The Florida State Seminoles will try to bounce back from their first loss of the season as they host the undefeated Miami Hurricanes for an in-state rivalry showdown in Week 6.
The Hurricanes have the more impressive overall resume this season, but the Seminoles should make this a fight at home, which is why I’m taking them to cover in my early Miami vs. Florida State predictions.
Let’s take an early look at how bettors should approach this game in my college football picks on Saturday, October 4.
Miami vs Florida State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Miami vs Florida State spread pick: Florida State +4.5
While the Florida State Seminoles’ overtime loss on the road to the Virginia Cavaliers was a moderate upset, losing a close game as a one-score favorite isn’t enough for me to completely change my evaluation of a team. The Seminoles are still one of the most dangerous and talented offensive squads in the country, especially on the ground, where they are pounding opposing defenses for 6.7 yards per play.
That should make for a great matchup against a Miami Hurricanes defense that hasn’t been hit for more than 24 points this season and is allowing just 11.5 points per game to opponents. The Seminoles should increase that total – Florida State is averaging 53.0 PPG – but this is clearly a battle of strength-on-strength, as the Hurricanes are allowing 2.6 yards per rush.
The difference in this game may come from Carson Beck, who should find ways to get the ball to Malachi Toney and his other talented wide receivers against a Florida State secondary that forced three turnovers against Virginia’s passing game, but which did allow Chandler Morris to complete 26-of-35 passes for 229 yards as well.
If I had to make a moneyline pick, I think Miami’s defense makes a big stop to win this game late. But I can’t turn down 4.5 points at home, and would take the Seminoles on the spread at 3.5 points or more.
Early Miami vs Florida State total pick: 54.5
Between Gavin Sawchuk and quarterback Tommy Castellanos, Florida State has had little trouble moving the ball or scoring on the ground this year. But Florida State’s defense is clearly an area of concern, at least against other playoff-level teams.
Their overall numbers aren’t exactly bad – the Seminoles are giving up 4.6 yards per play and only 19 ppg – but Virginia showed there are vulnerabilities that opponents can exploit if they have the talent level to be competitive up front.
Between the overwhelming offense and some defensive lapses, Florida State has managed to play to the Over in each of its first four games. Miami has bounced around the total a bit more, but I think the most instructive game might be the early-season matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. While the Hurricanes won, they did allow 24 points, showing that elite offenses can score against this swarming unit.
I expect the Florida State offense to find the same kind of moderate success as the Irish did. This won’t quite be a shootout, but there should be more than enough offense on both sides to get to the Over.
Miami vs Florida State odds
- Miami vs. Florida State spread: Florida State +4.5
- Miami vs. Florida State moneyline: Miami -192, Florida State +158
- Miami vs. Florida State Over/Under: 54.5
How to watch Miami vs Florida State
- Miami vs. Florida State matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Tallahassee
- Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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