West Virginia vs Baylor Picks and Predictions: Mountaineers Stumped By Baylor D

This Big 12 game features two teams coming off losses last week, with the Mountaineers looking for their first conference win of the season. Defense will be the story, which is why we're going Under on the 44.5 total in our West Virginia vs. Baylor picks.

Last Updated: Oct 8, 2021 9:57 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Christian Morgan Baylor Bears NCAAF
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The West Virginia Mountaineers are still searching for their first Big 12 win of the year and this line suggests they have a real shot at getting it when they visit the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off losses last week, with West Virginia dropping its second straight by three points.

Find out who we like in our free college football betting picks and predictions for West Virginia vs. Baylor picks on October 9.

West Virginia vs Baylor odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

West Virginia was getting a field goal at the open in this one, but the Mountaineers are now getting 2.5 points on most sites. That’s despite the fact that a large majority appears to be backing Baylor in this game. The total opened up at 44.5 and has since gone down to 44 almost everywhere. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

West Virginia vs Baylor picks

Picks made on 10/7/2021 at 10:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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West Virginia vs Baylor game info

Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Date: Saturday, October 9, 2021
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

West Virginia vs Baylor betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

West Virginia: Darel Middleton DL (Questionable).
Baylor: Terrel Bernard LB (Out), Jacob Zeno QB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

West Virginia is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for West Virginia vs. Baylor.

West Virginia vs Baylor predictions

Last week, Baylor went into Stillwater and lost its perfect record in a 24-14 loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Once again, Dave Aranda’s Bears showed up to play defensively but they were unable to manufacture successful scoring drives against a Cowboys defense that's allowing just 18.6 points per game and is a bit underrated defensively at this point.

The Bears will be facing a similarly tough Mountaineers defense in Week 6, but it also happens to be one that looked beatable in last week’s 23-20 loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech’s offense doesn’t resemble anything close to the one that most fans remember from the days that Kliff Kingsbury was still the head coach. The group has a pedestrian passing game, headlined by Henry Colombi. But last week Colombi threw for 266 yards in the Texas Tech win, and that type of performance should give Baylor backers a lot of hope. 

Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon doesn’t often beat teams with his arm, but he’s an accurate passer on short-to-intermediate routes and should be able to find some space to fit throws in against the Mountaineers. And if that passing game gets going, Bohanon will then use his legs to punish this defense, as he has rushed for 125 yards and five touchdowns.

He won’t hesitate to take off and pick up chunk yardage on the ground. It doesn’t hurt him that he shares a backfield with Abram Smith, who has rushed for 510 yards and six scores this year. Smith’s 7.6 yards per carry makes it so that defenses can never get too comfortable. Taye McWilliams is another big-time threat on the ground, as he’s averaging 13 yards per carry and has game-changing talent. 

On defense, the Bears have a pretty simple task in this game. Baylor needs to find a way to keep West Virginia running back Leddie Brown in check. Brown is one of the best running backs in college football and the Mountaineers don’t have an explosive passing game. Jarret Doege has just one touchdown pass over the last two weeks, and he's dangerously close to losing his job. This isn’t the type of defense to let him snap out of his funk.

This total is definitely a bit low for comfort but that doesn’t mean that the Under isn’t the right play in this game.

Four of Virginia’s five games have gone Under the total, and the Mountaineers have scored just 33 points over the last two weeks. Against a Baylor defense that has given up 24 or fewer points in all but one game this season, it’s hard to envision West Virginia finding much offense here. 

It’s worth noting that each of the last two games played between these teams has gone Under the total, with the average amount of points in those games being just 39.5. The Under is also 11-3-1 when West Virginia has played as an underdog over the last three seasons. 

College football parlays

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