My Astros vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30 are looking back the Mets at a fair price today.
After a 6-2 New York win on Saturday, the Mets can keep that momentum rolling behind Zac Thornton.
Who will win Astros vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (55%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
There's minimal data on Houston Astros 24-year-old right-hander Ethan Pecko, as he only has eight full innings in the bigs under his belt. In those two outings, he's allowed a combined seven runs on eight hits.
Opposing hitters own a .410 OBP and near .900 OPS in those games. The New York Mets bats would love nothing more than to feast on a young arm trying to find his footing.
On the other side, the Mets will send out Zac Thornton, who has been pretty serviceable, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate below 6% to opposing hitters at home this season.
Neither offense has been seeing the ball too well, which is why leaning with the more established arm is the play in this spot. Play to 58%.
COVERS INTEL: Over his last 30 hitters faced at home, Thornton owns just a 2.38 xERA, 2.03 xFIP, and 4.3% barrel rate.
Astros vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (47%)
The Mets should be able to put up some runs against Pecko, but with how well Thornton has been pitching, runs look to be at a premium this afternoon.
Both lineups own a wRC+ under 81, a wOBA under .266, and an OPS below .680 over their last 12 games. Neither is making a lot of hard contact or barreling the ball up.
Asking these two cold offenses to produce 9+ runs feels like a lot. Play to 50%.
Astros vs Mets home run prediction: Luis Robert (17%)
Despite being put on waivers, Luis Robert has been crushing the baseball. In his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a .304 BA, .739 SLG, 1.172 OPS, and 22% barrel rate.
Pecko has only faced 19 left-handed hitters so far this season, but those hitters have a .579 SLG and 1.019 OPS.
If Robert wants to show his worth to the rest of the league, he needs to continue to mash.
Backup option if he does not play: Jeremy Pena (13%)
Jeremy Pena has easily been the hottest bat on the Astros lineup, posting a .600 SLG, .350 IOS, and 16.7% barrel rate. He is the second-best long ball look in this matchup.
- 2026 Season: 440-876, -16.2 units
- Home Runs: 111-390, +18.0 units
Astros vs Mets weather
Chance of scattered showers. Otherwise, edge to the offenses on a warm day with winds blowing out at 11 mph.
Astros vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Astros 47% | Mets 54%
- Run line: Astros +1.5 (64%) | Mets -1.5 (36%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (55%) | Under 8.5 (46%)
Astros vs Mets trend
The Mets have hit the moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mets.
How to watch Astros vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ethan Pecko (0-0, 7.88 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (3-4, 2.88 ERA) |
Astros vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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