Of the nine conference title games on tap this weekend, six are rematches — but only the Mountain West is revisiting a shootout that was decided by four possessions.
Backing UNLV to get revenge on Boise State might be a bit too ambitious in the final championship game of this iteration of the Mountain West.
Still, my UNLV vs. Boise State predictions and college football picks expect one thing: the kind of offensive fireworks we saw last time won’t be making a return when kickoff arrives at 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday, December 5.
UNLV vs Boise State predictions for the Mountain West Championship
Who will win the Mountain West Championship?
It must be recognized that these two teams have been heading in different directions for the last month. Boise State lost two in a row to seemingly knock it out of the Mountain West title picture. Upon the revival of the Broncos’ title chances, they fell behind Utah State 21-10 in the first half, and were fortunate to escape with a 25-24 victory.
Meanwhile, UNLV won four straight games to keep its conference title hopes alive. The differing trends of these two teams certainly argue for faith in the Rebels.
UNLV vs Boise State best bet: Under 58.5 (-115)
The Boise State Broncos' slide nearly out of the Mountain West championship game — which would have been just the fourth conference championship game without the Broncos in its 13 years of existence — was largely the fault of its offense.
Struggling to score at San Diego State made some sense, as the Aztecs had the best defense in the Mountain West this season. Managing just seven points against Fresno State was also almost defensible, as the Bulldogs’ defense fit in the top quarter of the country.
But those extended struggles against Utah State last weekend? With the entire season on the line? Those were inexplicable.
For that matter, scoring just one touchdown in both those losses to Fresno State and San Diego State, was a massive precursor. No matter how good the defense is, Boise State should not be held to only a touchdown in any Mountain West game.
Expect those struggles to continue as the UNLV Rebels defense has found a groove in the last month, the key to propelling them into the title game.
Across the season, Boise State’s defense has always been its strength. Its offense tailing off then creates reason to believe in an Under. Similarly, UNLV’s defense has always been its weakness. Its defense dialing in creates further reason to back the Under.
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UNLV vs Boise State same-game parlay
Explosive plays keyed Boise State's 56-31 win against UNLV in mid-October. The Rebels let that loss cost them twice, falling two weeks later against New Mexico.
But since then, their defense has been an asset in three of four games, their passing defense finally proving worthwhile in all four games. This unit will shut down Maddux Madsen.
A low-scoring game favors the underdog in general, and when points are at a relative premium, believing in the better offense yields logic.
UNLV vs Boise State 3-leg SGP
- Under 58.5
- Maddux Madsen Under 236.5 passing yards
- UNLV moneyline
Our deep-ball SGP: Colandrea in the clutch
Boise State's defense is weakest against the run. In fact, it is outright weak against the run. There is a reason UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea ran for 87 yards against the Broncos in mid-October.
UNLV vs Boise State 4-leg SGP
- Under 58.5
- UNLV Moneyline
- Maddux Madsen Under 236.5 passing yards
- Anthony Colandrea Over 36.5 rushing yards
UNLV vs Boise State game predictions
UNLV vs Boise State spread prediction
UNLV went 3-1 against the spread in the season’s homestretch, exceeding expectations by an average of 17.2 points in that stretch even when including the ATS loss. Boise State went 1-3-1 ATS since beating UNLV, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 7.6 points in that stretch even when including the ATS win and push.
UNLV vs Boise State Over/Under prediction
Rain all day on Friday should not be too much of an issue given the minimal wind that should be blowing in Boise. Do not take the Under because of the weather. Take the Under because the lesser defense is playing well these days.
Furthermore, correcting from the mid-October scoring bonanza has undoubtedly been a focus of both coaching staffs. Of the 12 touchdowns that afternoon, seven were on explosive plays and an eighth was on an interception return. Do not expect those to be replicated.
UNLV vs Boise State odds
- Spread: UNLV +5.5 | Boise State -5.5
- Moneyline: UNLV +180 | Boise State -215
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 | Under 58.5
UNLV vs Boise State trend to know
Both UNLV and Boise State have trended toward Unders to close the season, the Rebels cashing three Unders in their last four games while the Broncos hit four Unders in their last five games. Find more college football betting trends for UNLV vs. Boise State.
How to watch UNLV vs Boise State
| Location | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date | Friday, December 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
UNLV vs Boise State latest injuries
UNLV vs Boise State weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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