College football was built on chaos.
Every Saturday brings the possibility that a blue-blood program gets knocked off by a team nobody believed in, a spread blows up in bettors' faces, and a mid-major program makes a statement that echoes through the rankings. This page tracks the biggest upsets in college football each week during the season, with results, betting context, and the numbers behind how badly the favorites got it wrong.
The 2026 college football season kicks off in late August. Check back then for weekly upset results. In the meantime, explore the biggest upsets from the 2025 season below.
Biggest upsets of the 2025 NCAAF season
A look back at the most notable results from the 2025 college football season, ranked by point spread at kickoff.
| Matchup | Result | Spread (winner) | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA def. Penn State | 27-7 | +25 | UCLA entered 0-4 and had just fired head coach DeShaun Foster. Built a 27-7 halftime lead and held on. |
| Northwestern def. Penn State | 22-21 | +21 | Penn State's second stunning loss of the season, this time at home against a Northwestern team that wasn't given a prayer. |
| South Florida def. No. 13 Florida | 18-16 | +17.5 | A game-winning field goal as time expired gave USF the intra-state stunner over a ranked Gators squad. |
| Army def. Kansas State | 24-21 | +16.5 | The Black Knights rode their ground game to knock off the Wildcats, who entered as -16.5 chalk. |
| Stanford def. Boston College | 30-20 | +14.5 | Frank Reich's first win as a college head coach. RB Micah Ford ran for a career-high 157 yards as the Cardinal held BC scoreless in the second half. |
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What makes a college football upset?
An upset in college football is generally defined by the point spread at kickoff. The bigger the number, the bigger the upset when the underdog wins. A team winning as a three-point underdog is a minor surprise; a team winning as a 25-point underdog rewrites the narrative of an entire season. Because college football has such wide talent gaps between programs, double-digit spreads are common, and double-digit upsets happen more often than bettors expect.
The most important factor in identifying upset potential isn't the spread itself: it's what's driving the spread. A large number built on reputation rather than current form, a top program sleepwalking through a non-conference tune-up, a road game in a hostile environment, or a backup quarterback taking snaps for a heavy favorite are all conditions that have historically produced some of college football's most memorable results.
From a betting standpoint, fading a favorite in an upset scenario doesn't always mean picking the underdog to win outright. Sometimes the smart play is taking the points, where the underdog covering a large spread produces a winning ticket even in defeat. The games where the biggest upsets are most likely to occur (rivalry matchups, night games in hostile environments, non-conference games against motivated mid-majors) are exactly the spots where the closing line tends to be the least trustworthy.
College football upsets FAQs
By point spread, one of the largest upsets in modern college football history came in 2017 when Howard defeated UNLV as a 45.5-point underdog. Among high-profile upsets, Appalachian State's 34-32 win over No. 5 Michigan in 2007 remains one of the most iconic, as the then-FCS program blocked a potential game-winning field goal to complete the stunner.
UCLA's 27-7 win over Penn State was the largest upset of the 2025 season by point spread. The Bruins entered the game 0-4 and had just fired their head coach, yet built a 20-point halftime lead and held on to stun the Nittany Lions as 25-point underdogs.
Historically, college football underdogs win outright roughly 30-35% of the time, though the rate varies significantly based on the size of the spread. Teams getting more than 14 points win outright at a much lower rate, while teams getting 3 to 7 points win roughly 40% of games straight up.
The 2026 college football season kicks off in late August. Check back here each week for the biggest upsets from the weekend's slate, updated every Sunday throughout the season.
