Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets and a TD Parlay for Week 1

Week 1 is here, and it’s the perfect time to target NFL touchdown props before roles settle and markets adjust.

I’ve broken down usage trends and game scripts to uncover the best anytime touchdown bets that need to be included in your NFL picks for Week 1. Be sure to check our first touchdown scorer picks for more.

Best Week 1 TD props

Matchup	TD Pick
Chiefs vs Chargers	Worthy +140
Cardinals vs Saints	Kamara -105
Cardinals vs Saints	McBride +200
Buccaneers vs Falcons	Penix Jr. +750
Giants vs Commanders	Singletary +750
Raiders vs Patriots	Jeanty -120
Bengals vs Browns	Jeudy +200
Steelers vs Jets	Allen +250
Panthers vs Jaguars	McMillan +170
Dolphins vs Colts	Gordon +255
Titans vs Broncos	Mims +250
49ers vs Seahawks	McCaffrey -150
Lions vs Packers	Golden +215
Texans vs Rams	Pierce +330
Ravens vs Bills	Jackson +180
Vikings vs Bears	Loveland +400

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on 9-5-2025.

All touchdown picks operate on a star rating, with five stars representing the most confidence in a play and three stars operating as more of a lean.

Chiefs vs Chargers 

Xavier Worthy (+130 at DraftKings) 5⭐

Xavier Worthy could be used creatively — including in the run game — and actually had more rushing TDs last year than both Rico Dowdle and Travis Etienne. With Rashee Rice out, Worthy likely becomes the focal point of a pass-heavy offense that THE BLITZ projects to lead the league in pass rate in Week 1.

Cardinals vs Saints

Alvin Kamara (-105 at DraftKings) 4⭐

Indoor games always get my attention for touchdown props — even when it’s the Cardinals vs. Spencer Rattler and the Saints.

Alvin Kamara is my favorite look in this game for a poor Saints offense at -105. He got 100% of the Saints’ inside-the-5 carries last year, and even with Kellen Moore in town, I doubt they get too creative with Rattler under center.

Trey McBride (+200 at DraftKings) 4⭐

On the Cardinals' side, Trey McBride at +200 is a strong value. He led all tight ends in red-zone targets inside the 10 last season, and it’s hard to see him waiting until Week 17 again for his first TD.

Buccaneers vs Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. (+750 at DraftKings) 5⭐

Another indoor game, another spot where both starting RBs are priced too short for my liking — Bijan Robinson (-175) and Bucky Irving (-140) are easy passes. The best value in the RB touchdown market is Sean Tucker at +600.

That said, my favorite play in this game is Michael Penix Jr. anytime TD at +750 — a full-unit bet for me.

This is a young, athletic QB in an offense that can move the ball indoors. He’s priced more like Aaron Rodgers (+1200) than other second-year QBs like Drake Maye or Bo Nix (both around +350), and that’s a misprice.

Penix didn’t run a ton at Washington — largely because he had three NFL-caliber WRs — but in three starts last year, he logged seven carries and a rushing TD.

Against a tough Bucs defense, I expect some improvisation, and Penix has the tools to punch one in near the goal line. I’d cap this closer to +550, in Bryce Young territory. At +750, it’s a bet I’ll take every time.

Giants vs Commanders

Devin Singletary (+750 at DraftKings) 3⭐

Let’s pump the brakes on Cam Skattebo in Week 1. The rookie didn’t debut until Week 3 of the preseason after missing significant time and opens behind Devin Singletary on the depth chart — though that may be more about veteran preference than talent.

Still, one key preseason moment stands out: Tyrone Tracy failed to punch it in from the one-yard line, and it was Singletary who subbed in and converted. That’s meaningful.

Singletary could have his biggest role early, and with checkdown specialist Russell Wilson under center, he offers sneaky value at +750 for an anytime TD.

Even five to seven touches, or any red-zone usage, would make that price live. It’s a lean, but Week 1 might be the perfect spot — especially against a Washington defense that gave up 25 points per game last year. I'll take it for a half-unit to +625/+650.

Raiders vs Patriots

Ashton Jeanty (-120 at DraftKings) 5⭐

I’m all in on the Patriots hype this year, but Ashton Jeanty’s TD price might be the lowest we see all season.

The Raiders rookie is currently -120 at DraftKings to score, with some books already down to -170. If he gets the lion’s share of touches and red-zone work — a Kyren Williams-type role — this number could regularly close in the -150 to -180 range going forward.

