If it seems like the coaching carousel has spun up to high speeds earlier than usual this season, that's because it has.
UCLA, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State have all already fired their head coaches, and it's not hard to imagine who will be next to join them.
Sam Pittman should have at least three more games at Arkansas, and if that sounds like an oddly specific span, there is exact reason to it.
Pondering Arkansas’s fate may not seem like the most pressing item as we barrel toward a ho-hum Week 6, but it may be the most consequential result from Week 5. Yes, even more consequential than anything stemming from Oregon beating Penn State or Alabama beating Georgia.
CFB Week 5 overreactions to avoid
Do not overreact to those excellent games in the Top-20. The national title odds hardly shifted.
No, really, the National Championship odds barely blinked at those results.
Early last week, there were five teams with odds of +850 or shorter at FanDuel, none of them shorter than +550. In order from shortest national title odds to longest among those five: Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Georgia, and Texas.
After Oregon upset Penn State in overtime and Alabama went on the road to upset Georgia, there are now six teams with odds of +900 or shorter at FanDuel, none of them shorter than +500. In order from shortest national title odds to longest among those six: Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Alabama, and Georgia.
Losing a game that was always seen as a relative toss-up does not much impact your chances of making the Playoff. Only quite unexpected losses do.
Your National Championship hunches entering the weekend should not waver because of a couple of one-possession games. Exhibit A: Last season, all season long, I argued Ohio State was the best team in the country. Losing to Oregon and Michigan never shifted that reality.
Douglas’ advice: Continue to lay off the futures market. By the time we get to December, you will have that much more information, and a moneyline rollover on your title pick through the College Football Playoff will pay nearly as well, if not better, as any futures odds right now.
Do not overreact to Notre Dame’s defensive showing against Arkansas. The Irish defense remains a worry.
In basketball, it is often argued that the best defense is a made basket on offense, thus giving the defense time to set against a half-court look. The math supports this. Offenses hum off opposing misses.
Similarly, scoring a touchdown helps your defense. It gives it time to know a possession is coming, an underrated perk among easily-distracted 18- to 23-year-olds, and it increases the chances the opponent has to cover 70+ yards.
Thus, Notre Dame holding Arkansas to 365 total yards and 13 points is not that impressive, given the Irish offense scored a touchdown on all six of its first-half possessions and on eight of its nine genuine possessions. Giving up 5.89 yards per play is not crippling, but it is not exactly encouraging, either.
Frankly, before the game got out of hand, the Razorbacks showed more of an offensive pulse than Notre Dame should be comfortable with.
Arkansas averaged 7 yards per 1st Down snap in the 1st Quarter. ND scored 14 in the quarter and only saw 3rd Down once. I have a hunch this 17 points won't be the highest scoring quarter.
— Tim O'Malley (@timomalleyND) September 27, 2025
Douglas’s advice: Take the Boise State vs. Notre Dame Over. The Irish defense is not as fixed as will be suggested by plenty of people this week. The Broncos’ offense is significantly worse than the Razorbacks’, but so is their defense. Well, when putting it that way, also take Notre Dame to cover any spread up to -20. That combination is suggesting another Irish rout, which given CJ Carr’s last few weeks is an entirely appropriate suggestion.
Do not overreact to how good Kansas State looked with running back Dylan Edwards back on the field. Simply put, do not trust a Wildcat.
Edwards had a 75-yard touchdown run as part of 171 total yards on 21 touches from scrimmage. He remains every bit the shifty playmaker that elevates Kansas State’s offense.
But the Wildcats were also the beneficiaries of two short fields for 10 more points. Remove Edwards’ explosive touchdown and those two short fields — things that are absolutely part of football, just not necessarily so sustainable as to be relied upon — and Kansas State had only 17 points on nine other drives, reaching scoring territory on five of them. Neither of those rates — the 3.4 points per scoring opportunity or the 55.6% quality drive rate — is high enough to inspire future faith.
Two promising drives for Kansas State, but the Wildcats didn't get a single point out of either of them.
