Sixty minutes into the 2026 NFL season, sports fans already think they have this sport figured out. Bettors are dumping elite profiles over one fluky game script and aggressively chasing Week 1 box scores.
That overreaction is where the Anytime TD Scorer markets get sloppy. When public money panics over early noise, underlying structural volume, like designed red-zone leverage, gets severely discounted.
We’re using the Covers Anytime TD Value Index and fading the overreaction. Here are the Best NFL Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for NFL Week 2.
The best anytime TD scorer predictions this week
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
 Lamar Jackson (vs.  ) |
QB | 34% | 72 |
 Demarcus Robinson (vs.  ) |
WR | 21% | 72 |
| George Kittle (vs. ) |
TE | 34% | 71 |
 Colby Parkinson (vs.  ) |
TE | 20% | 69 |
| Chris Moore (vs. ) |
WR | 7% | 68 |
| Justice Hill (vs. ) |
RB | 16% | 68 |
 Jake Ferguson (vs.  ) |
TE | 25% | 68 |
 Makai Lemon (vs.  ) |
WR | 16% | 68 |
| Kaelon Black (vs. ) |
RB | 31% | 68 |
| Luke Farrell (vs. ) |
TE | 11% | 68 |
| Mike Evans (vs. ) |
WR | 40% | 68 |
| Durham Smythe (vs. ) |
TE | 10% | 66 |
| Mark Andrews (vs. ) |
TE | 42% | 66 |
 Emmett Johnson (vs.  ) |
RB | 18% | 66 |
| Jalen Hurts (vs. ) |
QB | 39% | 66 |
| Elijah Sarratt (vs. ) |
WR | TBC | 64 |
 Keon Coleman (vs.  ) |
WR | NO | 64 |
| Khalil Shakir (vs. ) |
WR | NO | 64 |
| Javonte Williams (vs. ) |
RB | 61% | 64 |
| Travis Kelce (vs. ) |
TE | 30% | 64 |
 Michael Mayer (vs.  ) |
TE | 26% | 64 |
| Christian McCaffrey (vs. ) |
RB | 67% | 64 |
| Jacob Cowing (vs. ) |
WR | 7% | 64 |
| Antonio Williams (vs. ) |
WR | 17% | 64 |
| LaJohntay Wester (vs. ) |
WR | 4% | 63 |
Accurate as of September 18. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps
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The best Week 2 anytime TD predictions
Lamar Jackson | QB 34%
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The Market Illusion: “Derrick Henry controls Baltimore’s goal-line opportunities, leaving Jackson dependent on an unpredictable scramble or designed keeper at a short +150 price.”
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The Structural Reality: Jackson immediately confirmed that his rushing touchdown path remains active. In Week 1, he carried seven times for 40 yards and a touchdown while adding 324 passing yards in Baltimore’s 41-point performance. Henry scored three times, but that did not prevent Jackson from receiving and converting his own rushing opportunity.
The 2025 baseline was less spectacular but still meaningful: Jackson recorded 12 red-zone carries and scored twice. His mobility also creates unscripted opportunities that ordinary quarterback rushing totals do not fully capture. Baltimore is favored by approximately 8.5 points in a game carrying a total around 47.5, implying roughly 28 team points. New Orleans allowed touchdowns on 53.2% of opposing red-zone trips in 2025 and yielded 30 points in Week 1.
The +150 price represents a 40.0% implied probability. That is not cheap, especially with Henry owning the conventional goal-line role, but Jackson can score through designed runs, option keepers, and broken-pocket plays. His multiple touchdown pathways and Baltimore’s projected scoring volume justify the strong ranking.
George Kittle | TE 33%
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The Market Illusion: “Kittle’s reduced Week 1 workload following his Achilles recovery, combined with the additions of Mike Evans and other receiving competition, makes +175 too short.”
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The Structural Reality: Kittle’s 2025 touchdown role was highly concentrated. He caught 11 of 12 red-zone targets for six touchdowns. Inside the 10, he converted four of five targets and scored three times. Those are repeatable opportunity indicators even if the conversion rate itself regresses.
Week 1 urged some caution. Kittle played only 30 snaps compared with Luke Farrell’s 46 and finished with two catches for 12 yards. That looks more like managed deployment after returning from an Achilles injury than his established full workload, and he was not listed with a Week 2 injury designation. The San Francisco 49ers nevertheless scored 27 points and enters Week 2 with one of the slate’s highest implied totals.
At +175, Kittle must score approximately 36.4% of the time. The crowded offense keeps that from being an exceptional price, but his historical inside-the-10 role and San Francisco’s projected 28.5–30 points provide a credible edge if his playing time moves back toward normal.
