Week 10 is here, and the touchdown board is loaded. We’re sitting at +16 units on the season, and this week’s slate stretches all the way to Berlin, where the Sunday morning kickoff gets the action started early.
From overseas spots to late-night showdowns, there’s value across the board — and the Week 10 TD parlay might be the best one yet. Let’s dive into my NFL touchdown props and NFL picks and keep the heater rolling.
Best Week 10 TD props
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 Falcons vs  Colts |
Pierce +260 |
 Ravens vs  Vikings |
Likely +325 |
 Patriots vs  Buccaneers |
T. Johnson +300 |
 Jaguars vs  Texans |
Marks +190 |
 Browns vs  Jets |
Njoku +280 |
 Saints vs  Panthers |
McMillan+190 |
 Giants vs  Bears |
Singletary +275 |
 Bills vs  Dolphins |
Allen -110 |
 Cardinals vs  Seahawks |
McBride +155 |
 Rams vs  49ers |
Williams +100 |
 Lions vs  Commanders |
TeSlaa +500 |
 Steelers vs  Chargers |
Gadsden +200 |
 Eagles vs  Packers |
Hurts +130 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Falcons vs Colts TD pick:
Alec Pierce (+260 at DraftKings) A+
Daniel Jones had a setback last week, but Alec Pierce didn’t — he went for 115 yards on six catches. Pierce played more snaps than Michael Pittman and is averaging 3.4 catches for 71.6 yards this year, though his lack of touchdowns has kept his price low in Week 10.
His production is way up from last season, and with his current volume, finding the end zone feels like a matter of time. I’d play Pierce to +220, and Josh Downs at +300 or better is also worth a look in Germany this Sunday morning. If the Dolphins can hang 34 on the Falcons, the Colts should have no trouble moving the ball.
Ravens vs Vikings
Isaiah Likely (+325 at DraftKings) A
I’m taking Isaiah Likely at +325 over Mark Andrews at +175, and the price is a big part of it, but not everything. Likely played more snaps and saw more targets and receptions last week, while Andrews found the end zone twice — driving up his odds this week.
All three Baltimore tight ends saw red-zone looks, and with an indoor matchup against a top-five matchup versus the position, this is a solid spot to target for a Week 10 touchdown. I’d play it down to +290.
Patriots vs Buccaneers
Tez Johnson (+300 at DraftKings) A-
The Bucs are coming off the bye, but they might not be getting bodies back. Bucky Irving is still not taking contact midway through the week, and Chris Godwin was not at practice on Wednesday, with his leg issue keeping him off the field.
It might be a great time to jump early on Tez Johnson, who would be the No. 3 even if Godwin came back. The rookie led the Bucs in receptions and yards back in Week 8, where he closed at +250 for a TD. He was +700 the week before that and scored vs. Detroit and cashed a +350 TD prop in Week 6.
The Patriots might also be without elite corner Christian Gonzalez, who exited in Week 9 with a head injury. I'd buy this to +275 now and to +220 if Godwin is out.
Jaguars vs Texans
Woody Marks (+190 at DraftKings) B-
Nick Chubb missed practice on Thursday, which is bad news for him but great news for rookie Woody Marks. If Chubb sits, Marks could step into a full RB1 workload at home in the dome, with Davis Mills starting in place of CJ Stroud.
This opened around +300 and could close near +140 if Chubb is ruled out. It’s not the easiest matchup for the offense, but opportunity outweighs everything here. Dare Ogunbowale profiles more as a pass-catching option and shouldn’t cut into early-down or red-zone carries. The only concern is the injury uncertainty with Chubb.
Browns vs Jets
David Njoku (+280 at DraftKings) B+
Browns OC Tommy Rees will handle play-calling duties this weekend, and that could mean more involvement for one of the team’s best pass-catchers. David Njoku thrived under Rees last year when he was the tight ends coach and pass-game specialist, and he’s in a good spot again Sunday against a weak defense in tough conditions.
Njoku leads all Cleveland tight ends in red-zone targets since Week 5 with six, catching four for two touchdowns. I’m playing this at +250.
Saints vs Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan (+190 at DraftKings) B
Is the Panthers’ passing attack elite? No. But getting a WR1 with a 26% target share and 43% air-yard share at +190 for a touchdown in a great matchup is great value.
It might be the Rico Dowdle show in Carolina, but rookie Tetairoa McMillan is a bit long for a TD this week. Bryce Young is coming off a shaky performance in a game the Panthers still won as big underdogs against the Packers, and the Saints aren't Green Bay. With defenses likely keying on Dowdle, McMillan could benefit from softer coverage, especially as Carolina controls more possession with Tyler Shough’s favorite target, Rashid Shaheed, now in Seattle.
