The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs close their series tonight on Sunday Night Baseball, with Chicago carrying a 56% win probability at Wrigley Field.
Chicago has the home-field advantage, but the starting pitching matchup gives Cincinnati a legitimate path to an upset.
I’m backing the Reds while also targeting another high-scoring game in my Reds vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30.
Who will win Reds vs Cubs today: Reds moneyline (42%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Am I sprinting to make this bet? No, but I have to take a shot on the Cincinnati Reds at this price against the Chicago Cubs. I'd play it to 45%.
Chase Burns ranks in the 99th percentile in breaking-ball run value, with his slider generating the whiffs that drive his elite strikeout numbers. Chicago has several hitters who have struggled against breaking stuff, giving Burns a clear way to attack this lineup.
Shota Imanaga throws his four-seamer more than 40% of the time and has allowed a .452 xSLG and 43.5% hard-hit rate with the pitch. Cincinnati has been producing strong contact lately, and has multiple hitters capable of attacking that fastball.
That gives the Reds enough of an offensive matchup advantage for a small moneyline lean.
COVERS INTEL: Burns owns an elite breaking-ball profile while Imanaga’s fastball, his most frequently used pitch, has allowed a .452 xSLG.
Reds vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (49%)
Chicago owns a 135 wRC+ over the last seven days, while Cincinnati sits at 129, and the first two games of this series have already produced 40 combined runs.
Burns is capable of dominating, but Chicago’s disciplined approach creates a path to more traffic and an earlier bullpen entry.
On the other side, Imanaga’s fly-ball profile is a much cleaner weakness to attack. He has already allowed 30 home runs while ranking near the bottom of MLB in both barrel suppression and ground-ball rate.
Add warm temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out at Wrigley Field, and there are multiple paths to another high-scoring game.
I’m playing the Over for 2 units.
Reds vs Cubs home run prediction: Sal Stewart (22%)
What better stage for Sal Stewart to cement his Rookie of the Year odds candidacy than Sunday Night Baseball?
Imanaga's four-seamer has allowed opponents a 43.5% hard-hit rate. Stewart projects for a .348 xwOBA against four-seamers in this matchup and has already homered in both games of this series.
With Imanaga’s fly-ball profile and favorable conditions at Wrigley, Stewart is my preferred Cincinnati home run target.
- ML/RL bets: 47-45, +2.90 units
- Over/Under bets: 53-39, +15.44 units
Reds vs Cubs weather
Temperatures should sit in the low 80s around first pitch with double-digit winds blowing out at Wrigley Field, creating a favorable environment for power and overall run scoring.
Reds vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Reds 42% | Cubs 59%
- Run line: Reds +1.5 | Cubs -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Reds vs Cubs trend
Over is 5-0 in Imanaga's last five starts during Game 3 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cubs.
How to watch Reds vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Reds starting pitcher | Chase Burns (14-3, 2.77 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.78 ERA) |
Reds vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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