Colby Parkinson | TE 20%
- The Market Illusion: “One reception for six yards confirms that the prior-season touchdown breakout was temporary and that the veteran tight end rotation will erase his scoring role.”
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The Structural Reality: Parkinson’s Week 1 production concealed highly favorable deployment. He played 47 offensive snaps, representing 77% of the Rams’ plays, while Tyler Higbee played only 12. That established Parkinson as the clear lead tight end even though the passing game struggled and Matthew Stafford threw for only 155 yards.
His 2025 role was legitimately touchdown-oriented. Parkinson led the Rams with 15 red-zone receptions and 118 red-zone yards. His 22 targets inside the 20 trailed only Davante Adams on the team, and six of his eight receiving touchdowns came from the red zone.
The Los Angeles Rams are favored by approximately 7.5 points with a 48.5 total, implying around 28 team points. The Giants held Dallas to 244 yards in Week 1, but the Cowboys still produced three offensive touchdowns, including two through the running back position.
The opportunity profile supports the nice 69 index score: dominant tight end deployment, a strong prior red-zone role, and a healthy team total.
Makai Lemon | WR 16%
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The Market Illusion: “A rookie coming off three catches for minus-five yards has not demonstrated an NFL scoring role, even at a seemingly generous +500.”
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The Structural Reality: The debut stat line was ugly, but the participation was considerably better. Lemon played 35 of Philadelphia’s 55 offensive snaps, a 63.6% share, and drew four targets. Two were at or behind the line of scrimmage, explaining why three receptions produced minus-five yards. This was inefficient usage, not an absence of involvement.
Lemon also entered the league with genuine scoring production: 79 receptions, 1,156 yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns during his final USC season, plus two rushing scores. The Eagles selected him in the first round, which supports continued designed involvement despite the poor debut.
Philadelphia’s approximate 23.25 implied team total is modest, and Lemon has not yet earned a documented NFL red-zone role. The attraction is the 16.7% probability embedded in +500: a regular receiver in an efficient offense does not need elite goal-line usage to clear that threshold. This remains a projection-driven value play, with considerably more uncertainty than the veteran options above him.
Antonio Williams | WR 17%
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The Market Illusion: “Williams played only 37% of Washington’s offensive snaps, so his Week 1 touchdown was rookie variance rather than a sustainable role.”
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The Structural Reality: Williams caught all four of his targets for a team-leading 64 receiving yards in his debut. His final reception was a one-yard touchdown, giving him immediate evidence of high-leverage usage. He produced those numbers on only 26 snaps, suggesting Washington actively featured him when he was on the field rather than treating him as a low-priority reserve.
The matchup reinforces the price case. Dallas allowed touchdowns on 44 of 66 opposing red-zone trips in 2025, a 66.7% rate, and allowed touchdowns on every opposing red-zone trip in its 2026 opener. The game total is approximately 50.5, leaving Washington with an implied total near 23 points despite being the underdog.
At +450, the required probability is only 18.2%. Williams’ snap share introduces substantial volatility, but four targets and a goal-line touchdown on 26 snaps suggest a deliberately designed role. The value depends on that role expanding or at least retaining its Week 1 efficiency.
Javonte Williams | RB 61%
- The Market Illusion: “The two-touchdown opener was an unsustainable spike, and a 60% probability overreacts to one strong game.”
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The Structural Reality: Williams’ Week 1 production was supported by workload. He played 41 offensive snaps while primary backup Emari Demercado played only five. Williams handled 12 carries, caught all five of his targets, and scored both rushing and receiving touchdowns. This was a backfield monopoly with multiple scoring pathways rather than two touchdowns on peripheral usage.
The role also continues what Dallas established in 2025. Williams produced 12 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns last season, demonstrating that the coaching staff already trusted him as both a goal-line runner and passing-game option. His Week 1 receiving touchdown from 17 yards reinforces that he does not require a carry from the one to score.
Dallas is favored by approximately 3.5 points in a game totaled around 50.5, implying roughly 27 Dallas Cowboys points. Washington allowed 24 points to Philadelphia in Week 1 and surrendered touchdowns on approximately two-thirds of opposing red-zone trips last season.
The 60% price is demanding. Multiple-touchdown games inflate seasonal touchdown totals without necessarily supporting a score in 60% of individual games. Williams has one of the strongest roles on the slate, but at this probability he is closer to fairly priced than a major bargain.
Travis Kelce | TE 32%
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The Market Illusion: “Kelce’s touchdown production is declining, and Kansas City’s new rushing strength means +200 is paying for his name rather than his current role.”