Pete Carroll has a track record of riding bell-cow backs, and Jeanty checks every box: three-down skillset, elite game speed, and a strong build at 5-foot-11, 211 lbs. With Chip Kelly calling plays and Geno Smith at QB, this offense should be far more functional in 2025.

Yes, it’s a tough road matchup to open, but very few backs should be priced shorter than Jeanty in Week 1. Take the -120 while it’s still hanging.

Bengals vs Browns

Jerry Jeudy (+200 at DraftKings) 4⭐

If there’s a week to back the Browns' passing game, it’s Week 1 against a Bengals secondary that made no meaningful upgrades through free agency or the draft.

Joe Flacco is still capable of piling up volume, and as five-point home underdogs, a negative game script is likely. Looking at the touchdown market, Jerry Jeudy (+200), Cedric Tillman (+275), and David Njoku (+230) are all in play, but Jeudy stands out as the clear value.

In his final 10 games last season—with Deshaun Watson "pulled" and Amari Cooper gone—Jeudy averaged 96.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. He’s comfortably a tier above Tillman in terms of talent and opportunity.

The market is already moving, with Jeudy as short as +150 at some books. If you can find +180 or better, it's worth a play. This might be the only week you’ll want exposure to a Browns WR.

Steelers vs Jets

Braelon Allen (+250 at DraftKings) 5⭐

I’m buying into the Braelon Allen buzz in New York — and so are touchdown bettors. His price has moved from +280 to +250 at DraftKings over the past week.

Allen profiles as the bigger, more physical back, and with a new quarterback and HC/OC in town, Aaron Glenn has no loyalty to Breece Hall.

Hall is the better pass-catcher, but Allen could take over goal-line duties. Glenn has also hinted at a 1A/1B backfield split, which makes Allen at a price 80 points longer than Hall a value play.

It’s the lowest total on the Week 1 slate — so scoring might be limited — but Allen is the better short-yardage runner behind what should be an improved offensive line. If you can get Allen at +200 or better, it’s worth the play.

Panthers vs Jaguars

Tetairoa McMillan (+170 at DraftKings) 4⭐

Tetairoa McMillan enters Week 1 as the clear No. 1 receiver in Carolina and draws a great matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranked 31st in EPA per pass allowed on deep throws last season.

With Jalen Coker out and Adam Thielen moved out of the way, the No. 8 overall pick steps into a featured role — and possibly the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation — with few QBs in contention.

At 6-foot-4, McMillan posted over 2,700 receiving yards in his final two college seasons and brings the rare blend of red-zone size and deep-threat speed. He’s a true unicorn at the position, and at +170 for a touchdown in a game with shootout potential, he’s my favorite TD bet on the board.

I’d play this down to +150 or +155.

Dolphins vs Colts

Ollie Gordon (+255 at DraftKings) 5⭐

This might be my favorite pick for the highest-scoring game of the week at 10/1, and I’m targeting the Miami backfield for touchdown value — indoors, against a soft Colts run defense.

Rookie Ollie Gordon’s stock has dipped slightly with DeVon Achane expected to play, but Achane started the week limited with a calf issue.

No. 3 back Jaylen Wright is likely out, which puts Gordon — a 6-foot-1, 225-pound bruiser — in line for potential goal-line work in a game where Miami could easily score 28 or more.

As always, price is everything in TD betting. Gordon is currently +255 to score, making this one of my favorite touchdown plays in Week 1. Only three teams allowed more rushing TDs per game at home last season than the Colts. I’d buy this down to +180.

Titans vs Broncos

Marvin Mims (+250 at DraftKings) 3⭐

Marvin Mims ended last season on a tear, scoring six touchdowns over the final seven regular-season games.

He opens 2025 as the Broncos' No. 2 receiver behind Courtland Sutton and gets a favorable home matchup against a Titans secondary that struggled at corner last year — especially with L’Jarius Sneed falling off significantly.

Sutton remains Bo Nix’s go-to target, and while Mims did deal with a groin injury in camp, he returned to practice Wednesday and appears past the issue. Troy Franklin is the clear WR3, so Mims should see a solid snap share in two-wide sets.

There’s also potential for the Titans to struggle with Denver’s altitude early in the season, and Mims has the speed to get behind this defense for a splash play.

Some books have Mims as short as +190 — I’m passing at that number. For a WR2, I want +220 or better. For comparison, I rarely take WR1s at anything shorter than +150 to +160.

