It’s the second-to-last week of the NFL regular season, and we have some intriguing matchups on the board.
My NFL picks expect Baltimore to lean on Derrick Henry on Saturday night, while the Bears will contain Christian McCaffrey through the air on Sunday Night Football.
Here are my top NFL player props for Week 17.
NFL Week 17 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Danielle Hunter |
To Record a Sack - Yes | -160 |
 Derrick Henry |
Over 16.5 rushing attempts | -102 |
 Jacoby Brissett |
Over 37.5 passing attempts | -114 |
 Tyler Shough |
Over 221.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Christian McCaffrey |
Under 42.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 17
Prop pick: Danielle Hunter to record a sack
Houston Texans edge rusher Danielle Hunter was the league's biggest Pro Bowl snub this year. Hunter ranks fourth in the NFL with 13 sacks and fifth in pressures (75). He should thrive against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have surrendered 51 sacks due to multiple injuries at tackle.
Left tackle Rashawn Slater has missed the entire year, while stud sophomore Joe Alt hit the IR in November. Jamaree Salyer was holding down the blindside but got injured last week and is ruled out for Week 17.
Hunter usually lines up on the right side, giving him a juicy matchup against whoever the Bolts are forced to play at LT. He’s recorded at least half a sack in five of his last seven games and should pressure Justin Herbert on Saturday.
Prop pick: Derrick Henry Over 16.5 rushing attempts
The Baltimore Ravens will start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley on Saturday night as they fight for their playoff lives. Expect Baltimore to take pressure off their backup by relying on Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry.
Henry has logged at least 18 carries in eight of his last 10 games, including Huntley’s previous start this season when he rushed 21 times for 71 yards versus the Bears in Week 8.
The 247-pound sledgehammer thrives in cold-weather games late in the season and has topped 90 yards in his previous three outings. He should see plenty of work against a Green Bay Packers defense that has allowed 29.8 rush attempts per game over the last four weeks.
Prop pick: Jacoby Brissett Over 37.5 passing attempts
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett had been a money-making machine until last week’s hiccup.
Before that poor outing, Brissett had surpassed his passing yards total in each of his first nine starts and recorded 40+ pass attempts in his previous six games. Expect a bounce-back performance on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati ranks dead last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate, giving Brissett plenty of room to move the ball through the air. The Bengals are also 7-point favorites, which could create a negative game script for Arizona, though the Cardinals have been passing at an extremely high rate even in neutral situations.
Prop pick: Tyler Shough Over 221.5 passing yards
Expect a push for Offensive Rookie of the Year from New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough.
The second-round pivot didn’t start until Week 8, but Shough has come on strong down the stretch. He’s thrown for more than 235 yards in five of his previous six games and is coming off a career-high 308-yard performance against the Jets.
Shough has a favorable matchup on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, who rank 27th in defensive pass DVOA. The Titans benefitted from facing a third-string QB last week, but they had allowed 275.4 passing yards per game in their previous seven contests.
Prop pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 42.5 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey was initially on pace to shatter the NFL record for receiving yards by a running back, but he has slowed down over the last few weeks.
Through the first 12 games of the year, McCaffrey averaged 65.4 receiving yards per game. However, he hasn’t cracked the 30-yard mark in his last three games, averaging just 21.3 yards per outing during that span.
It isn’t that McCaffrey has played poorly; the San Francisco 49ers’ previously banged-up receiving corps is now healthy. With a plethora of dangerous targets for Brock Purdy, McCaffrey is seeing fewer opportunities.
C-Mac will be limited in the passing game by a Chicago Bears defense that has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards per game (24.2) to opposing running backs.
NFL Week 17 prop betting card
- Hunter to record a sack (-160)
- Henry Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-202)
- Brissett Over 37.5 passing attempts (-114)
- Shough Over 221.5 passing yards (-114)
- McCaffrey Under 42.5 receiving yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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