Only six receivers in the league have more receptions of 10-plus yards than McMillan, and his 10 red-zone targets rank eighth among wideouts. I’d play this down to +165.
Giants vs Bears
Devin Singletary ( +275 at DraftKings) A
The weather looks rough, but Devin Singletary’s touchdown price at +275 makes things a bit brighter. Last week, Singletary led the backfield in snaps, routes, carries, and red-zone work. Despite that, his TD odds are longer than Tyrone Tracy’s at +155 in a game that should feature plenty of running with heavy wind and rain or snow.
The weather knocks this play down slightly, but with the Bears thin at receiver, Singletary is at worst the 1B to Tracy’s 1A in a favorable rushing matchup where the Giants could be playing with a neutral game script.
Bills vs Dolphins
Josh Allen (-110 at DraftKings) B+
Cardinals vs Seahawks
Trey McBride (+155 at DraftKings) B+
As long as Jacoby Brissett is under center, Trey McBride should keep producing.
He’s seen 11 red-zone targets over three games with Brissett, converting four of them into touchdowns — already doubling his total from all of 2024. McBride has scored in every game Brissett has started and leads all tight ends in red-zone looks since Week 6, even after missing Week 8.
His 33 targets since Week 6 rank tied for eighth in all of football, with six of the seven guys ahead of him playing an extra game.
I wouldn’t play it much lower than +155, but I’m in on McBride to score in his fourth straight game at +140 or better.
Rams vs 49ers
Kyren Williams (+100 at DraftKings) A+
I want exposure to the Rams’ run game this week with the 49ers’ defense falling apart. The D-line just lost first-round rookie Mykel Williams to an ACL tear, and three starters up front are already out. On top of that, two linebackers are questionable, and Fred Warner remains sidelined.
This sets up as a great matchup for Kyren Williams, and this is the best TD price we’ve seen on him all year. He was -185 last week and played 81% of the first-half snaps. There’s a reason Blake Corum sits at +425. Plus, Puka Nakua is banged up and limited with a rib injury, which could shift more touches toward the backfield.
Lions vs Commanders
Isaac TeSlaa (+500 at DraftKings) B
Lions OC John Morton said Thursday that rookie Isaac TeSlaa will “see the field more moving forward” and plans to get him more involved this week against Washington. Morton added that the staff is “very pleased with his development” and plans to mix him in by giving other receivers a breather in Week 10.
It could just be coach-speak, but getting any piece of this offense at +500 or better with a defined role is rare. I’ll back Morton’s word and take a shot on the rookie, who’s already flashed his upside and draws a favorable matchup.
More Covers NFL Week 10 touchdown scorer predictions
- NFL TD props: The best touchdown scorer bets
- NFL first touchdown scorer predictions
- Rams vs. 49ers anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Steelers vs. Chargers anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Steelers vs Chargers
Oronde Gadsden (+200 at DraftKings) A
I expected this price to be much shorter given the matchup, which is one of the best spots a tight end can draw. The Steelers are allowing 6.2 catches, 73 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the position, which sets up nicely for the rookie who has 24 catches for 377 yards and two touchdowns over his last four games.
He closed at +165 and +185 in his last two outings, and I’d play this down to +165.
The Chargers are one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league, and the indoor setting is a clear upgrade from being in Pittsburgh. With injuries on the offensive line, Oronde Gadsden’s shorter routes could keep him more involved than the downfield options.
Eagles vs Packers
Jalen Hurts (+130 at DraftKings) A+
Shoutout to Covers’ Jason Logan for putting this TD angle on my radar for Monday night. Saquon Barkley is dealing with a groin injury, and the Tush Push might be the best way to close out Week 10.
Back on May 21 at the league’s spring meetings, Packers CEO Mark Murphy called the Tush Push “bad for the game” and said it “involves no skill.” The proposal to ban it actually came from Green Bay.
Jalen Hurts might take that personally — and could find the end zone multiple times Monday night.
Week 10 anytime touchdown parlay
Rico Dowdle TD
Josh Allen TD
Kyren Williams TD
Jalen Hurts TD
Two high-end RBs and two scoring QBs for Week 10, and I'm turning that $69 into four figures. I'm showing some patience with adding the MNF game to the parlay, but that's how much I'm sold on Hurts this week. Allen has to keep winning, Dowdle is the man in Carolina, and the Williams price is too good to be true vs. a gutted defense
My weekly NFL TD props column is +16.834 units on the season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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