After an early-season loss to 18th-ranked Oklahoma, the Michigan Wolverines are rolling, looking for a third straight win as they host the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Badgers have dropped two straight and are hefty 16.5-point road ‘dogs.
My early Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks have both teams continuing their current trajectories when this one kicks off at noon on Saturday, October 4, at the Big House.
Wisconsin vs Michigan predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Wisconsin vs Michigan spread pick: Wisconsin +16.5
The Wisconsin Badgers dropped their Big Ten opener to Maryland 27-10, making it six straight losses in conference play dating back to last season. Save for a 16-13 loss to Oregon, none have even been particularly close, with the margin of defeat by at least 15 points in all others.
Wisconsin currently sits 16th in the Big Ten in scoring, putting up just 20.8 points per game, and gaining 323.5 yards per contest, which ranks 117th in the nation.
Even after coming off a bye, the Michigan Wolverines are probably not the get-right opponent they need, though they should keep things within the lofty spread.
The Wolverines have gotten their swagger back after that loss to Oklahoma, hammering Central Michigan 63-3 before knocking off Nebraska in a tight 30-27 affair.
Michigan’s rush attack is lethal, churning out 253.5 yards per game, second only to Indiana in the conference, but they will be tested here. Wisconsin carries the country’s best rush defense, allowing just 50 yards per game. Even in their back-to-back losses, the Badgers didn’t allow either opponent to cross 75 yards rushing.
The good news is, Michigan freshman pivot Bryce Underwood has shown an ability to throw, racking up more than 235 yards through the air twice already.
Still, that line is just a touch too high, especially when Wisconsin’s run defense hasn’t come close to allowing 100 yards rushing in a game yet this season.
That doesn’t mean Wisconsin will pull off the upset; it just might be a boring, mid-level beatdown.
Early Wisconsin vs Michigan total pick: Over 42.5
The Over has cashed in four straight head-to-head matchups between these teams, and there’s a good opportunity for this to hit a fifth.
While both teams are stout against the run, both the Badgers and Wolverines rank in the Bottom 6 in pass yards against in the Big Ten.
Perhaps that won’t matter to Wisconsin, because Danny O’ Neil has only topped 120 yards passing once in three games, and has five interceptions to go with his five TD passes.
However, the Wolverines have just watched both Maryland’s Malik Washington throw for 265 yards and two scores, and Alabama’s Ty Simpson shred the Badgers for 382 yards and four majors.
Those are both season-high passing yard numbers for those quarterbacks, and Underwood should follow suit. Michigan has hit the Over in three of its four games, putting up at least 30+ points in all but one game.
Wisconsin vs Michigan odds
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan spread: Michigan -16.5
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan moneyline: Wisconsin +640, Michigan -1000
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Wisconsin vs Michigan
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Ann Arbor, MI
- Venue: Michigan Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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