Let's kick off this beautiful Sunday with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for today's MLB slate.
In addition to my two early selections, Ryan Vilade and Hunter Goodman, I'm backing one of the hottest Orioles bats.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30.
MLB home run props for today
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| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Ryan Vilade |
11% |
 Hunter Goodman |
22% |
 Coby Mayo |
23% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 134.86x |
Home run prediction: Ryan Vilade (11%)
My first time betting on Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Ryan Vilade, who finds himself in a boom spot this afternoon against San Diego Padres southpaw Robbie Ray.
Not only has Vilade been seeing the ball extremely well, but he's been hitting the cover off it. Eight of his last 10 batted balls have been above 90.3 mph, with five of those 10 above 100.7 mph. In his last 10 games, the outfielder has a .667 SLG, .703 xSLG, and .292 ISO, while posting a 64.7% hard-hit rate and 17.6% barrel rate.
Against the last 30 right-handed hitters he has faced, Ray is allowing a nearly 17% barrel rate, 62.5% elevation rate, and 2.46 HR/9. Those hitters own a .311 xBA, .678 xSLG, .402 xwOBA, and .259 ISO.
It is hard to overlook how hard Vilade has been hitting the ball this afternoon.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, SDPA
Home run prediction: Hunter Goodman (22%)
Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman enters Sunday in a great spot to go yard off Atlanta Braves right-hander Tyle Mahle. Goodman enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where in 30 elite ratings this season, he's recorded a home run over 23% of the time.
Mahle, against the 60 right-handed hitters he has faced, is allowing over a 52% hard-hit and elevation rate while owning a .391 xBA and .604 xSLG.
Goodman, over his last 10 games, sports a .583 SLG, .652 xSLG, and .305 ISO while generating a 45% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate. Plus, over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he has a near 20% barrel rate.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, BravesVsn
Home run prediction: Coby Mayo (23%)
Cue up “Mayonaise” by the Smashing Pumpkins, we’re backing Baltimore Orioles third baseman Coby Mayo against Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs.
Mr. Mayo has been crushing the ball over his last 10 games, owning a .583 SLG, .652 xSLG, and .305 ISO, while generating nearly 60% hard-hit and over 20% barrel rate.
This afternoon will mark the Orioles slugger’s 20th elite rating of the year over on Batters-Box. In the previous 19, he's left the yard 31.58% of the time. For those looking to take a safer prop, he's surpassed 1.5 hits, runs and RBI in 63% of those games.
Against left-handed pitching, Mayo has been on fire. Over his last 60 plate appearances, he sports an astounding .786 SLG, .429 ISO, 52.6% hard-hit rate, and a near 30% barrel rate.
Springs, against right-handed hitters, has faced his fair share of turbulence. Over his last 60 batters faced, hitters are generating a 68.7% elevation rate and 10.4% barrel rate, while owning a .617 xSLG.
With seven of Mayo’s last 10 batted balls being hit above 93 mph, with four of them north of 103 mph, he could take anything Springs offers deep this afternoon.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, NBCSCA
- HR picks: 111-390, +18.0 units
Best home run combo for August 30
| Ryan Vilade |
Trade Now 134.86x |
| Hunter Goodman |
|
| Coby Mayo |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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