One week into the college football season, and there's already been major movement at the top of the Heisman Trophy odds.
But instead of targeting the new favorite as the latest addition to my Heisman Hedge Fund, I'm adding his best weapon.
The Miami duo of Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney put on a show under the Friday night lights, which shot the Hurricanes QB up the board from a 10% probability to a 17% probability of winning the Heisman; however, it's Toney who's my favorite buy ahead of Week 2.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
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After opening the season as the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, Notre Dame's CJ Carr has tumbled from 12% to 9%. He was always too large a favorite to win the award and was being propped up by the fact that the Fighting Irish sit atop the college football national championship odds.
Carr, who was unspectacular in Notre Dame's Week 1 win over Wisconsin (68.5 QBR), was the first player I sold as a Heisman contender back before Week 0. He's now neck and neck with Texas' Arch Manning, who I'm avoiding altogether at this point, especially ahead of the Longhorns' matchup with No. 1 Ohio State this week.
Miami's Darian Mensah jumped ahead of both Carr and Manning to the top of the board, surging to a 17% probability — his 7% jump was more than double any other QB. The only other player to move up more than 3% was Mensah's teammate, Malachi Toney, and he's the better Hurricane to buy this week.
Week 2 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Malachi Toney, WR |
Buy | 7% | Yes (7¢) |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Sell | 5% | No (96¢) |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Hold | 4% | Yes (purchase price: 5¢) |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Penny stock | 2% | Yes (2¢) |
Buy: Malachi Toney, WR, Miami
- Kalshi probability: 7%
- 2026 stats: 12 receptions, 234 yards, 3 TDs
- Key metric: Leads the country in combined first-down and TD receptions (12)
- Week 2 opponent: vs. Florida A&M (Thursday, Sept. 10/8 p.m. ET)
The buzz around Toney ahead of his true freshman season last year was palpable, yet he still exceeded expectations. The former three-star recruit turned in one of the greatest true freshman seasons of all time, racking up 1,700+ total yards and 13 touchdowns while leading Miami to a CFP National Championship appearance.
Though Toney was viewed as a top-five player in college football ahead of this season after leading the country in YAC (841) and first-down receptions as an 18-year-old in 2025, I'm not sure anyone anticipated him becoming the best player in the sport as a sophomore.
In Week 1 against Stanford, Toney broke the Hurricanes' record for receiving yards in a single game. To do that at a program that's produced eight first-round picks at wide receiver is insane, especially against a fellow Power Four team before even turning 19.
While Mensah was the player delivering the ball to Toney with precise accuracy (93.1% adjusted completion percentage), it was clear who the best player on the field was and who the better value is at their current prices. Toney even hit the Heisman pose several times.
Sell: Jayden Maiava, QB, USC
- Kalshi probability: 5%
- 2026 stats: 635 passing yards, 6 total TDs, 0 turnovers
- Key metric: 6.9 average depth of target
- Week 2 opponent: vs. Louisiana (Saturday, Sept. 12/11 p.m. ET)
Selling Jayden Maiava two games into a season isn't so much a criticism of his play as it is his circumstances. Maiava has picked apart a pair of Group of Six defenses to start the season (San Jose State, Fresno State), but it's inflated his Heisman price.
Sure, Lincoln Riley has a strong history of producing Heisman-winning QBs, but why is Maiava's probability now higher than several other signal callers at programs viewed as having a better shot at reaching the College Football Playoff (Josh Hoover, John Mateer, Keelon Russell)?
And while Maiava has been an efficient distributor from the pocket, he's been more of a point guard than a playmaker. The senior's average depth of target (6.9) and big-time throw rate (3.6%) both rank outside the Top 50 nationally.
That's without mentioning the fact that Maiava is working with a wildly young group of skill players. Four of USC's top six pass catchers are true freshmen, and the other two are true sophomores.
What will it look like when the Trojans start playing Big Ten contenders like Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana? USC plays those five ranked teams in a six-game span between Sept. 26 and Nov. 14.
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Hold: Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana
- Kalshi probability: 4%
- 2026 stats: 231 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 turnovers
- Key metric: Leads the country in QBR (99.1)
- Week 2 opponent: vs. Howard (Saturday, Sept. 12/noon ET)
It doesn't make much sense that Hoover's Heisman probability dropped from 5% to 4% following his first game as Indiana's QB. The TCU transfer was nearly flawless and had no qualms about pushing the ball downfield and giving his receivers opportunities to make plays.
While he took just 16 dropbacks in the 52-16 win over North Texas, Hoover was one of just three QBs in Week 1 to throw 4+ touchdowns with zero turnover-worthy plays against an FBS opponent. He was also one of only two QBs to have a better-than-10% big-time throw rate with an adjusted completion percentage of at least 85% against an FBS program.
In a Mike Shanahan offense that just produced the Heisman winner and features two potential first-round picks at wide receiver, Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh, Hoover shouldn't be priced behind 10 other players.
Hoover also had a bit of a Heisman moment in Week 1 when he was facemasked to the point he was bleeding profusely but stayed in the game and threw a touchdown.
Penny stock: Kamario Taylor, QB, Mississippi State
- Kalshi probability: 2%
- 2026 stats: 354 passing yards, 5 total TDs, 0 turnovers
- Key metric: 0% pressure-to-sack rate
- Week 2 opponent: at Minnesota (Saturday, Sept. 12/3:30 p.m. ET)
There was a lot of hype about Kamario Taylor coming out of Starkville after his two starts for Mississippi State as a freshman at the end of last season. His flashy Egg Bowl and Duke's Mayo Bowl performances foreshadowed a player with special potential.
That potential already seems to be coming to fruition based on the Bulldogs' opener against Louisiana Monroe. Taylor didn't just put up video game numbers; he made maybe the best throw of Week 1.
At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, he's built like a truck with NOS and a howitzer attached, and while hyperbole doesn't win Heismans, lifting a struggling SEC team just might. This price will rise when Taylor puts on a show on the road in a non-conference game against Minnesota in Week 2.
Although it's unrealistic for him to bring home the hardware, Taylor can put up Heisman-level numbers in Jeff Lebby's veer-and-shoot offense. That's enough to make him a worthy dark-horse contender.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
As my Heisman portfolio continues to take shape heading into Week 2, my approach remains focused on buying superstar talent, adding undervalued QBs on teams projected to reach the College Football Playoff, and selling quarterbacks who are being overvalued because of their names.
While wide receivers rarely win the Heisman, this is setting up to be the fifth time it's happened since 1987. There's not much of an argument against who the two best players in college football are right now: Jeremiah Smith (who remains my top Heisman pick) and Toney.
Those are the shining stars of my Heisman portfolio, but diversifying by having different flavors of QBs — proven star (Dante Moore), five-star breakout candidate (Russell), transfer on defending champions (Hoover) — certainly helps strengthen it.
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/7¢ |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/3¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/6¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/4¢ |
| Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/7¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/92¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/95¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/98¢ |
| Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/96¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
| Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/2¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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