49ers vs Seahawks

Christian McCaffrey (-150 at DraftKings) 4⭐

Let’s be honest, -150 isn’t a bad price for a Christian McCaffrey touchdown if he’s truly back to full health. When he was rolling over the last two seasons, his anytime TD odds routinely closed shorter than -200.

Kyle Shanahan will likely give CMC a full workload to prove he's all the way back, and that includes goal-line touches. He remains the focal point of this offense in scoring position.

Seattle could come out flat offensively with Sam Darnold under center, which gives added value to the 49ers in first TD markets as well. The Seahawks were stronger against the pass than the run last season, which only helps McCaffrey’s case.

It’s a full-unit play for me at -150 — and I’d consider first TD at a decent number, too.

Lions vs Packers

Matthew Golden (+215 at DraftKings) 5⭐

I’m high on Matthew Golden this year, and getting him at better than +200 for a TD in an indoor matchup against the Lions feels like a gift.

He’ll likely see coverage from Terrion Arnold, who graded out as the 105th of 116 cornerbacks in coverage last season. Golden’s elite speed and expected WR1 role in Green Bay’s passing attack make this a prime spot; especially with Jayden Reed missing practice Wednesday, Dontayvion Wicks limited, and Romeo Doubs not a true alpha.

Jordan Love isn’t shy about pushing the ball downfield, and the dome only boosts the outlook. Golden should be priced closer to +150 to +170 — certainly not longer than Tucker Kraft. This is a strong value for a high-upside play.

Texans vs Rams

Dameon Pierce (+330 at DraftKings) 3⭐

I’m not looking to fade this Houston secondary, and with Joe Mixon out and Nick Chubb stepping in, there could be some value in Dameon Pierce picking up the tough yards in what could be a low-scoring game — even indoors.

Pierce enters as the No. 2 back, but don’t be surprised if the workload is closer to a 50/50 split. Chubb is coming off a rough stretch — just 3.3 yards per carry over eight games last year, plus major injuries to his ACL, MCL, meniscus, and a broken foot over the last few seasons.

Pierce is currently priced at +330 to score, while Chubb sits at +195. That gap doesn’t reflect what could be an even backfield. In a potentially low-scoring matchup, I’ll gladly take a shot on the longer number.

Ravens vs Bills

Lamar Jackson (+180 at DraftKings) 5⭐

Lamar Jackson heads into Orchard Park looking to silence the Buffalo crowd — and I don’t see an 80-point gap in TD odds between him and Josh Allen.

The Ravens are fully capable of moving the ball, while the Bills could struggle early with a thin group of pass-catchers.

Derrick Henry will likely get most of the red-zone carries, but this is a classic spot for Lamar to keep it and beat the defense to the edge, especially if Buffalo overcommits to stopping the run.

Their secondary is not great outside of Christian Benford, making things even more difficult for Sean McDermott's defense to contain this offense.

In a prime-time MVP vs. MVP matchup, I expect Lamar to show up big. The Ravens could put up 25+ points here. In a high-profile shootout, Lamar is going to get his.

Vikings vs Bears

Colston Loveland (+400 at DraftKings) 4⭐

Ben Johnson’s offense will need to get creative against Brian Flores’ aggressive defense on Monday night — but the track record against Minnesota is encouraging.

Caleb Williams threw for 531 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs vs. the Vikings last year, and Jared Goff lit them up in 2024, completing 49 of 58 passes over two games with 62 total points.

Enter Colston Loveland, the No. 10 overall pick in this year’s draft.

He may not play a full snap share right away, but with Minnesota blitzing on 62% of plays and Johnson known for scheming up tight ends, Loveland could find himself with a few easy looks. At 6-foot-6, he’s a legit red-zone threat and could rival Brock Bowers' rookie numbers if usage picks up.

I like DJ Moore at +190, but Loveland at +400 is tough to ignore — especially with hopes Cole Kmet is used more in pass protection.

Week 1 anytime touchdown parlay

Alvin Kamara

Christian McCaffrey

Chase Brown

Lamar Jackson

+1398 at DraftKings

Let's go running-back heavy here, but also add that Lamar Jackson TD on Sunday Night to beef it up. Alvin Kamara could get 80% of the RB workload, including everything in tight.

CMC is going to prove doubters wrong and -150 is a great price. Chase Brown might have the best matchup, and -155 is a decent price.

Finally, the MVP battle has LJ finding paydirt and quieting the Buffalo crowd. Don't forget to add the DK NFL Sunday Ghost Leg Parlay.

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