AFC Championship Odds: Bills Back On Top After Wild Win Over Bucs in Week 11

The Bills won a big game against the Buccaneers in Week 11, and the Chiefs fell to the Broncos in Denver. As a result, Buffalo is again the betting favorite to win the AFC Championship.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Nov 16, 2025 • 22:09 ET • 4 min read
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Bills QB Josh Allen (17) celebrates during Week 11 win vs. Bucs.

The Buffalo Bills are back on top of the AFC Championship odds after a crazy Week 11 for the conference.

The Bills were on the right side of a shootout with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, bouncing back from a bad loss at Miami in Week 10 to improve to 7-3 on the season.

That moved Buffalo from +450 to +380, and the Bills are now the frontrunners in the NFL odds to win the AFC title.

Odds to win AFC

Team FanDuel
Bills Bills +380
Colts Colts +430
Chiefs Chiefs +500
Ravens Ravens +600
Broncos Broncos +600
Patriots Patriots +700
Chargers Chargers +1600
Jaguars Jaguars +2200
Texans Texans +3000
Steelers Steelers +3500
Bengals Bengals +12500
Dolphins Dolphins +75000
Raiders Raiders +75000
Jets Jets +75000
Titans Titans +75000
Browns Browns +75000

Odds as of 11-16.

Buffalo’s victory and the Kansas City Chiefs' loss on the road to the Denver Broncos boosted the Bills and dropped the Chiefs down the futures board.

Kansas City slid from a +315 favorite to +500, with the previous third choice behind the Indianapolis Colts leapfrogging the Chiefs by moving from +450 to +425 despite being on a bye in Week 11.

With the win over the Chiefs, the Denver Broncos boosted their AFC stock. Denver has now won eight in a row and climbs from +800 to +600, which is just ahead of the New England Patriots at +700.

The Baltimore Ravens also made waves in the AFC title futures with a win over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Baltimore earned its fourth straight victory to climb the conference pecking order, but is still outside the postseason cutoff at 5-5. The Ravens went from +650 to +600 to win the conference.

All other AFC Championship contenders sit at greater than 10/1 odds, with the Los Angeles Chargers (+1600), Jacksonville Jaguars (+2200), Houston Texans (+3000), and Pittsburgh Steelers (+3500) all either currently inside the playoff picture or chasing down a wild card.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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