USC vs UCLA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Trojans Have Benefited from a Favorable Schedule

USC is the Pac-12’s best chance to return to the College Football Playoff since Washington made it back in 2016-17. But for USC to end the Pac-12’s CFP drought, they’ll need to be a one-loss conference champion... and that means securing a victory against rival UCLA this weekend.

The Trojans responded to their loss to Utah with three consecutive wins, albeit against lesser competition. Meanwhile, the Bruins are coming off a stunning defeat at the hands of Arizona, but a win over their hated rivals will keep their conference title hopes alive.

UCLA is just a 1.5-point home underdog, so oddsmakers clearly aren’t giving too much weight to that ugly loss. What’s the side to back in a matchup that’s expected to be so tight? I break it all down and bring you my best bet in our college football picks and predictions for USC vs. UCLA on November 19. 

USC vs UCLA best odds

USC vs UCLA picks and predictions

This Pac-12 matchup is intriguing on so many levels. USC is the Pac-12’s last hope to snap the conference’s lengthy absence from the College Football Playoff. However, UCLA still has a shot to appear in its first conference title game with a win. Of course, there is also the fact that these teams just flat-out don’t like each other.

UCLA QB Dorian Thompson Robinson says Bruins "want to break 60" points scored on USC in rivalry game, calls out Trojans for "cussing at us and flipping us off" in last visit to Rose Bowl: https://t.co/lKopeGctwC pic.twitter.com/WNpbULoMrM

— 247Sports (@247Sports) November 14, 2022

USC has built up its 9-1 record thanks mostly to quarterback Caleb Williams and his big arm. Williams has put up 3,010 yards while tossing 31 touchdowns, compared to just two interceptions, and he could make a push for the Heisman Trophy with some big performances down the stretch. But UCLA’s defense isn’t as bad as some of the numbers say and actually ranks 48th in opponent yards per play.

On top of that, the Trojans have not played a strong schedule this season, and some would even call it soft. They’ve played only one Top 25 opponent and lost (Utah). 

The other concern for USC is the loss of running back Travis Dye. He did everything for the Trojans and made it so you couldn’t key in solely on the USC passing game. It’s a big loss. 

Then there is a USC defense that ranks 87th in opponent yards per play and 94th in opponent yards per rush when facing FBS opponents. That unit will have its hands full against this UCLA offense. 

The Bruins are led by their quarterback-running back dynamic duo of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet. DTR has thrown for 2,385 yards while completing 71% of his passes while losing 20 touchdowns and four picks. He's also added 462 yards and seven scored on the ground. Meanwhile, Charbonnet has rumbled for 1,145 yards at over seven yards per carry and 13 touchdowns.

The combination of no Dye, a suspect schedule to this point, and the fact I think UCLA is the stronger team in the trenches on both sides of the ball mean there is value in backing the Bruins on the moneyline in this potentially epic Pac-12 battle.

My best bet: UCLA moneyline (+110 at bet365)

USC vs UCLA spread analysis

The action on the spread for this Pac-12 throwdown has been interesting to this point. UCLA opened this game as 3-point home dogs, but that number was quickly snapped up and moved all the way to Bruins +1.5 before the money started coming back on the Trojans. The line sits at 2.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

At 2.5, I still prefer UCLA on the moneyline, but it looks like there is a chance this number could get back to 3. If it does, I would love to take the field goal with the Bruins at home.

A lot of this comes back to the fact that USC just seems unproven to me. Williams has battled with his accuracy at times, as there have been four games where he’s completed less than 60% of his passes. The defense has been bad, considering the only really good offense they have faced was a Utah team that dumped 43 points on them.

If anything, I think the loss to Arizona (who we are starting to find out isn’t a terrible football team this year) will have UCLA even more focused heading into this matchup against a hated rival. The Rose Bowl is reportedly sold out with a massive student section. It should be a crazy night in Southern California.

USC vs UCLA Over/Under analysis

The total is one of the highest on the college football betting board in Week 12. It opened at 74 but was quickly bet up to 75.5. I’m inclined to agree with the early money, even at the elevated number.

While Williams won’t have Dye and isn’t the most accurate at times, there are moments where he makes you go “wow.” It’s no fluke that USC ranks seventh in total offense and third in scoring offense, putting up 42.4 points per game. And while UCLA has a bend-don’t-break defense, they bend quite a bit sometimes, allowing 26.2 points per contest.

Then there is the Bruins offense led by DTR and Charbonnet. They rank even higher in total offense (fifth), accumulating more than 500 yards per game this season and a not-too-shabby 39.5 points per game. And once again, USC's defense has struggled against better offenses. 

This one has a shootout written all over it. So, shocker, I’m leaning toward the Over up to 76.5.

USC vs UCLA betting trend to know

USC is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. UCLA.

USC vs UCLA game info

USC vs UCLA latest injuries

USC vs UCLA weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic