Apparently, everything we thought we knew about Michigan disappeared in 60 minutes.
The Wolverines needed a Hail Mary to escape Western Michigan 13-12, Oklahoma blasted UTEP 51-0, and suddenly the Sooners are laying 5.5 points in the Big House.
If your entire handicap is "51-0 good, 13-12 bad," congratulations — you successfully read two final scores.
I'm betting against the Week 1 overreaction and taking Michigan +5.5 as one of my favorite college football picks for Week 2.
Oklahoma vs Michigan live odds
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Michigan's offense was bad. Its defense wasn't.
Let's get the obvious part out of the way: Bryce Underwood was awful in Week 1, and Michigan's offense deserves every bit of criticism it's getting. But one terrible offensive performance shouldn't automatically mean the entire team is broken, especially when the Wolverines' defense spent Saturday doing everything it could to keep them alive.
Western Michigan was +3 in turnover margin, ran 67 offensive plays, and possessed the football for 40:08. That's about as ugly a game script as you can hand a defense, yet the Broncos managed just 221 total yards and settled for four field goals. Michigan didn't allow a touchdown despite having its defense on the field for two-thirds of the game.
| Western Michigan offense vs. Michigan defense | Week 1 |
|---|---|
| Points | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Total yards | 221 |
| Yards per play | 3.3 |
| Passing yards | 89 |
| Rushing yards | 132 |
| Offensive plays | 67 |
| Time of possession | 40:08 |
That's the part of Saturday everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring.
I don't need Underwood to suddenly become a superstar for Michigan to cover 5.5 points. I need him to be better than 12-for-22 for 170 yards while the defense continues to give the Wolverines a chance to hang around.
There's also something to be said for surviving a game like that. Since 2013, I found 10 teams that won on an insane walk-off play with 0:00 remaining before Michigan, and those teams went 7-3 straight up and 6-3-1 ATS in their next game.
Everyone wants to fade Michigan against Oklahoma in Week 2
— Covers Football (@Covers_Football) September 8, 2026
But is the market overreacting to Michigan's close call on Saturday night?@mc_silly3 looked at recent history and doesn't think they are an automatic fade this weekend 👀 https://t.co/bcfAxgoy4p pic.twitter.com/6hfZjYdwYH
So spare me the automatic letdown angle. A miracle win doesn't mean a team is doomed the following week. In the 10 examples I found, history has actually pointed the other way.
We've already seen Underwood vs Mateer
We also have a useful reference point because Underwood and John Mateer played this matchup last season. Michigan went to Norman and lost 24-13 despite Underwood completing just 9 of 24 passes for 142 yards. The Wolverines still outrushed Oklahoma 146-138 and entered the fourth quarter down only eight before the Sooners finally put the game away with a late field goal.
| 2025 matchup | Bryce Underwood | John Mateer |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-Att | 9-24 | 21-34 |
| Passing yards | 142 | 270 |
| Pass TD-INT | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Rushing yards | -1 | 74 |
| Rushing TD | 0 | 2 |
| Final score | Michigan 13 | Oklahoma 24 |
Now the rematch moves to Ann Arbor, and I'm being asked to lay 5.5 with Oklahoma immediately after the Sooners beat UTEP 51-0 and Michigan played about as poorly as it possibly could offensively.
That's buying Oklahoma at its most expensive and selling Michigan at its cheapest.
Maybe Oklahoma proves that Saturday really exposed Michigan. But the biggest reason I thought the Wolverines could compete in this matchup before the season — their defense — actually showed up.
I'm not throwing out an entire offseason of expectations because of 60 ugly minutes. And I'm sure as hell not buying an eight-point swing because Oklahoma beat the brakes off UTEP.
Give me Michigan +5.5 at Kalshi.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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