106)
- Allen Over 225.5 passing yards (-114)
- Tuipulotu to record a sack (-136)
- Goedert anytime touchdown (+190)
My NFL weekly props column is 50-35 this season for +10.48 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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