— Kellis Robinett (@KellisRobinett) September 27, 2025
Douglas’s advice: Take Baylor next weekend. Hopefully, that spread opens as short as favoring the Bears by -3, but consider it valid up to -4. The day should come in the next month that a Wildcat validates a leap of faith, but Edwards this weekend was not that day.
CFB Week 5 overreactions to embrace
Do overreact to Arkansas’ defense. The Razorbacks have not quit on head coach Sam Pittman as badly as was seen at UCLA and Oklahoma State, but this is clearly trending in one direction.
A goal-line fumble cost Arkansas a win last week against Memphis, an ignomious loss for any ACC team. And now the Razorbacks were embarrassed in historical ways by the Irish.
Their defense is broken. And life is about to get worse, with an idle week followed by a trip to Tennessee, a visit from Texas A&M and then a visit from Auburn. Conservatively, Arkansas should be an underdog in each of those games, quite possibly by at least a touchdown in each.
Pittman’s buyout falls to $6.9 million from $9.8 million if his record since 2021 falls below .500. Right now, he is 29-27. Three more losses would cut into that buyout by $2.9 million.
Not to suggest that is not a significant amount of money — if anyone has it lying around and wants to make a point, my email address is readily available on this very website — but is an SEC school really going to sit tight for another month because of $2.9 million?
The coming idle week is the best time to part ways with Pittman.
Douglas’ advice: Tennessee needs its own get-right game, and Arkansas’s defense should represent that chance, with or without Pittman. Take the Volunteers up to -11, largely because they will cut through the Razorbacks’ defense long enough to cover the double-digit spread.
Do overreact to West Virginia’s offensive woes. Rich Rodriguez was always going to have a steep hill to climb in 2025. It has gotten only steeper.
Utah’s defense is excellent. Do not let Texas Tech’s late-game explosion a week ago distract from the Utes’ strength. Utah deserves some credit for holding the Mountaineers to just 85 passing yards and 14 points.
But much of that was simply West Virginia’s offense having no semblance of a threat. Rodriguez’s offensive system relies on specific player types in the backfield and an offensive line well-versed in certain blocking schemes. He does not have that in Year 1 of his return to Morganstown.
Thus, losing Jahiem White a few weeks ago doomed the Mountaineers. And it is quite clear to everyone they play.
Douglas’ advice: There is no West Virginia team total low enough to not take at BYU next weekend.
Rapid fire: More Week 6 bets to target
- Western Kentucky is now 4-1 against the spread, doing just enough each of the last two weeks. Delaware will provide more of a defensive test, but that could present the chance at the Hilltoppers as short favorites again. If you see a Western Kentucky -4 on the market, grab it.
- New Mexico’s immediate rebuild is so impressive that it routed its biggest rival and covered a three-score spread. Jason Eck has everything clicking right. On a short week, that is a tough draw for San Jose State. The Lobos may be as steep as 6-point underdogs. Grab that +6.
- UCLA reached the end zone just once against Northwestern. Note: Northwestern’s defense is rather atrocious. There is no team total low enough not to take the Bruins Under against Penn State next weekend. The Nittany Lions' defensive line should have some demons to exorcise.
- The Under has now cashed in regulation in seven of eight games at Northwestern’s temporary stadium, a stat that we glibly chalk up to the shores of Lake Michigan but also reflects how poor the Wildcats’ offense is. Regardless the reason, take any Under when UL-Monroe visits Evanston next weekend. No, really, any Under. There is no limit that the sportsbooks will near.
- Navy slipped by Rice 21-13, the Owls enjoying a backdoor cover that was always part of backing them at +14.5. But the Midshipmen played even more vanilla than usual. Why? Air Force looms. Navy despises its aerial brethren, and as the best of the service academies this season, Navy should be readily trusted in this rivalry. Take the Midshipmen up to -14. Anything further than that is just too risky with a service academy. That is not to say to take Air Force at +14.5; it becomes a "stay away" once north of -14.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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