Alabama will feel like it has everything in front of it once again after a win over rival Georgia as it welcomes Vanderbilt to town on Saturday, October 4.
It’s another big game made bigger by College Gameday coming to town. Can Alabama exact their revenge from a season ago after Vandy pulled the upset over the Tide last season?
Take a look at my early Vanderbilt vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks for October 4.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Vanderbilt vs Alabama spread pick: Vanderbilt +9.5
There’s always debate about what’s baked into a betting line and what isn’t.
The common refrain here goes: the Alabama Crimson Tide lost at Vanderbilt last year and was embarrassed, so they’ll be out for revenge and win easily. But that logic doesn’t hold.
If a player needs extra motivation to get up for an SEC game at Alabama, they wouldn’t be on the roster. More importantly, that narrative likely forces bettors to pay a premium to back the Tide. My numbers agree, with my projection at Alabama -9, so I’m taking the Vanderbilt Commodores.
The Commodores have offensive advantages Georgia couldn’t exploit last week. They’ve faced enough competition to validate these metrics and have been extremely efficient staying on schedule, ranking Top 10 nationally in third-down success rate. Alabama, meanwhile, ranks in the 100s defensively in those same situations.
Vanderbilt also brings one of the country’s more underrated rushing attacks, ranking 16th in EPA per rush. Quarterback Diego Pavia and tailbacks Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young are each averaging over five yards per carry, giving the Dores a reliable ground game to keep drives alive and control tempo.
That combination provides a clear path to points. As long as Vanderbilt stays on schedule and avoids obvious passing downs, they have the tools to cover this number. I’ll happily take them with the points. Anchor Down.
Early Vanderbilt vs Alabama total pick: Under 56.5
I’m generally in line with the market here, so this probably won’t be a major play for me. Still, I lean Under.
Vanderbilt’s offense has been one of the slowest, most deliberate units in the country. Only five teams have taken more time per snap this season, with Ohio State the lone Power Five team among them.
With less overall talent than most SEC programs, Vanderbilt likely slows tempo to shorten games, emphasize its strengths, and mask its weaknesses. I expect the Commodores to run effectively and dictate the pace, which points to a lower-scoring game.
Alabama adds a wrinkle. The Tide will want quarterback Ty Simpson to attack a vulnerable Vanderbilt secondary. That said, Alabama itself plays slower than recent versions we’ve seen under Nick Saban. Their methodical approach combined with Vanderbilt’s snail-like tempo makes explosive scoring less likely.
So while Vanderbilt’s defense could give up some big plays, the overall pace and style from both sides still point toward a modest total. I’ll take a lower-scoring game here, with 56.5 feeling a touch high for this matchup.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama odds
- Vanderbilt vs. Alabama spread: Alabama -9.5
- Vanderbilt vs. Alabama moneyline: Vanderbilt +265, Alabama -335
- Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Over/Under: 56.5
How to watch Vanderbilt vs Alabama
- Vanderbilt vs. Alabama matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Tuscaloosa, AL
- Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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