The Alamo Bowl between the No. 16 USC Trojans face the TCU Horned Frogs graces viewers’ television sets on Tuesday night.
USC is the presumptive favorite after putting forth a strong bounce-back season followed by an impressive recruiting class. That doesn’t mean the 6.5-point spread is justified, especially when many of its top players on both sides of the ball are absent.
Read why my USC vs. TCU predictions and college football picks are backing the underdog for the Alamo Bowl on December 30.
USC vs TCU predictions for the Alamo Bowl
Who will win the Alamo Bowl?
The TCU Horned Frogs will pull off this upset and win the Alamo Bowl. It’s been a season to forget for Sonny Dykes, but this is still a talented team that is close to full strength for the bowl game.
That provides an opportunity to build confidence heading into next season, and it starts in the Alamo Bowl against USC.
USC vs TCU best bet: TCU +6.5 (-104)
On the surface level, it makes sense to see the USC Trojans favored over the TCU Horned Frogs. After all, Lincoln Riley’s squad has the better record (9-3 to 8-4) and metrics (seventh in EPA per play on offense, 60th on defense; TCU 47th and 63rd) despite facing the tougher schedule (30th to 57th).
Still, there are other factors at play. Although the Trojans will have starting quarterback Jayden Maiava, he won’t have his top three targets (Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane, Lake McRee).
Those are huge absences as Lemon and Lane are surefire NFL players who combined with McRee (starting tight end) for 158 receptions, 2,351 yards, and 19 touchdowns.
That leaves a true freshman with 28 career receptions as the top target. The line is also shorthanded with two starters out injured and another listed as questionable.
There’s also massive attrition on the defensive side of the ball, as four of the five highest-graded players on that side of the ball have opted out. They’ll be without three of their top five plays in terms of TFLs up front, top linebacker, and top two coverage players in the secondary.
TCU will be most full force other than starting quarterback Josh Hoover, but it helps to have an experienced backup, Ken Seals, who has started 22 games in the SEC.
He’s thrown for 4,418 yards and 29 touchdowns in his career, and he provides TCU with a steady enough hand against a depleted Trojans roster to make the 6.5-point spread seem wide.
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USC vs TCU same-game parlay
USC may figure some things out eventually in this game, but it’ll take some time for the new pieces to gel. This provides TCU with an opportunity to take advantage in the first half.
Sonny Dykes’ squad has covered the first half spread in nine of their last 13 games, so they’re well-adjusted to getting out to hot starts.
Both teams are better offensively than they are defensively, so this game could be pointsy. The Horned Frogs rank 26th in tempo (snaps per minute), leading to a shootout pace.
They also don’t cover well enough defensively (87th in passing success rate allowed) or provide enough push up front (102nd in defensive stuff rate) to keep USC off the scoreboard, absences or not.
USC vs TCU SGP
- TCU +4.5 in the first half
- Over 55.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Frogs keep pressure on Trojans
TCU’s best hope of winning this game, or remaining competitive in it, is to turn things into a shootout. The Horned Frogs still have Eric McAlister to throw to offensively, along with plenty of young, talented wideouts, so they should push the pace pure usual.
USC has been dominant offensively, ranking seventh in success rate while putting up 36.5 points per game, so the Trojans will be happy to comply with the game script.
USC vs TCU SGP
- TCU first half moneyline
- Over 55.5
- USC Team Total Over 31.5
USC vs TCU odds
- Spread: USC +6.5 (-104) | TCU -6.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: USC -250 | TCU +205
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
USC vs TCU trend to know
USC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of more than a field goal. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs TCU.
How to watch USC vs TCU
| Location | Alamodome, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, December 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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