Bears vs Seahawks Preseason Picks and Predictions: Ugly Offense Keeps TNF Under

Neither Chicago nor Seattle left their first preseason game feeling great about their QB play, and shoddy lines will only make it worse this week. Our Bears vs. Seahawks NFL betting picks break it all down after Seattle's QB outlook changed midweek.

Last Updated: Aug 18, 2022 4:21 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks NFL
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It’s not exactly Thursday Night Football season yet, but the Seattle Seahawks will host the Chicago Bears at Lumen Field tonight for preseason Week 2 action.

Drew Lock was set to start and play the first half for the Hawks but health and safety protocols has sidelined him, so the home side will roll with Geno Smith and likely Jacob Eason.

Even with Overs going 14-3 in Week 1, I’m not expecting much offensively Thursday night with both teams on a quick turnaround. Find out why in my free NFL picks and predictions for Bears vs. Seahawks below.

Bears vs Seahawks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Seattle opened as 3.5-point favorites on Monday, moved to -5.5, and then slid back down to -3.5 after the news of Drew Lock getting COVID. The total also saw similar movement after opening at 39.5, moving to 42.5, and then settling back down to 39.5 with the Lock news.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Bears vs Seahawks predictions

Predictions made on 8/17/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Bears vs Seahawks game info

Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Date: Thursday, August 18, 2022
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET

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Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-2 in Seahawks’ last eight Thursday games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Seahawks.

Bears vs Seahawks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Drew Lock was the better of the two Seattle quarterbacks last week vs. the Steelers, but a positive COVID test on Tuesday will keep the projected starter on the sideline tonight.

Lock went 11 for 15 with a touchdown in the preseason opener and looked sharp, but he’ll watch Geno Smith run with the ones. Smith orchestrated three punts and a field goal in his first four drives before rushing for a TD in the final two minutes on Saturday's preseason opener. 

The line moved from SEA -5.5 to -3.5 after the news about Lock broke.

Smith was 10-of-15 and had some drops that could have made that line better. His protection also held up flawlessly in Week 1 and allowed just one pressure. That is one of the biggest differences between these two teams in the preseason, as the Bears were awful in protection last week and I’m not expecting it to get any better in their second game on short rest.

The Bears are projected to have the worst offensive line this season, per Pro Football Focus, and looked the part last week vs. the Chiefs. In total, Kansas City recorded five sacks, 10 QB hits, and six tackles for a loss. It also defended four passes. 

Chicago also placed rookie center Doug Kramer on the IR, which is a big loss as he played a team-high 73% of the snaps last week.

Justin Fields was 4 for 7 for 48 yards vs. the Chiefs and didn’t move the offense well. He might see the same workload Thursday but I wouldn't be surprised if his snaps were limited, thanks to the lack of rest between games. 

Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said following the Bears opener, “Fields is not where he needs to be.” He also added that the QB has to clean up his footwork, which showed vs. the Chiefs, as he averaged 3.4 seconds in time to throw, which is on the slow side for an NFL starter. 

The offensive line issues and a lack of receiver talent should stall this offense for the majority of the game even when Trevor Siemian and Nate Peterman come in.

Head coach Matt Eberflus has said starters will play just six to 10 snaps Thursday, as the team had a quick turnaround from their Saturday game and had just two practices between the matches. 

The starters that Lock was playing with on Tuesday have not tested positive but it is something bettors should be looking out for late on Wednesday and early Thursday. 

The Seahawks opened as strong -3.5 favorites and moved as long as -5.5 before the Lock news. Even without him, I’m leaning on the home side here but the potential for more COVID absences is keeping my money in my pocket.

PredictionSeahawks -3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The Bears gave up a ton of pressure in the opener and with more injuries to an inexperienced O-line that’s trying out players in different positions, it’s going to be tough for the Bears to sustain long drives.

Soldier Field didn’t help last week, but this first-string offense gained 78 yards on three possessions (three punts) and was constantly beat at the line of scrimmage.

Defensively, the Bears held their own — especially the reserves, who pitched a second-half shutout last week — as the Chiefs gained just 205 total yards.

If the later minutes of this game are being played by the same twos and threes for the Chicago defense vs. Jacob Eason under center for the Hawks, I’m expecting points to dry up quickly.

Seattle's defense allowed 409 total yards to the Steelers last week but a lot of that was poor tackling from a first-string secondary that was starting two rookies seeing their first ever NFL action. Things should look a little tighter Thursday with Pete Carroll stressing the mistakes this week at practice.

The Seahawks' offensive line also projects as one of the worst units in football and although they were tight a week ago, a Chicago defense that had four sacks and seven TFLs vs. the Chiefs could find themselves in the backfield. 

With the Bears “giving up sack after sack” at practice on Monday and neither projected starter looking good with the ones in the preseason opener, I’m happy to throw down on this Under as recency bias might have the market a little high on Overs following Week 1. 

Ultimately, bettors are getting the same opening total of 39.5 that was set with Lock expecting to see two quarters. Now with him out, the Seahawks might be going to a three-QB rotation where two of those QBs didn’t play last week.

PredictionUnder 39.5 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

In a game that projected to have Lock play 30 minutes and opened with a total of 39.5, getting the Under at 39.5 without Lock seems like the move here on Thursday Night Football.

Both teams are on a short turnaround and the Bears have had just two practices since their Saturday game. Neither team has committed to playing its Week 1 starters for more than a handful of snaps.

Lock working with the ones on Monday leaves the door open for some more positive COVID tests with the Seattle starters in the coming hours. 

Neither projected starter moved the ball well last week, as Geno Smith had three punts and a field goal before scoring during a two-minute drive, and Justin Fields was slow to get the ball out, took two sacks, and was under pressure by a porous O-line that lost its center. 

PickUnder 39.5 (-110 at bet365)

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