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The Structural Reality: Kelce’s 2025 red-zone volume remained meaningful: 11 targets, eight receptions, and three touchdowns. Seven of those targets came inside the 10, where he caught four and scored three times. That is still a defined close-range role, even if it is less dominant than during his statistical peak in 2022.
In Week 1, Kelce caught three passes for 71 yards, including a 59-yard gain, while Kansas City scored 31 points. The lack of a touchdown should not obscure the fact that he remained capable of generating explosive yardage and that Patrick Mahomes produced three total scores. Kansas City is favored by approximately 6.5 points with a 48.5 total, implying about 27.5 team points.
Indianapolis allowed a respectable 53.0% red-zone touchdown rate in 2025, so this is not the best matchup in this week’s schedule. At +200, Kelce needs to score 33.3% of the time. The price is attractive because the role remains structurally sound, but the presence of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Kenneth Walker, and Mahomes’s own rushing ability limits the upside
Christian McCaffrey | RB 67%
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The Market Illusion: “Kaelon Black’s Week 1 workload signals a genuine committee, making a 69.2% touchdown probability impossible to justify.”
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The Structural Reality: McCaffrey’s 2025 touchdown opportunity was overwhelming. He handled 71 red-zone carries, accounting for 76.3% of San Francisco’s rushing attempts in that area, and scored 10 times. He received 37 carries inside the 10 and 18 inside the five, scoring nine and eight touchdowns respectively. He also finished the season with seven receiving touchdowns.
Week 1 introduced a legitimate warning. McCaffrey played 36 snaps and handled 10 carries for 68 yards plus five receptions for 20 yards, while Black received 14 carries. McCaffrey also didn’t record a single carry inside the five. The workload was still valuable, but it was not the monopoly expected based on his past usage.
San Francisco’s massive favorite status and implied total approaching 30 points give McCaffrey the strongest raw touchdown outlook in this group. The problem is the price: -225 requires him to score approximately 69.2% of the time. His 64 index score is therefore almost entirely role- and environment-driven, as reflected by the maximum Redzone & Goalline Usage score combined with one of the lowest overall Market Value Gaps among starting running backs in Week 2.
He is the most likely scorer listed here, but not the best price.
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Week 2 anytime touchdown props to avoid
Every week, the Covers Anytime Touchdown value index flags the five worst Anytime Touchdown propositions on the board. We aren't talking about the longest odds or the lowest raw probabilities.
We are talking about toxic ROI. These are the spots where the public narrative has inflated the price so severely that the bet is mathematically dead on arrival.
If you are looking for a Cleveland Browns Quarterback’s contract level of return on investment: these are your picks.
| Player | Position | Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
 KC Concepcion (vs.  ) |
WR | TBC | 34 |
| Carnell Tate (vs. ) |
WR | 21% | 33 |
| Daniel Bellinger (vs. ) |
TE | 5% | 33 |
| Daniel Jones (vs. ) |
QB | 14% | 29 |
| Cam Ward (vs. ) |
QB | 10% | 27 |
| Malik Willis (vs. ) |
QB | 23% | 20 |
NFL Week 2 best anytime touchdown bets by position
If you are strictly a running back investor, or you only play tight end markets: we have you covered. The index slices the board by position, giving you the top ten clearest value plays across every skill group, ensuring you aren't just betting blindly into a crowded market.
