Marcus Freeman and the No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish return home for a Week 6 battle with the Boise State Broncos.
The Irish have scored 112 points in their last two games, setting the stage for an intriguing clash between two playoff teams a year ago.
Read on for my Boise State vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Boise State vs Notre Dame predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Boise State vs Notre Dame spread pick: Boise State +19.5
This is an awful lot of points for a game featuring two playoff teams from a year ago. When that’s the case, I’m obliged to take the points with the underdog.
These two squads are mirror images of one another for a few reasons. Neither plays in a power conference, yet both are among the top of the sport year after year. Both are running back-driven programs. Both have offenses superior to their defenses.
Now, let’s be clear — the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a step up from the Boise State Broncos. Still, there are many similarities between these two proud programs, and I don’t expect a blowout.
Notre Dame’s defense is an untrustworthy unit, surrendering 5.8 yards per play. The Irish showed improvement on that side of the ball in last week’s surgical demolition of Arkansas, but the Razorbacks ended up firing coach Sam Pittman after the game.
Boise State’s offense averaged 520 total yards per game and 7.1 yards per play, so the Broncos are live for a back-door cover. Both teams have righted the ship after a rough start to the season, so this will be a back-and-forth game.
Early Boise State vs Notre Dame total pick: Over 64.5
Notre Dame has cashed the Over in all four contests, so it’s hard to look any other way when handicapping the total.
Jeremiyah Love (490 scrimmage yards, eight touchdowns) is the best skill player in the country not named Jeremiah Smith, and Jadarian Price (308 scrimmage yards, seven touchdowns) might also be a Top-5 back in the nation. Quarterback CJ Carr (10.5 yards per attempt) would be getting more Heisman love if the Irish didn’t give up a fourth-down, last-second touchdown to Texas A&M — he’s been that good.
Boise State allowed 7.0 yards per play to South Florida and 6.9 yards per play to Air Force. The Broncos have fallen short defensively in their two toughest tests of the year, which is a worrisome thought against an Irish offense that has scored 40+ in three consecutive games.
At this point, it seems pretty safe to say that Notre Dame will put up some crooked number on the scoreboard. That means Boise State will need to contribute some scoring without necessarily lighting it up. To that end, the Broncos have been one of the hottest non-ND offenses across the last three games, averaging 49 ppg.
Boise State vs Notre Dame odds
- Boise State vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -19.5
- Boise State vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Boise State +700, Notre Dame -1100
- Boise State vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 64.5
How to watch Boise State vs Notre Dame
- Boise State vs. Notre Dame matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Notre Dame, IN
- Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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