The Cincinnati Bengals know all about life without Joe Burrow. It sucks.
And so did Cincinnati, getting blasted in its first full game without the star quarterback.
The Bengals, who were trounced by 38 points in Week 3, travel up the mountain to face the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 4.
Here are my early Bengals vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks for Monday, September 29.
Bengals vs Broncos predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early MNF spread pick: Denver -7
We knew things would be rough for the Cincinnati Bengals, given just how bad the offensive line and defense have played. Backup Jake Browning was constantly hounded by Minnesota’s defense in Week 3, leading to a dismal day under center.
The Bengals battle another stingy defense on MNF in Week 4. The Denver Broncos are coming off two tight losses to Indianapolis and Los Angeles, yet still rank No. 7 in EPA allowed per play and No. 4 in opponent success rate.
Denver’s pass rush will go to work against a porous Bengals protection. It leads the NFL with 12 sacks and rates No. 4 in pressure rate. Cincy, on the other hand, has allowed one of the highest pressure rates against its quarterbacks and is near the bottom of the NFL in pass block win rate.
The Broncos offense should see plenty of possessions – and that’s if the defense doesn’t turn all that pressure into takeaways and touchdowns. Denver ran the ball well against the Chargers and can wear down this Bengals defense, which sits among the softest run-stopping units.
Early MNF total pick: Under 44
This Over/Under had already been taken down from 44.5 points, with early play on the Under.
Without Burrow, this offense has no teeth. Browning doesn’t have the same decision-making in the pocket, and with injuries stacking up on the offensive line – as well as key blockers at TE and RB – the Broncos’ pass pressure will feast in Week 4.
Just 36.2% of Browning’s passes have been on target, and he’s unable to push the ball beyond the chains, averaging a mere 3.1 air yards per attempt. Denver plays man coverage almost exclusively – something Browning hasn’t seen much of in his last two games.
The Broncos offense doesn’t need to do anything special to move the chains against Cincinnati. The offensive line is one of the best in the land and will keep Cincy’s pass rush at bay while plowing the road for the run game to control possession and tempo.
Denver has a big game at Philadelphia in Week 5, so you could see this team pull starters and throttle down in the second half to conserve energy for the short week and physical game ahead.
Bengals vs Broncos odds
- Bengals vs. Broncos spread: Broncos -7
- Bengals vs. Broncos moneyline: Bengals +300, Broncos -380
- Bengals vs. Broncos Over/Under: 44
How to watch Bengals vs Broncos
- Bengals vs Broncos matchup
- Date: Monday, September 29, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Denver, CO
- Venue: Empire Field at Mile High
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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