A pessimist sees another November weekend with only one upset in the top 15 and finds it boring. An optimist sees a thrilling December around the corner.
For all the consternation and misguided broadcasts about the College Football Playoff selection committee’s decisions, things are actually rather simple: The top-10 teams in the country are well established and, for the most part, very good in different ways.
That is the recipe needed for a dramatic and entertaining College Football Playoff. That should be the headline these days, the thing for college football fans to be most thankful for.
CFB Week 14 overreactions to avoid
Do not overreact to Texas beating Texas A&M. The Longhorns are not making the Playoff, no matter how many SEC biases insist Texas should sneak in.
Texas claims it would be in the College Football Playoff if it hadn’t opened the season at Ohio State and lost there.
Great, make a claim that no one can prove, Longhorns.
Here, anyone can do it: If Texas had not learned from a season-opening loss at Ohio State, the Longhorns would have fallen short at Kentucky or at Mississippi State, two one-possession wins against some of the worst teams in the SEC.
It already took Texas two road losses to figure out how to survive out there, including one at Florida at what seemed to be the Gators’ nadir. Even after that, a third road loss came for the Longhorns when they fell by 25 points at Georgia.
Biggest margin of defeat of the teams on the Playoff bubble(ish):
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 30, 2025
Notre Dame: 3
Miami: 6
Alabama: 14
Vanderbilt: 16
Oklahoma: 17
BYU: 22
Utah: 24
Texas: 25
Good rule of thumb: Don't lose by three possessions.
This is the luxury of the 12-team College Football Playoff: The teams left out have little valid complaint; they are unquestionably flawed. Worrying about the No. 5 team in the country sometimes meant worrying that a title contender was on the outside of the bracket.
Worrying about the No. 11 team in the country does not carry that same weight, and Texas’s problematic offensive line underscores that reality.
Douglas’s advice: Ignore the SEC’s shrieks. Texas is not making the Playoff. FanDuel does not even list the Longhorns on the “Make the Playoff” odds board.
Was just taking a look at LSU's schedule next year and the Tigers will play at Ole Miss, at Auburn and at Tennessee. 🤌
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) November 30, 2025
Do not overreact to Mississippi denying Lane Kiffin the chance to coach the Rebels in the postseason, no matter how much bellyaching you hear from his representatives and their proxies.
Lane, no one in history has ever successfully kept a cake intact and covered in frosting while also eating slices of it. Duplicity always backfires.
Show some respect to both your former team and your welcoming one. If you want to move on from Mississippi, then move on.
Douglas’s advice: When an ESPN talking head insists the Mississippi administration should “let Lane finish what he started with his team,” realize that is coming from less a talking head and more a puppet.
Why should we assume that Lane Kiffin coaching Ole Miss after taking the LSU job is best for the Ole Miss team?
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) November 30, 2025
Nick Saban dumped Kiffin as OC before a national championship game in 2017 because Kiffin couldn't handle that job while preparing to be FAU head coach. https://t.co/ZyT61JXlIK
Do not overreact to Miami beating Pittsburgh, 38-7. The Hurricanes are not making the Playoff, no matter how many loud noises you hear arguing otherwise.
Yes, Miami beat Notre Dame in August. And yes, that should matter.
But do you know what else should matter? Losing to 8-4 Louisville and 8-4 SMU.
Everyone arguing for including the Hurricanes in the Playoff seems to overlook those defeats. Did they not happen?
The Irish lost to 10-2 Miami and 11-1 Texas A&M, both by one score, both to start the season. A 10-game winning streak — not to mention a 6-3-1 against the spread record in that stretch, with exactly none of those wins being within a score and only one of them within two possessions — should be factored in as much as Miami’s two losses to middling teams.
Douglas’s advice: Anyone who claims “ND is out” because Alabama beat Auburn is somehow forgetting Miami’s losses to Louisville and SMU. Encourage them to relax. FanDuel lists Notre Dame at -400 to make the Playoff while Miami is at +820. The real Irish concern — +300 to miss the Playoff — comes from BYU beating Texas Tech.
The Cougars are +385 underdogs in the Big 12 title game. That is clearly the crux of Notre Dame’s odds.
Current odds at @FDSportsbook to make the Playoff:
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 30, 2025
Notre Dame: -400
Miami: +820
Vanderbilt: +5000
Texas: Not even on the odds board
Anyone claiming Texas or Miami have Playoff chances are just making loud noises because they think you are an idiot.
ND's only worry is BYU.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
CFB Week 14 reactions to make
Do overreact to Texas Tech’s walloping of West Virginia, 49-0. If ever there was a moment for the Red Raiders to ease off the gas, this was it. And yet, Texas Tech turned eight quality possessions into seven touchdowns.