Top 10 quarterback TD props for Week 2
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson (vs. ) |
34% | 72 | Designed rushing remains proven scoring weapon. |
| Jalen Hurts (vs. ) |
39% | 66 | Elite rushing history survives scoreless opener. |
| Brock Purdy (vs. ) |
23% | 58 | Scramble volume offers secondary scoring path. |
| Jayden Daniels (vs. ) |
31% | 58 | Designed rushing keeps ceiling intact. |
| Matthew Stafford (vs. ) |
6% | 55 | Sneak-only path remains extremely narrow. |
| Josh Allen (vs. ) |
YES | 55 | Goal-line rushing monopoly remains unmatched. |
| Jared Goff (vs. ) |
NO | 48 | No designed rushing; gadget dependent. |
| Patrick Mahomes (vs. ) |
23% | 47 | Opening-drive scramble revived rushing upside. |
| Dak Prescott (vs. ) |
15% | 46 | Passing-heavy role limits rushing equity. |
 Caleb Williams (vs.  ) |
25% | 46 | Designed rushing surged in opener. |
Top 10 running back TD props for Week 2
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justice Hill (vs. ) |
16% | 68 | Near-even snaps; starter owns touchdowns. |
| Kaelon Black (vs. ) |
31% | 68 | Led backfield carries in debut. |
| Emmett Johnson (vs. ) |
17% | 66 | Changeup role includes explosive receiving. |
| Javonte Williams (vs. ) |
61% | 64 | Backfield monopoly produced dual scores. |
| Christian McCaffrey (vs. ) |
66% | 64 | Elite goal-line role; workload now shared. |
| Derrick Henry (vs. ) |
69% | 63 | Goal-line dominance confirmed immediately. |
| Rasheen Ali (vs. ) |
TBC | 61 | No offensive role behind established duo. |
| Kyle Monangai (vs. ) |
33% | 61 | Efficient complement retained scoring work. |
| Bucky Irving (vs. ) |
50% | 61 | Lead touches survived committee deployment. |
| Emari Demercado (vs. ) |
4% | 60 | Minimal snaps undermine attractive price. |
Top 10 wide receiver TD props for Week 2
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson (vs. ) |
21% | 72 | Expanded snaps; week 1 TD came from distance. |
| Makai Lemon (vs. ) |
16% | 68 | Regular snaps; shallow usage needs evolution. |
| Chris Moore (vs. ) |
7% | 68 | Explosive debut masks temporary elevation. |
| Mike Evans (vs. ) |
40% | 68 | Immediate goal-line deployment validates role. |
| Antonio Williams (vs. ) |
17% | 64 | Goal-line debut earned expanded consideration. |
| Elijah Sarratt (vs. ) |
TBC | 64 | Healthy scratch threatens scoring access. |
| Jacob Cowing (vs. ) |
7% | 64 | Injury-created snaps remain purely speculative. |
| Keon Coleman (vs. ) |
NO | 64 | Moderate snaps produced negligible involvement. |
| Khalil Shakir (vs. ) |
NO | 64 | Target share supports underneath touchdown path. |
| LaJohntay Wester (vs. ) |
4% | 63 | Temporary rotation faces returning competition. |
Top 10 tight end TD props for Week 2
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle (vs. ) |
28% | 71 | Managed opener obscures proven red-zone dominance. |
| Colby Parkinson (vs. ) |
20% | 69 | Dominant snaps outweigh quiet receiving debut. |
| Luke Farrell (vs. ) |
11% | 68 | Heavy snaps create discounted secondary route. |
| Jake Ferguson (vs. ) |
25% | 68 | Heavy routes obscured by drawn penalties. |
| Durham Smythe (vs. ) |
12% | 66 | Heavy blocking workload offers occasional leakage. |
| Mark Andrews (vs. ) |
42% | 66 | Primary tight-end role remains intact. |
| Michael Mayer (vs. ) |
26% | 64 | Every-down usage unlocked target volume. |
| Travis Kelce (vs. ) |
32% | 64 | Explosive opener preserved scoring relevance. |
| Dawson Knox (vs. ) |
YES | 63 | Heavy snaps masked by minimal targets. |
| Dalton Kincaid (vs. ) |
YES | 63 | Breakout yardage confirms expanded route priority. |
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How we decide which week 2 NFL anytime TDs to pick
Behind the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index is a screening matrix built on cold, structural math to help make the best anytime TD scorer predictions every week.
We don't care about media hype. We don't care who went viral on Sunday.
Our system runs a multi-layered data ingest, cross-referencing live play-by-play mechanics against odds from the sharpest sportsbooks in the world. We look at dozens of hyper-specific metrics, including:
| Player red-zone touches, inside the opponent’s 20-yard line | Weekly point spread |
| Player goal-to-go touches, approximated as touches inside the 5-yard line | Implied team total, derived from the total and spread |
| Player share of the team’s red-zone touches | Best available anytime-touchdown price |
| Player share of the team’s goal-to-go touches | Number of sportsbooks offering that price |
| Player red-zone touchdowns | Implied probability |
| Player red-zone touchdown rate per red-zone touch | Median market implied probability when multiple books are supplied |
| Team red-zone trips | Number of completed games played by the player’s team |
| Team offensive red-zone touchdown percentage | Prior-season weighting, used while the current-season sample develops |
| Opponent red-zone trips faced | Current injuries, availability, workload changes, and role stability |
| Opponent red-zone touchdown percentage allowed | Player position, team, opponent, and scheduled matchup |
| Weekly game total |
This isn't a black box running on mystery algorithms. It is a highly calibrated heuristic engine. We map our proprietary scoring against the market’s implied probability to isolate the exact friction points where pricing lags behind actual on-field volume. It is a premium, data-driven edge built to find the value before the market wakes up.
The lines are already moving. The public is currently throwing money at stale narratives. Trust the math and exploit the structural friction to secure your closing line value before kickoff.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