The only failure where it mattered most was an interception thrown by linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Yes, you read that correctly. Linebacker.
Texas Tech is actively and aggressively trying to get Rodriguez invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in two weeks.
Otherwise, the Red Raiders simply deliver.
Even as expectations rise, Texas Tech delivers. The Red Raiders are 8-1 against the spread against Power Four competition, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.3 points in those nine games, even including the ATS loss. Only three of those eight ATS wins were within one score of the spread.
Oddsmakers have not caught up to Texas Tech.
For that matter, look at the Red Raiders as genuine national title contenders. Their defense is too thorough to be dismissed.
Douglas’s advice: Quick, grab Texas Tech at -12.5 in the Big 12 title game. Catching it within two touchdowns will be delightful, but given BYU’s dismal offense and how far ahead of spreads the Red Raiders have regularly been, anything up to -16.5 should be within reason.
Folks, what has Texas Tech done this season to suggest to you BYU has a chance next week?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 30, 2025
Texas Tech currently favored by 12.5 and I can tell you what I am betting. https://t.co/3gaeyXgGco
Do overreact to Oklahoma’s offensive struggles. It is not that Missouri’s and LSU’s defenses are not stellar — No. 15 and 11, respectively, in expected points added (EPA) per snap against this season entering the weekend, per CFB-graphs.com. It is that the Sooners show no potency.
As dazzling as Oklahoma’s defense is, this offense has collapsed of late.
Actually, scratch that. This offense has collapsed more and more all season long.
This is the sliver of hope remaining for my very real want of Notre Dame hosting a Playoff game again because I actually had *fun* at that last year and wanna go again. https://t.co/vQhag7ITXi
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 30, 2025
The Sooners’ offense has been an asset exactly twice against Power Four competition, in Week 2 against Michigan and in Week 8 against South Carolina. Against Texas and Alabama, Oklahoma’s offense put up bottom 20th percentile performances. This weekend against LSU was even worse.
Douglas’s advice: The Sooners should still make the Playoff; take the Under in the first-round game, no matter the number. And if the spread is more than 7.5 points, take the underdog to cover.
Allow me to be the only one to say, this ACC title game could be a LOT of fun.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 30, 2025
(numbers do not include today's games / via @statsowar / CFB-graphs . com) pic.twitter.com/lKuiYVFBO3
Rapid fire: More Week 15 bets to target
-
Back Missouri State and Delaware in their bowl games. This will mean more to those programs than any other programs in the country.
Congrats to Missouri State and Delaware for making a bowl game this season in their first FBS seasons.
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) November 30, 2025 -
Fade Kansas State in its bowl game. File this under the “Do not overreact” category. Do not overreact to what players say as their seasons wrap up. These are 18- to 23-year-olds pondering many variables in life.
When your season starts with your father and brother in a fistfight with each other in Dublin, and it ends with a low-level bowl game, it will not surprise anyone if you opt to enter the transfer portal and try your luck elsewhere.
Avery Johnson on his future:
— Kellis Robinett (@KellisRobinett) November 29, 2025
"There's no doubt in my mind I want to play for Coach Klieman, and this is the place I want to be. But there are things I have got to talk to my family about and pray about. But I'm committed to this place. I love this place more than anything." -
Back East Carolina in its bowl game. If you respect that opponent, at least grab the Over. The Pirates’ offense has shown up against everyone this season, short of NC State, BYU, and Tulane. The bowl-game opponent’s defense will not be on par with those.
Mark Stoops was asked on his future, if he considers walking away. He laughed.
— Nick Roush (@RoushKSR) November 29, 2025
"You think I'm going to walk away. You kidding me? Zero percent chance I walk away. I'm gonna be here as far as I'm concerned."
He added, "Zero means zero. Zero percent chance I walk." -
Ready for worrying offseasons coming for Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland, and North Carolina. The final week of the season should not establish an entire offseason’s narrative, but the first three of those already pondered their coaches’ futures, and the fourth really should. Furthermore, Kentucky, Baylor, and North Carolina had hopes for bowl games. Instead, they hardly showed up.
No bowl game for Baylor, which lost five of their last six games.
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) November 29, 2025Maryland may as well have no-showed at Michigan State, and that’s just about the harshest thing you can say about a program. The Terrapins do not want to get involved in this year’s coaching carousel, but by the end of September, they likely will wish they had.
Well surely, this isn't the last weekend of North Carolina's season, right? The NFL's best took over a sleeping giant of a program. Obviously the Tar Heels are in postseason conversations, right?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 30, 2025
A bowl game?
Make a bowl game as a 5-7 APR team?
Huh.
NFL must be easy. https://t.co/srxZ45lD7h
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
